Do these comments on the Tigers’ rebuild attempt apply to the Orioles?

[Bahama O's Fan]

I will be judging Elias and ownership on whether they will be willing to spend when the prospects are basically ready. Will they spend to fill in the holes that do not get developed?

[spiritof66]

46 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

I will be judging Elias and ownership on whether they will be willing to spend when the prospects are basically ready. Will they spend to fill in the holes that do not get developed?

There's a related question that I'm really curious about. Suppose that a few guys -- Adley, Grayson, whoever -- establish significant value in their first few years with the Orioles, and assume the new CBA maintains the status quo as to free agency.

Will the Orioles open up the wallets and try to retain their best players by extending them before they reach free agency, or trade them while they have significant team control and value (the Tampa approach), or trade them when they get close to free agency and have much less value (the Peter Angelos approach), or make qualifying offers and try to sign them as free agents?

[HowAboutThat]

No extensions.

No matter how good the guy is, there’s somebody coming behind him who is almost as good and much cheaper

 

NO EXTENSIONS

Edited May 16, 2021 by Philip

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

I think you are expecting too much. If we aren't signing anyone long term we need to find value. My expectation is some of these guys will over perform and turn into something but the majority will not. Anything we get is bonus as far as I am concerned. I'm pretty happy with Iglesias, Harvey, Milone, Valdez, Galvis. Sure, Franco has been terrible but who was a better player out there that could hold down 3B on a one year deal? You're not going to win them all when you are talking about replacement level guys.

I can’t think of anybody who is better than Franco, but you’re assuming that means that nobody is. My job isn’t to know the market,I can’t think of anybody, But I agree that the guys you mentioned I’ve been OK, and Valdez has been quite good, but Mike hasn’t even bothered to look for replacement catchers, or worthwhile infielders.

I think Mike hopes that one or more of these guys will end up being tradable, but he doesn’t really care if they don’t. But my point is that he is at the stage where he should not be looking for guys that can be flipped, but guys that can be kept for right now because they make the team meaningfully better. He’s not trying to upgrade, and he should be. And because most of the guys we have are so bad, it should not be difficult to accomplish.

 

[LTO's]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I would rather have their rotation than ours.  I would much rather have our positional talent.

 

The Tigers had the worst rotation in baseball last year and are near the worst this year. Os are around league average. They also play in a much easier park to pitch. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, LTO's said:

The Tigers had the worst rotation in baseball last year and are near the worst this year. Os are around league average. They also play in a much easier park to pitch. 

The Tigers starters are 12th in ERA in all of baseball.  The Os are 22nd.

Tigers are 20th in FIP..Os are 24th.

I think basically every GM would trade Means for Mize.  
 

Fullmer, Turnbull and Boyd are all solid guys and better than anything we have right now.  
 

 

 

 

[LTO's]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The Tigers starters are 12th in ERA in all of baseball.  The Os are 22nd.

Tigers are 20th in FIP..Os are 24th.

I think basically every GM would trade Means for Mize.  
 

Fullmer, Turnbull and Boyd are all solid guys and better than anything we have right now.  
 

 

 

 

Sorry. That is correct I didn’t not reset the splits for this season. They had by far the worst rotation last year and have a worse team ERA this year but they are around average for their rotation.

Don’t think your Means for Mize hypothetical is anywhere near the certainty you think it is. In fact I think every GM would rather have Means on his staff this season. Mize has also lost some prospect luster from some pubs. Either way Avila is regarded as one of the worst GMs in baseball while Elias has only been around for roughly 1.5 seasons. That’s why they are under the microscope this year for their awful start and other rebuilding clubs aren’t. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Sorry. That is correct I didn’t not reset the splits for this season. They had by far the worst rotation last year and have a worse team ERA this year but they are around average for their rotation.

Don’t think your Means for Mize hypothetical is anywhere near the certainty you think it is. In fact I think every GM would rather have Means on his staff this season. Mize has also lost some prospect luster from some pubs. Either way Avila is regarded as one of the worst GMs in baseball while Elias has only been around for roughly 1.5 seasons. That’s why they are under the microscope this year for their awful start and other rebuilding clubs aren’t. 

Mize is four years younger and has two more years of team control.

So yea, teams would probably prefer Means this season if you look at it long term Mize is pretty appealing.

[LTO's]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mize is four years younger and has two more years of team control.

So yea, teams would probably prefer Means this season if you look at it long term Mize is pretty appealing.

I would be very disappointed if the Os traded Means for Mize straight up. Mize was awful last year and has a 6.03 K/9 and 5+ FIP this year. Like I said, he’s lost some prospect luster from evaluators since debuting. There has been a bevy of young pitching prospects who have come up and performed much better than that right away. That’s without mentioning how valuable Means has been this year and the good bit of team control the Os still have with him. Tigers fans/media’s big gripe with the current Detroit regime is that the player development has not been there. I really don’t think that’s the case with the Orioles recently. Means coincidentally is a great illustration of that.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

God.  I have been screaming this in my criticism of Elias and people have just told me I am crazy.

Not just prospects, but Elias assumed nothing was here sold what he had for pennies on the dollar for single A prospects who are mile away.

Not to mention they are trying to do this in the single worst time to do it for the development of prospects in the history of baseball history, if unforeseen.

You are never going to rebuild solely from prospects.  You have to spend money, you have to sign guys to short deals and see if they can be pieces.  This is a lot easier for big market teams, and that sucks, Manfred is doing his best to ruin this game.  But there's no reason you can't take chances on $10 million / 1 year deals or even $15/ 2 year deals (unless ownership is a problem)  The Yankees got an MVP candidate out of it.

I want to be clear: I posted this for discussion but I don’t think the O’s are in the same spot as the Tigers. They’ve been really bad a year longer than we have and yet now it seems they’re behind us.   

So, I don’t criticize Elias at all for what he’s done so far with regard to bringing in free agents.   I do think this winter should be a different story, if the team manages to win 70ish games with what they have.  
 

[ArtVanDelay]

30 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Mize is four years younger and has two more years of team control.

So yea, teams would probably prefer Means this season if you look at it long term Mize is pretty appealing.

Mize sucks though. 
 

Not that he can’t improve, but I don’t see any reason to think he’ll ever be more than a mediocre starter. 
 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/casey-mize-663554?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

[Camden_yardbird]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I want to be clear: I posted this for discussion but I don’t think the O’s are in the same spot as the Tigers. They’ve been really bad a year longer than we have and yet now it seems they’re behind us.   

So, I don’t criticize Elias at all for what he’s done so far with regard to bringing in free agents.   I do think this winter should be a different story, if the team manages to win 70ish games with what they have.  
 

I think we can all recognize that this team is probably ready for some impact free agents.  We didn't have to wait until next off season.

As for the Tigers they are behind us but not too far.  If in a year Fulmer recovers and Mize, Manning and Skubal round into form they will have a good rotation, whether they trade Boyd or not.

Offensively I think Candelaria, Baddoo, Torkelson, Daz, Riley Green will all be contributors in the next 2 years.

No team should solely try to build through one method.

[owknows]

6 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think we can all recognize that this team is probably ready for some impact free agents.  We didn't have to wait until next off season.

As for the Tigers they are behind us but not too far.  If in a year Fulmer recovers and Mize, Manning and Skubal round into form they will have a good rotation, whether they trade Boyd or not.

Offensively I think Candelaria, Baddoo, Torkelson, Daz, Riley Green will all be contributors in the next 2 years.

No team should solely try to build through one method.

I suspect you may ask 10 different people and get 10 different opinions.

There is no consensus "we".

I'm a fan of the Tampa Bay sustainability model. I think we've spent enough time in the desert, to enjoy a few sips from the canteen. Chugging down a bunch of free agents is what led us into the desert to begin with.

If it were mine to do, I'd look for a middle tier 3B... and stick Valaika at 2B for the duration. Otherwise, I'm standing pat and waiting for the finer wines in the basement to mature.

[connja]

I'm not sure the tigers are behind us.  They could turn the corner any moment.

2. Detroit Tigers
2020 midseason rank: 2
2020 preseason rank: 5
Top 100 Prospects: Spencer Torkelson (No. 3), Casey Mize (No. 11), Riley Greene (No. 21), Tarik Skubal (No. 24), Matt Manning (No. 25)
Top 2021 rookie: Tarik Skubal, LHP 

Led by two of the past three No. 1 overall Draft picks (Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize), two more Top 10 overall picks (Riley Greene and Matt Manning) and a late-round gem (Tarik Skubal), the Tigers are the first team ever to have five of the top 25 players in one of our Top 100 Prospects lists. More »

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

My point is that Mike’s goal at the moment is cheap rather than good. If he signs somebody cheap and they turn out to be good, well that’s great, but it’s not great because it means the team is better, but because it means he can flip the guy for a future prospect. But “cheap” is the main thing. Valaika is awful but cheap, Sisco is awful but apparently cheaper than the guys we have or could easily get( I disagree with that, but that seems to be the party line.) same for Severino, for Ruiz, for Urias. Galvis isn’t worth anything in trade but is worth his cost right now.

So the disappointment in Franco, for instance, is not that he’s terrible on the field, but that he has no trade value.

I am getting a little impatient with the rebuild, and I want him to switch priorities. I don’t want to blast a lot of money on flops such as we’ve already seen in hideous plenty, but I want legitimate good guys who are reasonably priced and can be expected to give value over the full contract length. 
That is not impossible, it’s not even difficult if you move quickly, something that Dan never did.

Also, Mike’s virtue is supposedly high tech analytics, so he should be able to see opportunity in guys that might be missed by other organizations.

I do not think he is actively trying to lose, if he is I will be very angry. But I do think that he is not trying to win, and he is deliberately avoiding things that would improve the on field product, and it’s time for that to stop.

He isn't worried about improving the on the field product this year.   So what?   He has filled the SS hole with Iglesias, then with Galvis, and both have performed.

He tried with Franco, and it hasn't worked so far.   So what.   Who would he have realistically picked up for 3B this year that would still be there when we can contend?    

I agree with some of the criticisms:   we are keeping some guys in the minors too long.   We may not spend on payroll even when it is appropriate.  

But I honestly don't care that he is using filler guys at positions where we don't have prospects ready.   And you and you haven't been able to give one example of someone we should have gotten to help and didn't.