24.7% of the way through the season

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Beysbol said:

Hi! May I ask where you got those stats? I'm trying to be smarter when it comes to baseball and understand stats like you do. I really wanna be able to talk baseball with all of you, but I don't know a lot and don't know the sites you go to and how you know so much. 

The three sites with the most information are: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, and baseballsavant.com.    The latter of those has xBA and xwOBA. I think all three have BABIP.   

The best way to learn about this stuff is to go onto those sites, go to the player page for a player, and just explore what’s on there.    There’s all kinds of stuff, and you easily could spend an hour just familiarizing yourself with what’s on there.

Also, if you go to the MLB forum here, there’s a thread at the top called Super Stat Sticky: Get Your Learn On that has a lot of good information about where to find things.    
 

[Sports Guy]

I’m still expecting offensive improvement over the remainder of the season but I must admit that the offense is worse than I thought it would be.  
 

Mullins is far exceeding expectations but no one else is and a lot of players are below expectations.  Getting Santander back will be helpful, if he can start hitting and Mountcastle returning to form would be a huge boost.

Just gotta wonder if we see improvement from C, 3rd and 2nd and if/when Mullins declines, how far is the drop?

[TommyPickles]

I could still see this team winning 70-73 games this season.

There have been some pleasant surprises. Some of the best pitching we've seen over the past few years. (3.44 Bullpen ERA is 4th best in the AL, even after a bit of a shaky week for the pen')

Could really use a decent catcher and 2nd baseman, though.

[Orioles0615]

17 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'd be alright with 69 wins.  

nice

[scOtt]

I'm still sticking to my prediction, exactly 70 wins.

[wildcard]

With he O's already 7 back in the standings it likely that Matt Harvey, Freddy Galvis and Pedro Severino will to on the trade block in July.   Harvey and Galvis because they are free agents at the end of the season.  Severino because he will be in in 2nd arbitration year and the O's are probably not going to want pay him.  They probably will not offer arbitration so if any team will  offer something in trade for him at the trade deadline the O's will probably move him.  Adley will be the O's starting catcher in 2022.

Harvey leaving would just make more room for Kremer, Lopez, Akin, Zimmermann, Lowther  and at some point Baumann in the rotation.

If Galvis goes  Valaika and Urias would take over the SS duties.   I look for Wilkerson to be promoted soon and given a shot at 2B.  Franco has no trade value IMO and will probably stay the season at 3B.   Valaika, Urias, Ruiz and Wilkerson all have options so they can be moved up and down to Norfolk depending on production and health.   Jones and Bannon don't appear ready for the majors to me and are already being challenged for their AAA spots by Vavra and Dorrian.   I don't think Richie Martin makes it through the season on the 40 man roster if he continues his poor hitting.  They can use his roster spot for someone else.

Sisco, Wynns and Cumberland will share the catching duties  if Severino is traded until Adley is ready.  I don't expect Adley to be promoted to the majors this season.

Santander, Wilkerson and Cumberland could help the O's offense.   I don't know whether Cumberland catching would be a good thing for the young pitchers though.  i think of him   more as a hitter.

 

[scOtt]

9 minutes ago, wildcard said:

With the O's already 7 back in the standings

 

 

Just a small caveat to your post... I think our record has NOTHING to do with it. Even if we were one game back (or ahead) at the trade deadline, Elias would trade his mother if he thought it helped the organization long term.

No Angelos/Duquette trading prospects for short-term chances for Elias. I'm looking at YOU EdRod!

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, scOtt said:

Just a small caveat to your post... I think our record has NOTHING to do with it. Even if we were one game back (or ahead) at the trade deadline, Elias would trade his mother if he thought it helped the organization long term.

No Angelos/Duquette trading prospects for short-term chances for Elias. I'm looking at YOU EdRod!

They would and should do the Miller trade 100 times out of a 100.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, scOtt said:

Just a small caveat to your post... I think our record has NOTHING to do with it. Even if we were one game back (or ahead) at the trade deadline, Elias would trade his mother if he thought it helped the organization long term.

No Angelos/Duquette trading prospects for short-term chances for Elias. I'm looking at YOU EdRod!

IMO If the O's were ahead in the standings at the trade deadline Adley would be in the majors, Galvis and Matt Harvey would stay if they were doing well.  Elias is all about the future but he is not about to give up on a first place team.   

I think if the O's are within 3 games of the division lead in late July they will hold with what they have and promote Adley.  If they are more than 3 back they will be sellers.   At 7 back already they are very likely sellers.

JMO.

[scOtt]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

IMO If the O's were ahead in the standings at the trade deadline Adley would be in the majors, Galvis and Matt Harvey would stay if they were doing well.  Elias is all about the future but he is not about to give up on a first place team.   

I think if the O's are within 3 games of the division lead in late July they will hold with what they have and promote Adley.  If they are more than 3 back they will be sellers.   At 7 back already they are very likely sellers.

JMO.

Depends on the return. Yes, if they were really close, I think (I THINK ) it would sway his decision... but if the return was right he'd pull the trigger.

IF we were that close to the top it would be just like 2012. A team NOT yet ready for contention that is overachieving. IMO they screwed the pooch in 2012 and shouldn't do it again this year.

 

 

Still this is all moot... our chances of being in contention at the deadline are about 2.8%.

[scOtt]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

They would and should do the Miller trade 100 times out of a 100.

We already had a killer bullpen. That's all I'm gonna say.

[maybenxtyr]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

We already had a killer bullpen. That's all I'm gonna say.

Not to keep rehashing history, but it was a move to get Miller, and keep him away from other opponents.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

The three sites with the most information are: Baseball-Reference.com, Fangraphs.com, and baseballsavant.com.    The latter of those has xBA and xwOBA. I think all three have BABIP.   

The best way to learn about this stuff is to go onto those sites, go to the player page for a player, and just explore what’s on there.    There’s all kinds of stuff, and you easily could spend an hour just familiarizing yourself with what’s on there.

Also, if you go to the MLB forum here, there’s a thread at the top called Super Stat Sticky: Get Your Learn On that has a lot of good information about where to find things.    
 

I can fall down the Baseball-Reference.com rabbit hole without even trying. I'll go there to look up one player and thirty minutes later I'm looking up random statistics about some ball player from the 1950's. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

49 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

Not to keep rehashing history, but it was a move to get Miller, and keep him away from other opponents.

Specifically the Tigers and if you're going all in for a World Series run, I don't have have any problem with trading for a dominant relief pitcher. It's trading for players like Tim Beckham in 2017 when there was no way that O's team was going to make noise in the post season. 

[SteveA]

3 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

I could still see this team winning 70-73 games this season.

There have been some pleasant surprises. Some of the best pitching we've seen over the past few years. (3.44 Bullpen ERA is 4th best in the AL, even after a bit of a shaky week for the pen')

Could really use a decent catcher and 2nd baseman, though.

I mean, we're on pace for 69 wins despite having played an inordinately difficult portion of or schedule so far.

By the time Tampa leaves town in about 51 hours, we will have played just 5 of 43 games vs teams with losing records (12%)

In the next 62 games between Friday and August 1, we will play 29 teams that currently have losing records (47%).

Then it gets tougher again starting August 2, as only 16 of our last 57 games are against teams with losing records (28%), but that's still not as tough as the schedule we have faced so far.