24.7% of the way through the season

[wildcard]

The O's are on pace to go 69-93.

John Means is on pace to go 16-0, 32 starts, 208 IP,  212 Ks.   And 4 no hitters.   His 1.21 ERA is 2nd in the MLB to Jacob  deGrom .   His 0.71 WHIP is 3rd to deGrom and Gerrit Cole.  Cheating or not that that is pretty special.

Trey Mancini is on pace for 28 Homers and 130 RBI (rounded from 129.6). He is 4th in RBIs in the MLB behind Devers, Jose Abreu and Martinez.   He also has the best rate in the league for someone that went through chemo last year.

Cesar Valdez is on pace for 32 saves.    Best rate  in baseball for a pitcher that has not broke 90 mph with their fastball.

Cedric Mullins is on pace for 198 hits.   Tied for 4th in baseball behind Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Adam Frazier of the Pittsburgh Pirates.    At 175 pounds Mullins has more hits per pound than anyone in the MLB.

[Pickles]

As a team they are exceeding my expectations.

[UMDTerrapins]

I had us pegged for 71-75 wins, with improvement towards the latter half of the season. Getting Santander back and finding out how to man the back end of our rotation will be key, but we’ll also likely have to fill Harvey’s spot. I think my prediction was always a little rosy. 

[Moose Milligan]

I'd be alright with 69 wins.  

[Morgan423]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

As a team they are exceeding my expectations.

Mine too.  I'm seeing positive things out of the parts of the team that will still be a part of the team when it's go time.  And our minor league future guys are really showing something so far this year as well.  You can feel us getting closer to flipping the switch.

[wildcard]

They are right on track for me.  I picked 69 wins when the season started.

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's are on pace to go 69-93.

John Means is on pace to go 16-0, 32 starts, 208 IP,  212 Ks.   And 4 no hitters.   His 1.21 ERA is 2nd in the MLB to Jacob  deGrom .   His 0.71 WHIP is 3rd to deGrom and Gerrit Cole.  Cheating or not that that is pretty special.

Trey Mancini is on pace for 28 Homers and 130 RBI (rounded from 129.6). He is 4th in RBIs in the MLB behind Devers, Jose Abreu and Martinez.   He also has the best rate in the league for someone that went through chemo last year.

Cesar Valdez is on pace for 32 saves.    Best rate  in baseball for a pitcher that has not broke 90 mph with their fastball.

Cedric Mullins is on pace for 198 hits.   Tied for 4th in baseball behind Bogaerts, JD Martinez and Adam Frazier of the Pittsburgh Pirates.    At 175 pounds Mullins has more hits per pound than anyone in the MLB.

EXACTLY 2011 pace. Then 2012 was 93-69. Works for me!

 

2012

 

[scOtt]

I'll bet Means doesn't get more than one or two more no-hitters! SLACKER!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 minutes ago, scOtt said:

I'll bet Means doesn't get more than one or two more no-hitters! SLACKER!

 

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

EXACTLY 2011 pace. Then 2012 was 93-69. Works for me!

 

2012

 

I know it was the first time in forever, but that team was awesome to root for. Great memories!

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

I love Wildcard’s posts & analysis, thank you!

Edited May 18, 2021 by NelsonCruuuuuz

[HowAboutThat]

I started following this team during Game 162, and never looked back( though it took the 2012 WC game to admit they’d passed the Rangers) and that was 69-93.

I picked 71-75 in the poll, or maybe a bit over( was there a 76-79 choice? I might have gone with that.) but I still think the team will do better as the season goes on and we switch out the bad guys for less bad guys. So I think we shall surpass this pace.

[Frobby]

wildcard, you stole my thunder.   For years I posted an “at the quarter pole” thread that listed how various stats projected out.   Thanks for saving me the work!

So what’s real, what’s not real, and what’s still undecided?   I’ve always felt that somewhere between now and Memorial Day was around the time to start taking stats seriously.   Not that they’ll all hold, but they are no longer the product of absurdly small sample sizes.  Here’s a few thoughts.

The offensive player who seems most likely for a course correction is Cedric Mullins - his BA is 27 points above his xBA, his wOBA is 37 points above his xwOBA, his BABIP is 69 points above league average.   His numbers are going to head significantly down.   The good news: even with those corrections he should be an above average major league CF this year when the dust has cleared, and his defense is outstanding.  

Both Maikel Franco and Rio Ruiz have very low BABIPs, but when you look behind that, they are making very poor contact and their xBA and xwOBA are very close to their BA and wOBA.    I’d like to think that at least Franco will rebound, but I’m not counting on it.

I don’t see anyone else whose actual BA/wOBA are grossly disparate from expectations based on K rate and quality of contact.  Still, I feel there is way more upside vs. downside in the offense.    Lots of players are underperforming past numbers and I have to feel they will come around.   Some of the younger guys are still learning and will improve as the year progresses I think.  The offense is at 3.85 runs/game and .669.   I expect those numbers to rise, though our offense will remain below average.   

It’s too late at night for me to shift gears and talk pitching.    Offhand I don’t see likely improvement there on a group basis, but I’ll need to look a little harder.
 

 

[Beysbol]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

wildcard, you stole my thunder.   For years I posted an “at the quarter pole” thread that listed how various stats projected out.   Thanks for saving me the work!

So what’s real, what’s not real, and what’s still undecided?   I’ve always felt that somewhere between now and Memorial Day was around the time to start taking stats seriously.   Not that they’ll all hold, but they are no longer the product of absurdly small sample sizes.  Here’s a few thoughts.

The offensive player who seems most likely for a course correction is Cedric Mullins - his BA is 27 points above his xBA, his wOBA is 37 points above his xwOBA, his BABIP is 69 points above league average.   His numbers are going to head significantly down.   The good news: even with those corrections he should be an above average major league CF this year when the dust has cleared, and his defense is outstanding.  

Both Maikel Franco and Rio Ruiz have very low BABIPs, but when you look behind that, they are making very poor contact and their xBA and xwOBA are very close to their BA and wOBA.    I’d like to think that at least Franco will rebound, but I’m not counting on it.

I don’t see anyone else whose actual BA/wOBA are grossly disparate from expectations based on K rate and quality of contact.  Still, I feel there is way more upside vs. downside in the offense.    Lots of players are underperforming past numbers and I have to feel they will come around.   Some of the younger guys are still learning and will improve as the year progresses I think.  The offense is at 3.85 runs/game and .669.   I expect those numbers to rise, though our offense will remain below average.   

It’s too late at night for me to shift gears and talk pitching.    Offhand I don’t see likely improvement there on a group basis, but I’ll need to look a little harder.
 

 

Hi! May I ask where you got those stats? I'm trying to be smarter when it comes to baseball and understand stats like you do. I really wanna be able to talk baseball with all of you, but I don't know a lot and don't know the sites you go to and how you know so much. 

[Gurgi]

9 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

I know it was the first time in forever, but that team was awesome to root for. Great memories!

Remember making raids to Bostons message board to read the depression that september of 11?  Sons of Sam Horn was so much fun reading.  "Robert F...ing Andino" all they could say.  Andino beat the Red Sox three different times in like a three week time that fall.  

Imagine them hating Andino with a passion!