2022 early look top prospects

[wildcard]

I think Elias is looking for his SS.    Callis says Druw is a plus SS.  If Druw hits in the spring I think that will be Elias' pick.   If he doesn't than Elias probably takes the tenth best guy who will take a low bonus.

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias is looking for his SS.    Callis says Druw is a plus SS.  If Druw hits in the spring I think that will be Elias' pick.   If he doesn't than Elias probably takes the tenth best guy who will take a low bonus.

I would hope Elias isn’t dumb enough to corner himself into one position, especially someone who is years away from being at this level and who knows if they will be able to stay at that position.

[RZNJ]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias is looking for his SS.    Callis says Druw is a plus SS.  If Druw hits in the spring I think that will be Elias' pick.   If he doesn't than Elias probably takes the tenth best guy who will take a low bonus.

Could be but you are assuming a lot and a lot of things will likely change between now and then.  I do not think Elias will pass on what he considers an elite player at the #1 spot.   Is there a "can't miss" player like Rutschman was?  

[Chuck A]

57 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Could be but you are assuming a lot and a lot of things will likely change between now and then.  I do not think Elias will pass on what he considers an elite player at the #1 spot.   Is there a "can't miss" player like Rutschman was?  

There are several "extremely toolsy" guys with possible 80 grades heading into the new season but who knows how this season will/might separate them.  Termarr Johnson supposedly has an 80 hit tool but is playing SS, but projects to be 2B at best.  Elijah Green is off the charts but has a lot of swing and miss in his hit tool, although the raw power, fielding, arm are elite.  Andruw Jones Jr is all around toolsy, no flaws but his youth, is playing SS although he projects to be CF by all reports.  Then there are a slew of SS and OF college bats that could elevate.  Pitching is thin as all get out.  Right now anyway.

[panick]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I think Elias is looking for his SS.    Callis says Druw is a plus SS.  If Druw hits in the spring I think that will be Elias' pick.   If he doesn't than Elias probably takes the tenth best guy who will take a low bonus.

Considering all the SS's Elias has drafted since he's been with the O's, if he's still looking for one you have to question his ability to evaluate amateur players. There is also the chance that a high school player could "grow out" of a position.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, panick said:

Considering all the SS's Elias has drafted since he's been with the O's, if he's still looking for one you have to question his ability to evaluate amateur players. There is also the chance that a high school player could "grow out" of a position.

Regarding your first sentence, I don't think A+B=C.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Regarding your first sentence, I don't think A+B=C.

I’d agree.   You don’t find can’t miss shortstops in the spots where Elias has drafted shortstops.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d agree.   You don’t find can’t miss shortstops in the spots where Elias has drafted shortstops.  

2-1?

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

2-1?

 

You might get a good prospect there, but not a can’t miss one.   Henderson has looked like a very good pick so far, but his odds of being an above average major league SS are maybe 25%?    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

You might get a good prospect there, but not a can’t miss one.   Henderson has looked like a very good pick so far, but his odds of being an above average major league SS are maybe 25%?    

I don't think he sticks at short but I do think that 2-1 is high enough that it should be possible to snag one.  Allowing of course for the idea that anyone can bust and no one is a true "can't miss" shortstop out of the draft.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he sticks at short but I do think that 2-1 is high enough that it should be possible to snag one.  Allowing of course for the idea that anyone can bust and no one is a true "can't miss" shortstop out of the draft.

Put it this way: Henderson was the 42nd pick in the draft.   Of the 59 players chosen in that spot, three have been worth 10+ rWAR.   The top SS drafted there was worth 0.8 rWAR.    So, while it’s not like impossible to draft an above average SS in that spot, the odds are very much against it.   I certainly hope Henderson beats those odds.   

[RZNJ]

Put it this way. Just because you draft a player as a SS doesn't mean you expect them to be a ML SS.  

[Paul in Virginia]

2022 MLB Draft - Mock Draft 1.0 — Prospects Live

 

Has us taking Jones at 1.1.

 

 

Edited January 6, 2022 by Paul in Virginia

[RZNJ]

The only video I saw of Druw Jones, he looked like a beanpole.  I know the bloodlines but you have to hope he really develops physically.   The all sound great before they are drafted.  The more I read the less I think there will be a no brainer at #1. Maybe things change over the next 6 months.

[baltfan]

56 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The only video I saw of Druw Jones, he looked like a beanpole.  I know the bloodlines but you have to hope he really develops physically.   The all sound great before they are drafted.  The more I read the less I think there will be a no brainer at #1. Maybe things change over the next 6 months.

buck used to say that is what you want.  You don’t want a guy that looks like a grown man at age 17. There isn’t room to develop.  He cited Jeter as an example of a kid who was barely shaving when drafted.