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DocJJ

2022 early look top prospects

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19 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Wildcard, you have a lot of guys getting full slot at 1:1.  I don't agree.  If Jones is such a good SS, why does every draft source consider him a CF?   You have Elias drafting by position and searching for LH hitters.  Again, I disagree.  If he thinks Druw Jones is the best player and a CF, he'll take him.  Their top bonus guy in the Dominican was neither LH or a SS.

Callis says Jones is a plus defensive SS.   He plays CF because his team has a SS and needs a CF.  He has the talent to be  a very good CF like his dad.   But if he can be a plus SS that is where the O's need him.

Elias has drafted a switching catcher, and two left-handed outfielders in the 1st round.   Elias probably knew he was going to make left field deeper a couple of years ago and drafted accordingly.  There is a pattern there.   But if he can get a plus defensive SS the would probably matter more.

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31 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

I am not concerned about Johnson size.  I am concerned about his arm strength which is rated average.  That probably make him  a  2B.   I don't think the O's should draft a 2B  1:1.

 

 

I don’t understand this line of thinking.  It’s not like good hitting 2B are a dime a dozen.   The average 2B had a .731 OPS last year.   Having a really good hitter at 2B would be very advantageous.   
 

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47 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t understand this line of thinking.  It’s not like good hitting 2B are a dime a dozen.   The average 2B had a .731 OPS last year.   Having a really good hitter at 2B would be very advantageous.   
 

Well here is my thinking is on this subject.   1.1 is special so you want a special player.   SS is a high value position.   The player needs a good arm and range.   3B needs a good arm and good reflexes.   CF need speed and  range.     2B can have an average arm and if they hit they are fine.   That is easier to find.   You don't need 1.1 to find a 2B.  

Johnson has an average arm and is probably not a SS.   So for me I wouldn't pick him as a 2B 1.1.    Especially because he will command a lot of money.  Draft wise he is a lot like Austin Martin who the O's passed on.  An expensive 2B.

I could see Elias signing Delauter for underslot if he does not pick Jones.  Or he might take Lee as a 3B.

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17 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well here is my thinking is on this subject.   1.1 is special so you want a special player.   SS is a high value position.   The player needs a good arm and range.   3B needs a good arm and good reflexes.   CF need speed and  range.     2B can have an average arm and if they hit they are fine.   That is easier to find.   You don't need 1.1 to find a 2B.  

Johnson has an average arm and is probably not a SS.   So for me I wouldn't pick him as a 2B 1.1.    Especially because he will command a lot of money.  Draft wise he is a lot like Austin Martin who the O's passed on.  An expensive 2B.

I could see Elias signing Delauter for underslot if he does not pick Jones.  Or he might take Lee as a 3B.

Well, we disagree.   Obviously all things being equal, I’d prefer a SS to a 2B.   But when I hear “best high school hitter I can ever remember” from a guy like Jim Callis, then to me all things are not equal.   

Now, I’ve said dozens of times that there’s no reason to get too fixated on one player before the pre-draft season is even played.   So, I’m definitely not saying I think Johnson should be our pick hands down.   Let it play out.   But if the “best high school hitter I’ve ever seen” tag sticks through Johnson’s senior year, I’d be very hard-pressed to pass that up.  

I should add, I’ve seen at least one scout who said he’d be a high-end defensive 2B.   We’re not talking Jeff Kent or Dan Uggla here.   Though honestly, you could probsblt justify picking a Kent (55.5 rWAR) at 1:1.    

 

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Baseball America has an updated article on the top 100 prospects for the draft.   On Druw Jones:

 

"Jones has posted loud exit velocities now and scouts think he can grow into above-average power as he fills out his frame."

Elias and Mig seem pretty big on exit velocities.

 "He’s the best defensive center fielder in the class, with tremendous instincts and athleticism, as well as 70-grade speed."

 

 "Jones has also shown impressive actions at shortstop in workouts, and it wouldn’t be crazy for a team to try him there"

Not crazy to try him at SS but if you are drafting him with the intent on putting him at SS sounds like far from a guarantee to pay off.

 

On Termarrr Johnson:    Scouts skeptical of Johnson will point to limited projection and supplemental tools; 

 

I am guessing that Druw Jones is more a scouts player and I would guess if Elias goes HS player he would lean in that direction.

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5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

 

Elijah Green jumped on the first pitch fb a hit a rocket into LF for a double.  It was pretty much straight away LF but the fielder was so deep Jones easily took 3rd and the hustling Green took 2B.  Both look really fast.  

 

Thanks so much for the recap, that was great to read and really appreciated the breakdown. 

The description of the Greene AB immediately made me think of a former hyper-talented outfield prospect who went 1/1 in his draft, and would many years later hit a rocket double into LF on a first pitch FB. Delmon Young. (not actually comparing the two as players but your play-by-play description made me think of that play). 

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I found dates of birth for the top high school players on the USA Baseball website.

Termarr Johnson was born June 11, 2004.

Druw Jones was born November 28, 2003.

Elijah Green was born December 4, 2003.

https://www.usabaseball.com/player/termarr-johnson

https://www.usabaseball.com/player/druw-jones

https://www.usabaseball.com/player/elijah-green

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That gives Termarr approximately the same half-year edge Samuel Basallo has on Maikol Hernandez.

Hoping for 3 September Shorebirds to back-fill Adley.

Until it isn't, a 2022 thing for me is going to be Grayson Rodriguez is going to get the pitcher equivalent of Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle's under 130.0 at-bats to retain prospect eligibility.   I hope he starts 28 baseball games (Tides open home on Tuesday 4/5) and 25 of them are here, but we'll see.   Adley and Grayson aren't Mountcastle, so I'm curious to see the tone of Elias and the club's spring quotes while we wait for the actions that will speak louder than words.

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On 2/5/2022 at 3:30 PM, Just Regular said:

That gives Termarr approximately the same half-year edge Samuel Basallo has on Maikol Hernandez.

Hoping for 3 September Shorebirds to back-fill Adley.

Until it isn't, a 2022 thing for me is going to be Grayson Rodriguez is going to get the pitcher equivalent of Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle's under 130.0 at-bats to retain prospect eligibility.   I hope he starts 28 baseball games (Tides open home on Tuesday 4/5) and 25 of them are here, but we'll see.   Adley and Grayson aren't Mountcastle, so I'm curious to see the tone of Elias and the club's spring quotes while we wait for the actions that will speak louder than words.

If they change the service time rules, you might see more of them either way.

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I don't see them going underslot at 1.1.  I can't point to track record of the previous few years, but I can point to industry analysts see a marked improvement in the O's system over the last few years.  Yes, the system could use more depth (i.e. justification for underslot).  But with 1.1, I think they go best talent and write the big check.  With probably less than $40m payroll and the fan base needing a shot in the system, I think they go for whoever they see as the best player.

Feels like there are three names consistently floated in the top 5 (Johnson, Jones, Green) in various mocks.  And a handful of other names who get in there as well.  

Johnson or Jones for me.  Hard to pass on am 80 grade hit tool (assuming Elias sees it as an 80 as well) in Johnson.  Think I would go Johnson and peddle to the metal offense.  But I think Elias goes Jones for the full package.  Hard to say one has a safer floor than the other, but Jones' defense and speed doesn't hurt his chances.  Neither does his lineage.

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The question is who do they value as the best player and is there a gap or significant gap between 1-5 on their board.  BA may put Johnson at 1:1.  The Orioles may feel the difference between Johnson and Brooks Lee is negligible but they can leverage Lee into a well below slot bonus or vice versa.  They may simply value a guy like Delauter as #1 on their board when industry consensus has him at 5 or lower.  If there is someone #1 on their board with a significant gap to #2 then my belief is that they will take #1 even if required as much as full slot.

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