How bad is our defense, really?

[Frobby]

It seems like the last three nights have been a parade of terrible defensive plays.   The team is terrible, it’s in a bad slump right now, and it’s tempting to say that bad defense is a big part of the reason why the team is so bad.  But is it?

The team has committed 37 errors this season.  That’s fifth fewest in the AL, and below the league average of 40.  In June they’ve made 10 errors in 13 games, which is worse than their April/May performance.

The O’s have allowed 17 unearned runs on the year.   That is the fewest in the AL, and well below the league average of 27.   In June, despite the recent foibles, they’ve allowed only 3 unearned runs in 13 games.   

The advanced metrics tell a somewhat mixed story.    Fangraphs UZR really likes the Orioles, ranking them +6.5, fourth best in the AL.    Their overall defensive metric has us at +8.5 which is second best in the AL.

But other advanced metrics disagree.   On BB-ref Rtot has us at -19 on the year, -5 in June.    Rdrs has us -10 on the year but +3 in June.    Statcast’s Outs Above Average has us at -8 on the year, though at 0 (average) for June.

When I look at this jumbled mess, I come away with three conclusions:

1.   The standard metrics overrate our defense.   There’s no way you can watch this team on a regular basis and conclude they are an above average defensive team.  

2.  At the same time, the defense is not as big a contributor to the team’s woes as one might think.   

3.   The problem really hasn’t been more acute in June overall.   It’s really been this Celveland series where it’s stuck out like a sore thumb.   

Finally, I leave you with this: when you’re losing, the misplays stick out in your mind, but every team makes some.   Look at last night’s game.    We were all incensed by the rundown play where Ramirez ended up on 3B.   But what about the Cleveland play where the first baseman threw to the wrong fielder who was standing five feet to the right of 2B, and then Galvis advanced to 3B on unsuccessful the relay throw to 1B, because nobody covered 3B?  I’d argue that play was as bad or worse than the Orioles’ play.  

[Sports Guy]

Well first of all, there are a lot of errors being made that aren’t errors..they are mental mistakes that are just as costly.

Secondly, UZR certainly likes some of the guys.

Hays has very good UZR numbers, as does Santander

Problem is, it’s a SSS for them.

Mullins and Galvis are slightly above average.

First base has been about league average.

UZR even likes Franco.

By my eyes, the OF is good when healthy and the right guys are out there.  First and SS are fine.  Not great but hurting you either.

Third, second and C are the problem areas imo but more than any of it, again, it’s the mental issues.  The team isn’t winning and when you are long winning, these mistakes occur.

[Natty]

How bad is our defense? You tell me.

https://streamable.com/m/keegan-akin-in-play-run-s-to-jose-ramirez

[Philip]

I was surprised when DJ didn’t get an error on that awful throw yesterday( he eventually was given an error, I presume the scorekeeper changed his mind) but that illustrates all the “Sloppy” bad baseball that doesn’t show up in the stats. 

Couple games ago when MC was in left, he either threw in late or to the wrong base on a catch allowing a runner to advance. That’s just stupid. Bad awareness. Bad instincts.

Who covers third? Apparently nobody. Who covers second in a run down? Nobody. But don’t those fools know the drill? That’s not just sloppy, it’s stupid.

People speak of “good baseball instincts.” If we grant that instincts are a real and good thing, we have to also grant that bad baseball players don’t have them. Wilk’s dropped foul catch the other day wasn’t bad instincts, it was just a sloppy play and that happens to everyone.
But failing to execute a drill on a rundown that Brandon says “nobody practices the drills More than we do” indicates a fundamental lack of the basic knowledge of what to do in a given situation. I’m those situations, instinct takes over because there’s no time to carefully react. Everything happens too fast. Good instincts and good training take over and guide the process. The EXECUTION might fail, because we are human. But the concept and process should be automatic.

We need better players. We HAVE better players. And even if we don’t have better players, we damn sure don’t have worse players.

[Philip]

20 minutes ago, Natty said:

How bad is our defense? You tell me.

https://streamable.com/m/keegan-akin-in-play-run-s-to-jose-ramirez

So Galvis screwed up by not covering second, Franco screwed up by not backing up Galvis, and Severino screwed up by not covering third. 
idiots.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Philip said:

So Galvis screwed up by not covering second, Franco screwed up by not backing up Galvis, and Severino screwed up by not covering third. 
idiots.

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

So it's the fault of the GM and the players.

Got it.

[spiritof66]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So it's the fault of the GM and the players.

Got it.

Hyde's remarks, which I find pretty disturbing if they reflect his true feelings rather than just some temporary disgust with his team's miscues -- also leave open the possibility that he best [he and his coaches] can do" isn't very good. I can't evaluate the quantity or quality of the coaching/teaching, but I hope someone is doing that. 

[Sports Guy]

28 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So it's the fault of the GM and the players.

Got it.

Well, it kind of is.  I would certainly put it at their feet well before the coaches.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, it kind of is.  I would certainly put it at their feet well before the coaches.

Sure.

But wouldn't you expect some sort of statement to the effect of "Me and the coaches also have to improve"?  

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure.

But wouldn't you expect some sort of statement to the effect of "Me and the coaches also have to improve"?  

Why?  You know, everyone wants to treat everyone with kids gloves and not offend people.

If Hyde and his staff are out there doing everything they can and the players are too stupid to not cover a base, it’s not their fault.  
 

The errors being made is stuff you learn your entire baseball life.  If they don’t know to hit the cutoff man or cover a base on a rundown or whatever, why should he take responsibility for the that?  
 

As it is, he has been dealt a sh*t hand, with terrible players and he knows that he may never get a chance again.  Taking blame for something that isn’t his fault is probably not something that is high on his priority list.  I get why people want to hear the cliches but I don’t personally feel the need to hear it.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Why?  You know, everyone wants to treat everyone with kids gloves and not offend people.

If Hyde and his staff are out there doing everything they can and the players are too stupid to not cover a base, it’s not their fault.  
 

The errors being made is stuff you learn your entire baseball life.  If they don’t know to hit the cutoff man or cover a base on a rundown or whatever, why should he take responsibility for the that?  
 

As it is, he has been dealt a sh*t hand, with terrible players and he knows that he may never get a chance again.  Taking blame for something that isn’t his fault is probably not something that is high on his priority list.  I get why people want to hear the cliches but I don’t personally feel the need to hear it.

I don't want to hear it, but I expect to hear it and when I don't, I wonder why.

He was also dealt a pretty decent hand.  He gets to manage in the majors with no expectation to win and a whipped media market.

[webbrick2010]

We have been playing a lot of weak arms in the OF, most notably DJ Stewart

How well do the metrics capture throws that miss the cutoff, or Tampa taking an extra 90 feet on any ball fielded by Stewart.

Not sure how advanced they are, but certainly the eye test says this team plays terrible "team" defense.

[Camden_yardbird]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

So Galvis screwed up by not covering second, Franco screwed up by not backing up Galvis, and Severino screwed up by not covering third. 
idiots.

So this is not cut and dry because there are runners on requiring initially that the pitcher cover home and Franco hold the bag at third.

On the hit, Mancini goes to the relay which is correct, galvis goes to second also correct, valaika loops to 1st (correct).

Once Mancini gets the ball you get the rundown. On the rundown both Galvis and Valaika are in the right place.  Franco should have been faster to second as the 2nd in the rundown line, and the pitcher (who no longer needs to cover home) should go to third (failure).  The catcher should stay at home or potentially go to first for the run down (although Mancini is technically 2nd to cover 1st base there).

The secret failure here is the left fielder.  Their job on this play is to backup a potential throw to third so when Franco goes up to backup second he should be filling in at third.

Not quite what you were saying.  The failures are.

1. Franco, for not hustling down to second on the run down.  Although he also shouldnt abandon third until the left fielder arrives.  Somewhat mitigated failure.

2.  The LFer is the big failure here.  He is almost in sole possession of the gaff allowing Ramirez to 3rd.

3.  The pitcher who can be seen walking around in no man's land in the middle infield.

4. Galvis, not for position but a bad rundown in which he throws the ball to early to first.

https://spiderselite.com/2016/02/24/baseball-cutoff-and-backup-pitchers/

http://probaseballinsider.com/baseball-instruction/outfield/outfield-backing-up-plays/