2022 early look top prospects

[Just Regular]

I read a story this morning mentioning a Steve Cohen quote that draft pool dollars are worth 5X their actual dollar value, and speculating his Mets should just take Josh Bell every round and high school Adley Rutschman in the 20th round and give all 20 of the draftees whatever they wanted to sign....damn the draft penalties, full speed ahead.    The penalties are only 100% and the return may be 400% so if you have $100mm to burn go for it.    All 20 of you are Coby Mayo or better and eat our dust in 8 years.

I don't believe for Elias it is only about best player.    Choosing simply the best player also involves opportunity cost to deploy other super-empowered draft pool dollars differently.

If Elias values Jones at $8.8mm and Jones wants $8.8mm, and Elias values Lee at $8.4mm and Lee will sign for $7.4mm, the Economic Analyst probably says that a Jones selection "wastes value".   Some fantasy leagues use a salary cap auction instead of straight draft player acquisition process, and it is same principle - you don't always maximize value buying Mike Trout or Barry Sanders or LeBron James or Alex Ovechkin.    Even though MLB keeps the facade of "straight draft", I feel the dynamics unroll more according to salary cap principles.    You want surplus value on every selection and every dollar spent...paying full par price only seldom and grudgingly.

Now if in the case of Rutschman and I hope Jones the talent at the top of the bell curve is so distinctive it transcends squeezing the margins like that, things are easier.    But I have no doubt the $$$/WAR shredder is running on the Top 5-10 candidates, and Decision Sciences is considering stuff like that.   

[RZNJ]

I agree they have a board with an order but there may not be, and probably isn't a consensus, on that order within the Orioles draft room among scouts, evaluators, and tech.  It may not be as cut and dried as you think.  Obviously, Ciolek and/or Elias make the final call.

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

No big deal but that's a bit much. We know you're good.  I'm sure the school puts out stats and I'm sure he's gotten plenty of attention and local press.  No need to toot your own horn. Be cool and let everyone else do it for you.  He's proud and he should be but it rubs me the wrong way.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No big deal but that's a bit much. We know you're good.  I'm sure the school puts out stats and I'm sure he's gotten plenty of attention and local press.  No need to toot your own horn. Be cool and let everyone else do it for you.  He's proud and he should be but it runs me the wrong way.

He's a kid in high school.

I'm fine with it.

 

 

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's a kid in high school.

I'm fine with it.

 

 

We disagree. Shocking!  Haha

Not a big deal but ....

[Hazmat]

17 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

No big deal but that's a bit much. We know you're good.  I'm sure the school puts out stats and I'm sure he's gotten plenty of attention and local press.  No need to toot your own horn. Be cool and let everyone else do it for you.  He's proud and he should be but it rubs me the wrong way.

Would it be wrong to admit that I'm surprised he only had 7 doubles?

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We disagree. Shocking!  Haha

Not a big deal but ....

If you are looking for a reason not to take someone...

[Brooks The Great]

I'm coming around to the idea of taking either Jones or Jackson Holliday, with Holliday being underslot and also improving as he fills out. Not a fan of taking Brooks Lee #1, who sounds like an Austin Martin type to me. Lee has also had surgery on both his knee and hamstring, which is a red flag. But I need to take a look at some numbers and video of his most recent season. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you are looking for a reason not to take someone...

Never said any such thing.  Even said it wasn't a big deal.  Don't know how can take what I said even remotely as suggesting it's a reason not to take him.  Simply said it rubbed me the wrong way.  Sheesh!

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Hazmat said:

Would it be wrong to admit that I'm surprised he only had 7 doubles?

Haha. 65 hits, 33 walks, 72 runs scored.  Pretty good percentage and, yes, I know there are other ways to reach base.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Never said any such thing.  Even said it wasn't a big deal.  Don't know how can take what I said even remotely as suggesting it's a reason not to take him.  Simply said it rubbed me the wrong way.  Sheesh!

Oh sorry, I thought you were advocating going in a different direction if that is what Elias wanted to do.

[RZNJ]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Oh sorry, I thought you were advocating going in a different direction if that is what Elias wanted to do.

I am advocating that.  That doesn't mean he will.  He might take Jones.  I hope he does and Jones is great.   If he doesn't take Jones I believe it will be because he doesn't agree with the general consensus on Jones.

You are trying to connect that with me saying Jones' post rubs me the wrong way.  Whatever floats your boat.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

 

If my math is good, that means he struck out 9 times in 151 plate appearances.  That might be the most impressive number on here!

Put it this way, I won’t complain if Druw Jones is our choice.  

[RZNJ]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If my math is good, that means he struck out 9 times in 151 plate appearances.  That might be the most impressive number on here!

Put it this way, I won’t complain if Druw Jones is our choice.  

College stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  HS stats should be taken with the whole shaker.  

[Frobby]

Just now, RZNJ said:

College stats should be taken with a grain of salt.  HS stats should be taken with the whole shaker.  

Well of course.  I actually looked to see if I could find the stats of the other players on his team, but I don’t see them.  

By the way, his school won the state Class A Private championship yesterday.  His team won 18-3 in the clinching game with Jones allowing the 3 runs in a 1.1 inning pitching appearance.  I don’t know if he pitched regularly or if this was a guest appearance in a blowout.   I did notice that someone posted in response to his tweet about his “successful season,” “Dad never lost a game on the mound.”   So maybe he did pitch semi-regularly.