Where is the O's pitching staff headed

[wildcard]

The post is my opinion.

I think its easy to see that the O's would like the 2022 starting staff to be JohnMeans, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Kyle Bradish and Michael Baumann.    Heath and development may get in the way of that happening but  that is where they would like to go.  

The quick promotion of Bradish was kind of ground break for Elias who have been known for the slow promotion of top prospects.   Bradish, a 4th round pick by the Angels out of New Mexico State,  spent the 2019 season in A+ ball, the 2020 season at the Alternate Site and only 3 starts at AA Bowie this season before his promotion to AAA Norfolk.   The O's hope is that he competes well at AAA and is ready for the O's rotation in 2022.

Bradish's promotion may be a precursor to the promotion of Grayson to AA in the next few days or weeks..   There he will join DL Hall and Adley Rutschman as his battery mate.    If those three do well in AA it will be no surprise to see a mid season promotion of all three to AAA in preparation for being in the majors in 2022.

Baumann is come off and injury suffered at the Alternate Site in 2020.   His rehab at Delmarva went well and now he move to AA Bowie to join the DL Hall,  Adley and hopefully soon Grayson.  He too may be moving to AAA later this season to be ready for the major league rotation next season.

I don't state any of the as being a surprise to posters on the OH.  Tony in his 2021 Prospect Rank has Adley #1, Grayson #2, DL #4,  Baumann #6 and Bradish #18 though I believe the events of the last few weeks would move Bradish much higher should Tony revisit his ranking.   MLB Pipeline has the first three ranked the same as Tony with Baumann #7 and Bradish #12.

I believe that the Bradish move to AAA and  Adley placement at AA show that Elias is ready to aggressively promotion top prospect should they perform well. 

Its my believe that Elias is ready to put a winning team on the field in 2022 if the above players progress through he rest of the 2021 season as I expect they will and be ready to be in the majors in 2022,

So what about the 2021 rotation

Believing that the above players will be ready for 2022 is why I believe it will be near impossible for another team to pry John Means away from the O's at the July trade deadline or over the offseason.  He will be the rotation anchor this year and next. IMO Matt Harvey has to go deeper in games over the next few starts or he will be DFA'd.    If he does pitch better he could stay until the deadline and may through the 2021 season.  From where we are now it seems unlikely that he has any trade value.

Kremer and Zimmerman has a long leash in part because there is no one to replace them and they are young starters.   Hyde/Elias will also put up with Jorge Lopez 4 inning starts because he goes 4 pretty well and they need him for now.   Baumann could progress from AA to AAA to the majors later this season because he is on the 40 man roster.   Akin will have to show the can at least go 5 innings to win a spot in the O's rotation.  I expect he will be sent to AAA to prove he can accomplish that.   There will be room made in the rotation if he successfully proves that to O's management. Lowther, who I like a lot, and Alex Wells have similar problems.   They have to show that the can be successful at AAA will low 90 fastballs.  It will probably take the better part of a season to prove that.   

Tyler Wells has looked good so far this season in the pen.  He could progress to become a start later this season.  Mac Sceroler is still rehabbing at the Sarasota site.  I would expect him to begin a month long rehab any time now that will have  him climb through the minors and end up being promoted to the majors in late June.  Whether he is a starter or reliever over the last 3 months of the season will depend on how he pitches and what spots are open on the O's pitching staff.

Konner Wade, 29, has started the season well at AAA.  He is showing the ability to go 5 innings and has a 0.57 ERA over 3 games and 15.2 innings.   Not being on the 40 man roster and the fact the Hunter Harvey and Dillion Tate will will need spots in the next few weeks will probably play a role in when and if Wade gets a call to the majors.

I type all this became the OH has increased talking about trading Means (something I do not see happening) and that the OH is turning increasing negative with the loses piling up.   I believe the O's strategy is not about winning now but also the winning will come as early has next season.    The starting staff is one of key elements that will have Elias flip the switch this off season and put a winning club on the field in 2022. 

Thanks for reading.

 

[GuidoSarducci]

Besides Means it is a 

[ThomasTomasz]

Around baseball, I’ve heard that the alternate site has been counted as a development year at a high A or AA affiliate, at least from the prospect reports I’ve followed for my dynasty league players. 
 

that’s seems to be the case with Bradish, as he was promoted to AAA after a fast start at AA. In this case, he is jumping from AA fairly quickly, but also not in a sense of the alternate site

[Three Run Homer]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The post is my opinion.

I think its easy to see that the O's would like the 2022 starting staff to be JohnMeans, Grayson Rodriguez, DL Hall, Kyle Bradish and Michael Baumann.    Heath and development may get in the way of that happening but  that is where they would like to go.  

 

 

I believe that you've correctly identified the five players currently in the O's system who are most likely to be good MLB starting pitchers (one of them already is).  But that doesn't mean that the O's envision this as the starting staff in 2022.   In particular, GrayRod would not have started the season at A-ball if the O's were planning for him to be starting the 2022 season in the starting rotation.  I think he's a late-2022 callup at the earliest, if all goes well.

Bradish and Baumann are the two names on your list who have the best chance to get a callup later this season and compete for the starting rotation in Spring Training next season.  DL Hall has had a couple of brilliant starts and another start where his control issues resurfaced.  I think the O's would be wise to take their time with him.  

If the O's get Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker in the draft next month, they would go to head of the class as potential rotation additions in late 2022 or sometime in 2023.  

What all of this means is that O's fans can look forward to a much better starting rotation in the future than they have now, but 2023 is a more realistic ETA than 2022.    

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

5 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

 

If the O's get Jack Leiter or Kumar Rocker in the draft next month, they would go to head of the class as potential rotation additions in late 2022 or 2023.

What all of this means is that O's fans can look forward to a much better starting rotation in the future than they have now, but 2023 is a more realistic ETA than 2022.    

I agree with this 100%. 2023 and oh boy do I want Leiter!!!!

[Moose Milligan]

I hate trying to analyze and project.  It's a fools errand.  Bradish is off to a hot start, gets promoted, and all of a sudden we're projecting him to be a fixture in our ML rotation as soon as next year.  

But whatever, @wildcard is making it sound like we'll have the second coming of Palmer, Cuellar, McNally and Dobson as soon as next year.  The cynic in me can't let it slide, so I'll bite.

So many things have to break our way in order to have a rotation of Means, G-Rod, Hall, Bradish and Baumann.  Means is the only one we can count on and it still remains to be seen if he can carry this performance through the rest of the season and into next season.  Is he a one year wonder?  If he's still pitching like this in May of 2022, I think we'll know if we have something.  

Injuries.  Which one of these guys is going to have to have Tommy John?  You know it's coming.

Manipulating service clock time.  If staying healthy and if these guys all continue to perform, I do believe they'll arrive in Baltimore, perhaps as early as next summer as brother wildcard predicts.  But we all know that an MLB franchise will game the service clock to gain an extra year of control.  If that somehow doesn't change in the next CBA, you can bet the Orioles will hold any/all of those guys back for a couple months next summer and we'll have to hear @Can_of_corn whine incessantly about it.

Innings limits.  Even if G-Rod, Hall and Bradish are in Baltimore next summer, their innings will most likely be limited.  We already saw them delay a start for Means, you can bet that won't be the last time that happens this summer.  I can even see them shutting Means down towards the end of this summer due to the jump in workload from last years short season to this years full season.  So they'll do the same for other young pitchers, too.  You're not going to see G-Rod, Hall, etc, throw 180+ innings across AA or AAA and Baltimore in a single season.  

A winner in 2022?  Hardly.  Try 2023, and that's if everything breaks right.  That's if all of these guys continue to deal and make a seamless transition to the majors and stay healthy.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Besides Means it is a 

Scene: And end thread. 

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I hate trying to analyze and project.  It's a fools errand.  Bradish is off to a hot start, gets promoted, and all of a sudden we're projecting him to be a fixture in our ML rotation as soon as next year.  

But whatever, @wildcard is making it sound like we'll have the second coming of Palmer, Cuellar, McNally and Dobson as soon as next year.  The cynic in me can't let it slide, so I'll bite.

So many things have to break our way in order to have a rotation of Means, G-Rod, Hall, Bradish and Baumann.  Means is the only one we can count on and it still remains to be seen if he can carry this performance through the rest of the season and into next season.  Is he a one year wonder?  If he's still pitching like this in May of 2022, I think we'll know if we have something.  

Injuries.  Which one of these guys is going to have to have Tommy John?  You know it's coming.

Manipulating service clock time.  If staying healthy and if these guys all continue to perform, I do believe they'll arrive in Baltimore, perhaps as early as next summer as brother wildcard predicts.  But we all know that an MLB franchise will game the service clock to gain an extra year of control.  If that somehow doesn't change in the next CBA, you can bet the Orioles will hold any/all of those guys back for a couple months next summer and we'll have to hear @Can_of_corn whine incessantly about it.

Innings limits.  Even if G-Rod, Hall and Bradish are in Baltimore next summer, their innings will most likely be limited.  We already saw them delay a start for Means, you can bet that won't be the last time that happens this summer.  I can even see them shutting Means down towards the end of this summer due to the jump in workload from last years short season to this years full season.  So they'll do the same for other young pitchers, too.  You're not going to see G-Rod, Hall, etc, throw 180+ innings across AA or AAA and Baltimore in a single season.  

A winner in 2022?  Hardly.  Try 2023, and that's if everything breaks right.  That's if all of these guys continue to deal and make a seamless transition to the majors and stay healthy.  

Great post.   Yes the five of them probably can't go 180 IP each in 2022.  But that is why Kremer, Zimmernann, Lowther, T Wells and Sceroler are being developed.  To fill in and take over when injuries occur or a break is needed.

[Moose Milligan]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Great post.   Yes the five of them probably can't go 180 IP each in 2022.  But that is why Kremer, Zimmernann, Lowther, T Wells and Sceroler are being developed.  To fill in and take over when injuries occur or a break is needed.

Well thanks.  But I think you're higher on Kremer, Zimmermann, Lowther and the rest than I am.  IMO, these guys are better than a David Hess type, but not by much. Not enough to make a difference.  

That's fine if one of them is your 5th starter, but these guys can't be a 2-4.  

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Well thanks.  But I think you're higher on Kremer, Zimmermann, Lowther and the rest than I am.  IMO, these guys are better than a David Hess type, but not by much. Not enough to make a difference.  

That's fine if one of them is your 5th starter, but these guys can't be a 2-4.  

If any of them are around if (when) the Orioles get good again they are bullpen arms. With maybe one of them being the fifth starter. 

Adley when he comes up should be a boost because Severino/Sisco don’t do much to help out the pitching staff. 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

If any of them are around if (when) the Orioles get good again they are bullpen arms. With maybe one of them being the fifth starter. 

Adley when he comes up should be a boost because Severino/Sisco don’t do much to help out the pitching staff. 

I'm not buying that these guys are bullpen arms.  Maybe 15-20 years ago they would be.

But IMO, if you're coming out of an MLB bullpen today you need to be throwing in the high 90s.  And if you're not, you need to have some filthy secondary offerings.  

None of these guys have that.  Their stuff is just merely average.  Not one of these guys has a power fastball.  And not one of them has a wipeout slider, devastating changeup...not one above average pitch that makes you say "Damn, that's something to build on."

Full disclosure, I thought the same thing about Means when he came up initially, I think a lot of us did...but he obviously found something that worked.  But for every guy like Means that figures it out, there are dozens of guys like Tyler Wilson, David Hess, etc.   

I'm not ready to give up on Kremer, Zimmermann and Lowther but my initial impression is that their stuff isn't great.  

In regards to AR, I agree but I don't think a catcher is going to be able to make these guys significantly better than what they are.  

[wildcard]

24 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Well thanks.  But I think you're higher on Kremer, Zimmermann, Lowther and the rest than I am.  IMO, these guys are better than a David Hess type, but not by much. Not enough to make a difference.  

That's fine if one of them is your 5th starter, but these guys can't be a 2-4.  

We don't know which ones will develop into solid starters.    It will not be all of them but if one or two do they can be the 5th starter when one of the top 5 is out.

[Moose Milligan]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We don't know which ones will develop into solid starters.    It will not be all of them but if one or two do they can be the 5th starter when one of the top 5 is out.

You're right, but the early returns aren't encouraging.  But they gotta keep sending them out there.

[HowAboutThat]

We have plenty of warm bodies, let’s see them all. Lopez Has shown everyone except Brandon that he is a four inning/~70 pitch guy at best, So there’s no reason not to pair him with someone like Akin, who can relieve after 3-4 and give ~4 innings of completely different pitching, and from the south side too.

Right now Akin is languishing in the bullpen but he’s still a projected starter. Why not put him on a starters schedule and give him the other half of Lopez’ starts? Or the first half perhaps?

 

 

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, Philip said:

We have plenty of warm bodies, let’s see them all. Lopez Has shown everyone except Brandon that he is a four inning/~70 pitch guy at best, So there’s no reason not to pair him with someone like Akin, who can relieve after 3-4 and give ~4 innings of completely different pitching, and from the south side too.

Right now Akin is languishing in the bullpen but he’s still a projected starter. Why not put him on a starters schedule and give him the other half of Lopez’ starts? Or the first half perhaps?

 

 

Akin has to figure how to not throw so many pitches per inning.