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5/26: Gunnar's Big Night


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    • Elite players is what win titles, for the most part. Get as many elite guys as you can. Stars and scrubs is and always will be the best way to build a roster (although that name is misleading because scrubs really just means cheap player and cheap player doesn’t mean scrub..but it gets the point across).
    • So you believe Cowser has well below average power because that’s what 10-15 is?
    • I'd rather pass on Cease and keep Norby, Ortiz, Kjerstad and Cowser in the system.   I know you have to give up value to get value.  But the cost to acquire good starting pitching in terms of money and prospects has inflated so astronomically that I start to wonder if we might just be better off auditioning Povich, McDermott, Seth Johnson, Cole Irvin and seeing if anyone can stick...?     I'd probably be willing to part with Beavers, Wagner, Fabian, Stowers and I can see maybe trading one top guy (but not Mayo, Holliday or Basallo).
    • Let’s use the Orioles 2023 season as a general case study and compare with a study I learned about via well known journalist and author, Malcolm Gladwell, Revisionist History podcast. (Season 1,  Episode 6, “My Little Hundred Million”. )   https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/revisionist-history/id1119389968?i=1000372836942   At minute 12:15 or so, Gladwell discusses whether it is a greater help to a sports team if the worst player on the roster is replaced with a better player or if the team brings in an even better player as its top star.  That is, does it help more to strengthen your strongest link or your weakest link? His conclusion is: It depends on the sport. In basketball one player can dominate the court in offense and defense. So improve your top player. In soccer, a tital team sport improve the weakest player.   It set me thinking is baseball a strong link or weak link sport?   It seems that in constructing the 2023 roster, Elias, whether intentionally or not, used the improve the weakest links strategy.    Gibson replaced Lyles McCann replaced Benboom Frazier replaced Odor.  Additional improvements occurred with adjusting playing time levels of players in the organization for both 22 and 23.  The result was a stellar 101 win season!   The Orioles 2023 regular season experience suggests that baseball is a strengthen the weakest links sport.    But then the playoffs. The consensus seems to be we lacked the superstar who can carry the team.    It seems that baseball in the playoffs is more of a strong link sport.    So, to put it together, the 2023 Orioles season experience suggests that the regular season is improved with an improve the weak link strategy. While playoffs often need a superstar.    So, if this theory holds true, do the Orioles need to specifically add more proven All Star level players or do we simply depend upon the hope that one of these years we will have a good player get hot at just the right time?
    • Anyone considered for extention has insurance for that case.  Nothing like an extention for sure but I know the family of a top 5 pick who carried a $10m insurance policy in college prior to being drafted.  Any agent at that level should have his clients insured.
    • Looking at which numbers?
    • That's the whole point.  Other teams aren't going to give up more in players/prospects than the Yankees gave up AND pay Soto $33 million.
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