BA's Orioles top 10 list is coming Wednesday

[jamesenoch]

Does anybody have a BA subscription? We're going to need some chat tidbits, which starts at 3.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2008110501&rnd=1

Not many questions so far, but here are 3 of the more interesting ones :

Q: John from Pensacola, FL asks:

Is Kieron Pope a lost cause? It doesn't seem like he's made any adjustments..

A: Will Lingo: I wouldn't say he's a lost cause yet just because he hasn't stayed healthy enough to get the at-bats he needs to find out if he can tap into his tremendous raw power. Coming off shoulder surgery this year he still didn't play every day, and was mostly at DH with a few games a week in the outfield. He obviously strikes out way too much, and the main thing he's working on is just seeing pitches better, recognizing breaking balls and letting the ball get deeper before he commits to swinging. He guesses way too much now and tries to outthink the pitcher, but the only way to cure something like that is with at-bats. So let's see if he can have a healthy season playing in the outfield every day and then we can more fully judge him.

Q: Jon from Northeast asks:

I am curious why David Hernandez was left off your list. At age 23 he put up a 2.70 ERA in AA, K-ing 166 in 141 IP with almost a 2.5 K/BB rate...what am I missing?

A: Will Lingo: He will certainly be in the 11-15 range when you read the full top 30 in our Prospect Handbook, so it's no slap against him that he doesn't make the top 10. But I would say overall the feeling I get from those who have seen Hernandez is that he has a pretty low ceiling and gets his strikeouts more from deception than overpowering stuff. He has a 92-93 mph fastball and good slider, but his changeup isn't there yet. I think the Orioles would actually like him to not pitch for strikeouts as much to keep his pitch counts down. Most people see him more as a bullpen guy than a big league starter, so that's why you don't see him in the top 10.

Q: Mike from Tampa asks:

What is wrong with Pedro Beato? If he's really pushing 95 with his fastball, any off-speed pitch whatsoever should yield better results than he has the past two seasons. He's been simply horrible.

A: Will Lingo: Beato is one of the players I'm most interested in seeing next year. I think some people have already written him off, and after the 2008 season that's certainly understandable to a degree. His velocity just wasn't there this season, and no one seems quite sure why. There were reports of arm trouble, but he was checked out a couple of times and no one ever found any physical problems. The Orioles worked on his delivery in instructional league and apparently his stuff was back to where it was when he was drafted. He went down to the Orioles' Dominican complex to work more, though there are no plans for him to pitch in winter ball. So we'll just have to see what we get from Beato when '09 opens.

[Frobby]

Here are a few excerpts from BA's scouting reports on our top 10 (I've taken 1-3 sentences out of a 4-paragraph scouting report on each, which I think is within OH guidelines):

Wieters - Ramon Hernandez is under contract for one more year (with a club option for 2010), so Wieters may open 2009 at Triple-A Norfolk. He'll reach the majors at some point during the season

Tillman - While Tillman shows the ability to throw strikes consistently with all his pitches, he still needs to sharpen his command. And while his changeup has become a usable pitch, it's still clearly No. 3 on his list and he needs to go to it more...Tillman's overall package and early success at a high level make him the best bet among the Orioles' three prized pitching prospects.

Matusz - Few pitchers come into professional baseball with better secondary stuff than Matusz's.....Matusz will have to rely on his fastball more as a pro pitcher.

Arrieta - The Orioles thought Arrieta could get his velocity back with minor mechanical adjustments, and they were right. His fastball peaked at 96-97 mph in 2008 and showed explosive late movement, and he got stronger with more work....Arrieta could have as many as three plus pitches to go with his fastball, but they all need work. His slider has the most potential, but his changeup should also be a good pitch as he uses it more....Some observers believe Arrieta will be better than both Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz.

Reimold - The Orioles could use his power, but they have seen that rushing players to the big leagues has not served them well in recent years, so some Triple-A at-bats probably would be a better idea.

Erbe - His fastball still touches the mid-90s, though he usually works in the low 90s, and his slider was more consistently a plus pitch. His two-seamer showed better sink and life and allowed him to work down in the zone more.

Rowell - Put simply, Rowell needs to grow up. He still has his own hitting coach, meaning he and the Orioles often are working at cross-purposes.

Patton - Patton's arm strength is back and Orioles officials say he looks free and easy, so he'll pitch without restrictions in spring training after taking the winter off.

Snyder - All of Snyder's value lies in his bat....Snyder has put in the work to become a better hitter, and he'll need to do the same on defense to avoid being a man without a position.

Mickolio - If Baltimore is patient with Mickolio and gives him time to develop, he has the stuff to set up or close in the big leagues. He could use more seasoning in Triple-A, but his arm will be mighty tempting to the big league staff.

[Frobby]

Will Lingo: Beato is one of the players I'm most interested in seeing next year... The Orioles worked on his delivery in instructional league and apparently his stuff was back to where it was when he was drafted. He went down to the Orioles' Dominican complex to work more, though there are no plans for him to pitch in winter ball. So we'll just have to see what we get from Beato when '09 opens.

I thought this was the most encouraging thing I've heard about Beato in a while. Anything else noteworthy in the chat?

[Scrat1]

I thought it was strange that they said Reimold has the best outfield arm. Better than Markakis? Really?

[PaulFolk]

I thought it was strange that they said Reimold has the best outfield arm. Better than Markakis? Really?

Markakis has been in the majors for three years. He's not eligible for the prospects list.

[Scrat1]

Markakis has been in the majors for three years. He's not eligible for the prospects list.

Hah. I'm an idiot.

[jamesenoch]

I thought this was the most encouraging thing I've heard about Beato in a while. Anything else noteworthy in the chat?

Here are several more that I thought were interesting :

Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:

Does Pat Burrell seem like a fair comparison for Nolan Reimold?

A: Will Lingo: I think Reimold is a much better athlete than Burrell, and his bat is not as much of a sure thing as Burrell's was. Interestingly, though, I did hear a Burrell comparison when discussing Brandon Snyder, just in the fact that Snyder's bat is pretty much his whole game at this point. The comp wasn't necessarily to say that Snyder would hit like Burrell, but just to make the point that if a team has to accept well-below-average defense, you'd better be able to rake.

Q: John from Pensacola, FL asks:

The Orioles took a couple of interesting HS pitchers in Bobby Bundy and Jesse Beal. Where do you see them starting out next season?

A: Will Lingo: Quite a few questions about the O's 2008 draft class, and those are two of the more interesting arms. Still too early to get a real good read on either of those guys. Bundy didn't get much work in the summer as he came back from a knee injury, but he's an eighth-round pick whom the Orioles considered a top three-round talent, and they paid him like it, giving him $600,000. His fastball touches 94 mph. Beal is a high school kid who fell to the 14th round because of signability and a commitment to Maryland. He's 6-foot-7 and earned a Chris Volstad comp, except a little more physical. He's up to 92 now but obviously has plenty of room for projection. I think where they start will depend on spring training. Wouldn't be bad for them to stay in extended spring and open in the NYP.

Q: Glenn from Ellicott City asks:

It was disappointing to see Luis Hernandez listed as the starting SS in your 2011 projected lineup. Is there any hope that Miclat can progress rapidly through the system and spare us that horror? What is Miclat's upside? Brian Roberts light?

A: Will Lingo: As another Luis Hernandez lament (which I'm not posting) mentioned, the future lineups are not an exact science. Some say Miclat is already the best defensive infielder in the organization, so the defense should be there. He has changed his approach at the plate to change his load, and that apparently made a big difference, but he's still a long way away. With Hernandez, at least you know what you're getting. But no, I don't think he's really the shortstop of the future. The bad news is that I don't really see a bona fide shorstop between Hernandez and Miclat; Blake Davis feels more like a utility guy.

Q: Pete from Downers Grove Ill asks:

Could we get your thoughts on Ryan Adams (2B)? He didn't make your Top 30 last year, but put up respectable numbers this season.

A: Will Lingo: Nice player but probably no more than a utility player at best. Good runner, strong defense.

Q: James from North East, MD asks:

Why Mikolio at #10? Why him above above pitchers like Spoone, Britton, and Hernandez, and above positional players like LJ Hoes, Xavier Avery, and Henson?

A: Will Lingo: In short because he could end up being a dynamic back of the bullpen guy. The other pitchers in the running are mostly lower-ceiling guys or guys like Spoone with major questions (in his case a shoulder injury). The bats you mention are all too far away to project what they'll be with any certainty.

Q: Jacob from Bethesda asks:

Can you tell me a little bit about Tyler Henson? Does he profile as a possible every day ss or more of a utility guy or too early to tell?

A: Will Lingo: Henson is a great athlete who's probably not suited to third base. There's some thought of moving him back to shortstop, or maybe even center field, but his bat has more value if he stays in the infield. He also worked at second base in instructional league.

Q: Robert from Glen Burnie Maryland asks:

Matt Angle is a guy that intrest me. After a rough start last year he came on strong. Scouting reports already have him playing a major league quality center field. Do you think he can hit enough to make his way to the big leagues?

A: Will Lingo: Angle is a little guy who's a plus runner and knows how to play. He's a smart hitter, good bunter and good basestealer, and a good center fielder as well. The question will be if he's good enough to be a big league center fielder, or will produce enough with the bat if he moves over to left.

[wickedwitch]

Q: Pete from Downers Grove Ill asks:

Could we get your thoughts on Ryan Adams (2B)? He didn't make your Top 30 last year, but put up respectable numbers this season.

A: Will Lingo: Nice player but probably no more than a utility player at best. Good runner, strong defense.

Strong defense?

[baseball4evr17]

Q: Pete from Downers Grove Ill asks:

Could we get your thoughts on Ryan Adams (2B)? He didn't make your Top 30 last year, but put up respectable numbers this season.

A: Will Lingo: Nice player but probably no more than a utility player at best. Good runner, strong defense.

Strong defense? I thought he had some trouble this year. He did commit 52 errors.

[Hank Scorpio]

Strong defense?

Yeah, WTF is Will Lingo watching???

[wildcard]

Here are a few excerpts from BA's scouting reports on our top 10 (I've taken 1-3 sentences out of a 4-paragraph scouting report on each, which I think is within OH guidelines):

Great news on Patton. The O's could sure use some good news on their pitching prospects.

[Frobby]

Strong defense?

Strong defense? I thought he had some trouble this year. He did commit 52 errors.

Yeah, WTF is Will Lingo watching???

He probably got confused. My guess is he meant Blake Davis.

[slappy12]

Yeah, WTF is Will Lingo watching???

Exactly!! BA has lost alot of credibablity with me!! I don't think they know what they are talking about half the time. Mickolio at 10!! Give me a break!! I can name several pitchers in the organization the has a better upside then him.