What do you think of Tyler Wells?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, wildcard said:

Holt is back.   And Holt may feel that the level of competition that Grayson faces in more important right now then working with him everyday.  I don't know.  You will have to ask him.

Oh he is back?  I didn’t see that.  Good to know.

 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Development is, without question, impacted by service time.  If you say, a HS player is a FA 9 years after entering the organization and a college player is a FA 7 years after entering it, you better believe how they develop will change.

These “rules” on how they develop will change dramatically.  All of a sudden, getting guys through the system quicker will be what is done.  You better believe that.

Yes, I believe if they change the service time rules it will affect how teams handle players service time.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s absolutely the singular driving force or, the overwhelming most important one.

Again, if they change the service time rules and they say a player becomes a FA at a certain age, the development will be different and guys will be in the majors much sooner.

How much difference do you think it will make?

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Put it another way.

If a rule was in place that the player becomes a FA after their age 27 season, would we still be ok with GRod where he is now and waiting another year to bring him up?

 

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

That was a question addressed to the audience, not necessarily YOU.

This is one of the many things in sports where it has “always been done this way”, therefore people accept it, don’t question it and act like it’s how you have to do it.

If different rules were in place, people would think differently.

Agree...the two factors that impact this game the most are extending control as long as possible and where a team is regarding being competitive.  I do not fault the O's for using the rules, but the rules should be different.  And while I agree development for specific people and skill sets can and should vary, things would look much different if the rules were different. 

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How much difference do you think it will make?

Major changes to how things are currently done, depending on what the new rules are.

[Can_of_corn]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How much difference do you think it will make?

I think it very possible that your advanced college bats, say someone like Torkelson or Vaughn won't spend any time at all in the minors.  Someone like Adley might spend a couple of months.

[Sports Guy]

Btw, I think this also would help justify getting rid of the MiL teams.  Guys won’t spend as much time down there and won’t need to hit so many different levels.

[LTO's]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That said, I don’t think the Tyler Wells case tells us anything about Rodriguez    Wells has been a starting pitcher in the minors and he’s being used as a reliever on pace to throw 70 innings, mostly in low to medium leverage situations.     He’s holding his own in that role.   Would I want the O’s using Rodriguez in that role?    No, I’d much rather have him progressing through the minors as a starting pitcher.   To me that’s better training for his ultimate role than pitching in the Wells tole would be.    

You would think the group that loves to laugh at others for getting worked up over SSS wouldn’t use one relief outing from a rule 5 guy as evidence that Grayrod would be a productive big leaguer at the moment. I’m sort of dumbfounded how this has become a jumping off point for talking about him. Wells is a below average reliever and has more minor league experience than Rodriguez. The situations could not be more different.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

You would think the group that loves to laugh at others for getting worked up over SSS wouldn’t use one relief outing from a rule 5 guy as evidence that Grayrod would be a productive big leaguer at the moment. I’m sort of dumbfounded how this has become a jumping off point for talking about him. Wells is a below average reliever and has more minor league experience than Rodriguez. The situations could not be more different.

Good thing no one is doing that but don’t let facts get in the way of things.

 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Major changes to how things are currently done, depending on what the new rules are.

I’d be very astounded if MLB ever agreed that players became FA at age 27.    The median age of a first-time free agent today (for players who haven’t been DFA or non-tendered) is significantly higher than that.   Even if MLB makes concessions here (which is no sure thing), they won’t be that dramatic.   That’s just too much of a giveaway for the owners to stomach it.   If they go to a flat age approach, the age they negotiate will be older than that.    

I did a post a couple of months ago about the typical age of player debuts over several decades.   I don’t recall the details exactly, but in the last 50 years it’s never been the case that the median player debuted at 21.  I will see if I can dig that up.   
 

 

[LTO's]

16 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Good thing no one is doing that but don’t let facts get in the way of things.

 

"I mean, Tyler Wells is holding his own (yes he is older but still), so I’m guessing Grayson could as well."

24 innings with an over 5 FIP out of the bullpen in mostly low leverage situations. This is what you used as your justification for Grayson holding his own right now in the big leagues as a starter. Pretty laughable given your behavior in other threads. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LTO's said:

"I mean, Tyler Wells is holding his own (yes he is older but still), so I’m guessing Grayson could as well."

24 innings with an over 5 FIP out of the bullpen in mostly low leverage situations. This is what you used as your justification for Grayson holding his own right now in the big leagues as a starter. Pretty laughable given your behavior in other threads. 

No, my justification for Grayson is that he is really good and could come up here and be fine imo.  If Wells was my justification, I would have also called for DL Hall but I specifically mentioned him and why I didn’t ask for him to be brought up.

As for Wells, he has had issues with the long ball but his K rate is very good, his walk rate is below 3, his xFIp is barely above 4, he is throwing strikes at an above average level and he is missing bats at an above average level.

So yea, I think he is holding his own.  In a SSS of innings for a reliever, a number like ERA can be very skewed.

[Frobby]

Here’s the post where I got into the data on the age of player debuts over time.   

You can look at the details, but the median debut was never lower than 23.5 in the last 70 years.   The number of players debuting at 21 or 22 has shrunk a lot, though.   It used to be that 25% of players debuted at 22 or earlier.   Now it’s down to under 10%.   So if you said a player reaches free agency after their age 27 season, that would mean that 90% of players would reach free agency earlier than they do now.   I don’t think the union will be able to push the owners that far.   

[Just Regular]

After the trade deadline, it will be a juicy push/pull to see if the team gives any of Adley/Bradish/Baumann/Hall/Rodriguez/Vavra/Smith a bigger chunk of the two months to get as much of the Ryan Mountcastle Adjustment Period (TM) out of the way before next year.

Rodriguez was the fourth High Schooler taken in the 2018 draft - the first three are all already at the highest level.

Hey, last time I googled for Carter Stewart Japan Stats I don't think I got a B-Ref page.   0.82 ERA seems kind of good.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=stewar004car

Stewart still might get that dig on Rodriguez a few years out of "My 2025 salary is $30M, how about you bro?"

[LTO's]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

In a SSS of innings for a reliever, a number like ERA can be very skewed.

In a SSS literally anything can be very skewed. You can point out that he's got good strikeout numbers and a low walk rate. I will point out that he's giving up home runs at double the league average. And again, these are for the most part, extremely low leverage situations. You either believe that SSS are pretty much worthless or you don't. It's fine to backtrack, but you absolutely were using Tyler Wells as a comparison to Rodriguez. That's foolish. I think Grayrod is a stellar prospect. But even the most ardent pro-player evaluators would balk at moving him into the big league rotation after only 6 starts above low A.