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How bad is our defense, really?


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9 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So this is not cut and dry because there are runners on requiring initially that the pitcher cover home and Franco hold the bag at third.

On the hit, Mancini goes to the relay which is correct, galvis goes to second also correct, valaika loops to 1st (correct).

Once Mancini gets the ball you get the rundown. On the rundown both Galvis and Valaika are in the right place.  Franco should have been faster to second as the 2nd in the rundown line, and the pitcher (who no longer needs to cover home) should go to third (failure).  The catcher should stay at home or potentially go to first for the run down (although Mancini is technically 2nd to cover 1st base there).

The secret failure here is the left fielder.  Their job on this play is to backup a potential throw to third so when Franco goes up to backup second he should be filling in at third.

Not quite what you were saying.  The failures are.

1. Franco, for not hustling down to second on the run down.  Although he also shouldnt abandon third until the left fielder arrives.  Somewhat mitigated failure.

2.  The LFer is the big failure here.  He is almost in sole possession of the gaff allowing Ramirez to 3rd.

3.  The pitcher who can be seen walking around in no man's land in the middle infield.

4. Galvis, not for position but a bad rundown in which he throws the ball to early to first.



 I appreciate your clarification, but I still think that it’s obvious that Galvis should have covered second after his second throw. Nobody was covering second, and he was closest. He was watching the play develop and he was literally just standing there as if his particular job was done. Franco left third uncovered, I think he was trying to get to second, but he was obviously there way after the fact. However, once he left third Whoever was closest to the bag should’ve made a beeline for third. I think that was Severino, but I don’t know how fast he can run and all that gear, so maybe it was on the pitcher. Franco should not have left third, but he did, and once he did so many needed to cover for him.

Baseball, like life, is full of mistakes, good teams cover for each other.

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37 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

We have been playing a lot of weak arms in the OF, most notably DJ Stewart

How well do the metrics capture throws that miss the cutoff, or Tampa taking an extra 90 feet on any ball fielded by Stewart.

Not sure how advanced they are, but certainly the eye test says this team plays terrible "team" defense.

Well, on extra bases taken against our outfield, we can go this far:

In left field our hold rate is 62.9% compared to 61.5% league average.   Kill rate is 3.4% compared to 2.6% league average.  Hays has been significantly above average, Stewart average, Mountcastle slightly below average in this respect.   

In center, our hold rate is 34.5% compared to 44.8% league average.  Kill rate is 2.4% compared to 1.7% league average.   Almost all of that is Mullins.   

In right, hold rate is 50% compared to 47.1% league average.   Kill rate is 1.4% compared to 1.5% league average.  Believe it or not, Stewart leads the RF with a 59.1% hold rate.  Hays is also above average, while Santander has been below average.   

So, at least by these numbers, the corner OF spots have not been a problem when it comes to holding runners, and in particular, Stewart hasn’t been a problem.    Mullins, on the other hand, has a very weak arm and teams have taken advantage.   

So what is the scale of this whole issue anyway?   Basically we are +1 hold on 89 opportunities in LF, -9 holds on 84 opportunities in CF, and +2 holds on 74 opportunities in RF.

None of that takes into account how difficult an opportunity was, which can vary depending on both where the ball is hit and the size of the OF.   Those samples are pretty small so I wouldn’t make too much of them.  


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