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DocJJ

2022 early look top prospects

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or Brady Aiken (2014), or Micky Moniak (2016), or Royce Lewis (2017). Or Bryce Harper/Carlos Correa.

There are good and bad, but seems to be a fairly high bust rate depending on how far to go back. But sure, if you're lucky to see a generational talent like Griffey/Harper, by all means, go for it. In the absence of that, it seems like having the extra experience/data on a college player is advisable.

And if that's true at #1, it would seem to translate to #2, #5, etc., where there needs to be a somewhat significant talent delta between the less experienced high school option and the more tested college option, with the tradeoff being upside versus probability of success.

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On 7/20/2021 at 11:35 AM, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t think we are gonna get the #1 pick. Diamondbacks seem to be on some next level losing that we can’t even comprehend. 
 

There’s so much time between now and then, hard to speculate who will be there for us when we pick second or third. 

 

Arizona has won four in a row.  Hope they keep it up!

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On 7/20/2021 at 11:35 AM, Moose Milligan said:

I don’t think we are gonna get the #1 pick. Diamondbacks seem to be on some next level losing that we can’t even comprehend. 

Diamondbacks are currently on a pace to lose 112, while the Orioles are at 109. With 60+ games left in the schedule that’s almost a toss up. Things get interesting when you look at the two teams’ opponents the rest of the way. A quick check of the remaining schedule shows the O’s with 6-8 more games against winning teams than AZ. I’m betting we finish 2021 with the worst record in MLB. 

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8 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Diamondbacks are currently on a pace to lose 112, while the Orioles are at 109. With 60+ games left in the schedule that’s almost a toss up. Things get interesting when you look at the two teams’ opponents the rest of the way. A quick check of the remaining schedule shows the O’s with 6-8 more games against winning teams than AZ. I’m betting we finish 2021 with the worst record in MLB. 

The D-backs win, the D-backs win!!! 
 

One step closer....

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35 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Diamondbacks are currently on a pace to lose 112, while the Orioles are at 109. With 60+ games left in the schedule that’s almost a toss up. Things get interesting when you look at the two teams’ opponents the rest of the way. A quick check of the remaining schedule shows the O’s with 6-8 more games against winning teams than AZ. I’m betting we finish 2021 with the worst record in MLB. 

The thing about this "be the worst for first (pick)" strategy that is concerning (if we are buying into the strategy, which I guess at this point you gotta root for something) is that for this current iteration of the Orioles, we already have pretty much the worst team we can field. The Diamondbacks have players that other teams are going to be interested in trading for and they're going to trade them, so they are going to get worse. If we're not trading Mullins, we're pretty much going to keep playing the way we are I'd imagine (Also not advocating for trading Mullins). I guess you could trade Fry, Sulser, and T. Scott, but it's not like they're all that reliable anyways, but it'd make our already volatile, overworked bullpen worse. And given the pedigree of our starters, Valaika might need to become a full time 'pen arm. 

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3 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Gaining on Arizona but does anyone have confidence he would actually take Greene? I’d hope so but…

I actually do think he will if things continue as they currently are.

Greene does seem to be the type of player you just don't pass on.  Like Adley.

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13 hours ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Agreed but as you know, I have lost a lot of confidence in Elias, but I gotta think he would take him.

We will see in 10 months whether Greene is still the consensus no. 1.    Over the years I’ve seen people wringing their hands over several supposed no brainer no. 1 picks that in fact weren’t drafted no. 1 because either someone else played great and overtook them, or because they lost some shine in their final pre-draft season.  So, it’s just premature to worry about who Elias might pick in next year’s draft.   

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We will see in 10 months whether Greene is still the consensus no. 1.    Over the years I’ve seen people wringing their hands over several supposed no brainer no. 1 picks that in fact weren’t drafted no. 1 because either someone else played great and overtook them, or because they lost some shine in their final pre-draft season.  So, it’s just premature to worry about who Elias might pick in next year’s draft.   

I do think it is an interesting exercise to ponder what caliber of prospect would be needed to convince Elias to abandon his preferred underslot strategy in the first round and pay full or above slot to a player.

Someone like Greene, if he continues on his current path, might be such a player.

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45 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I do think it is an interesting exercise to ponder what caliber of prospect would be needed to convince Elias to abandon his preferred underslot strategy in the first round and pay full or above slot to a player.

Someone like Greene, if he continues on his current path, might be such a player.

I suppose.  I think the answer depends on just how big a talent gap Elias believes there is between the BPA and the next guy (or group of guys), and what their bonus demands are.   Overall I’m suspicious of underslot strategy, if you think the difference in talent is clear.  

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Just now, Hazmat said:

If Elias sees Jung as being able to start for us at 3B within 1-2 years (or anyone else in the infield) while having an impact bat, I would understand if he was the pick over Green.  

From what little I've seen of Green he looks like the type of guy that could start for a team within 1-2 years.

 

 

 

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