ESPN: 1 player every team should trade or trade for

[waroriole]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There are a lot of teams named for Scherzer here but only the Mets for Means.  
 

Im still marketing Means to the Rays for Baz and Brujan.  If they do that, I’m dealing Means in a heartbeat.

Yeah I’d make that deal and I’m not interested in moving Means. 
 

I don’t think the Mets have a lot I’d want. Mauricio would be a given but not enough. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

So you think if Elias trades Mancini, Means or Santander he will be getting back players that will help the O's win in 2022?

That isn't happening with them either.

We could add Juan Soto and Jacob deGrom and we'd still finish no better than 3rd or 4th place in 2022.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

7 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

But in reality what are the odds you will get a player in return that is as good as Mullins? I don't think trading controllable star players is a route that the Os should be taking.  

I don't think Mullins is actually an MVP-caliber player over the long-term, thus my use of the term "sell high."

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't want to trade them, or Mullins, or Fry, I just think that there is a very real possibility that doing so provides us with the fastest and most effective path to sustainable competitiveness.

That competitiveness will happen fastest by trading these guys in in the fat chance category IMO.  The best that could happen is a cheaper and better chance to contend long term.  And that wastes years of Adley, Grayson and Hall window IMO.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

That isn't happening with them either.

We could add Juan Soto and Jacob deGrom and we'd still finish no better than 3rd or 4th place in 2022.

I disagree.   You are going to see a major improvement when Adley is added behind the plate and to the offense.   Grayson and DL will bring stuff that is near the top of the league.   Its up to Elias to put the right players around them.  That maybe a 2B/SS/3B and a closer but to not waster these guys years that is Elias needs to do.

[baltimoreO's22]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't think Mullins is actually an MVP-caliber player over the long-term, thus my use of the term "sell high."

I don't think he'll ever be an MVP level player, but even if he produces at the same level as Adam Jones, that would be a key piece for the Orioles rebuild. I would be tempted to offer him an Adam Jones esque extension and try to lock him up now. 

The Orioles should have an eye on 2023 as the first year of being competitive. 

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

I don't think Mullins is actually an MVP-caliber player over the long-term, thus my use of the term "sell high."

I think teams are generally way smarter than they were even five years ago. I don't see teams falling over themselves to trade for a guy who doesn't have a very long track record of success. My hunch is that a "sell high" return would be pretty underwhelming at the moment - and in that case, I'd rather bet on Mullins continuing to succeed and hopefully contributing to a winning team or being a more valuable trade chip later on.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I disagree.   You are going to see a major improvement when Adley is added behind the plate and to the offense.   Grayson and DL will bring stuff that is near the top of the league.   Its up to Elias to put the right players around them.  That maybe a 2B/SS/3B and a closer but to not waster these guys years that is Elias needs to do.

We’re not even a 54 win team now. How many wins do you think are added if we replace Severino, Harvey, and Kremer with Adley, Grayson, and Hall? 65? At best? How many IP would you expect from the rookie P?

Were not close to contending next year. The top line goal might be to get to .500 next year but 2023 will be the earliest chance at contention. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

And that wastes years of Adley, Grayson and Hall window IMO.

The first year or two of those guys will be wasted regardless because we do not currently have enough talent on-hand to build a winner around them.

Mancini is good but hardly irreplaceable and likely a poor long-term extension candidate as an almost 30 year old 1B/DH type of player with a history of cancer.

Mullins will come back down to Earth eventually when his .360+ BABIP corrects itself.

Means may not be the same guy we have seen so far in 2021 without whatever substance he has been using on his fingers.

Santander is already arb-eligible and seems to be made of porcelain.

If we can turn some or all of those pieces into multiple guys that could help us realistically compete in 2024 and beyond, that is probably the way to go, IMO.

Do I like it? No, of course not.

But reality doesn't much care about my opinion of it.

[waroriole]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The first year or two of those guys will be wasted regardless because we do not currently have enough talent on-hand to build a winner around them.

Mancini is good but hardly irreplaceable and likely a poor long-term extension candidate as an almost 30 year old 1B/DH type of player with a history of cancer.

Mullins will come back down to Earth eventually when his .360+ BABIP corrects itself.

Means may not be the same guy we have seen so far in 2021 without whatever substance he has been using on his fingers.

Santander is already arb-eligible and seems to be made of porcelain.

If we can turn some or all of those pieces into multiple guys that could help us realistically compete in 2024 and beyond, that is probably the way to go, IMO.

Do I like it? No, of course not.

But reality doesn't much care about my opinion of it.

This is the second time I’ve seen you mention it but I’ve heard nothing about Means using prohibited substances. Any reason you’re mentioning it?

[SteveA]

8 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The first year or two of those guys will be wasted regardless because we do not currently have enough talent on-hand to build a winner around them.

Mancini is good but hardly irreplaceable and likely a poor long-term extension candidate as an almost 30 year old 1B/DH type of player with a history of cancer.

Mullins will come back down to Earth eventually when his .360+ BABIP corrects itself.

Means may not be the same guy we have seen so far in 2021 without whatever substance he has been using on his fingers.

Santander is already arb-eligible and seems to be made of porcelain.

If we can turn some or all of those pieces into multiple guys that could help us realistically compete in 2024 and beyond, that is probably the way to go, IMO.

Do I like it? No, of course not.

But reality doesn't much care about my opinion of it.

All of those things are pretty darn obvious to opposing GMs too.   What makes you think they will give us much of value?

The Yankees are desperate for a LH bat,  yet I haven't heard a peep about them knocking down the door for Santander or Mullins.   I don't think any team in MLB is badly hurting at 1B to the point where they think Mancini is the Answer to help them over the top this year.   Unless Freddie Freeman steps in a pothole I think most opposing teams see Mancini as a nice piece to add to their lineup but not something they will give up the farm for.   With Means on the IL *and* with the crackdown on stickum, and with his relatively short track record of success, he will not come close to bringing what Erik Bedard was.

Yes, we could deal those guys and get some warm bodies back, some second tier prospects maybe.   But I don't think we could get difference makers that would really help our rebuild.   That doesn't mean that Elias should try and see what is out there, but I think the actual returns will be pretty disappointing.

[Sports Guy]

47 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you think if Elias trades Mancini, Means or Santander he will be getting back players that will help the O's win in 2022?

It’s possible.  It’s also possible that he doesn’t get players back in those trades but still replaces them in other ways.  You don’t have to get  an 825 OPS 30 HR DH.  You could get better defense and pitching and that makes up for the lost production. 
 

There are a lot of ways to build a contender.

I don’t think we trade Santander but I have no idea why you think he’s so tough to replace.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

12 minutes ago, waroriole said:

This is the second time I’ve seen you mention it but I’ve heard nothing about Means using prohibited substances. Any reason you’re mentioning it?

There are a bunch of videos from this year of him blatantly sticking his fingers into one particular spot on the inside of his glove and rubbing them together (while trying to disguise it as just stretching), and even one where he touches his jersey afterwards and the jersey noticeably clings to the tips of his fingers. I obviously don't know how much of his breakthrough this year is a direct result of his use of the "sticky stuff," but he is clearly one of the many, many guys using it.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, waroriole said:

We’re not even a 54 win team now. How many wins do you think are added if we replace Severino, Harvey, and Kremer with Adley, Grayson, and Hall? 65? At best? How many IP would you expect from the rookie P?

Were not close to contending next year. The top line goal might be to get to .500 next year but 2023 will be the earliest chance at contention. 

There is a lot more going on in Bowie than those three though they are the leaders.   Vavra 2B, Grenier SS and Dorrian 3B would be an upgrade over what the O's have now if they continue to improve in the 2nd half.   If not Elias needs to get FAs for whatever spot are needed.

When you talk about the current team you are talking about below replacement players in Franco, Wilkerson/Valaika,  and Severino/Wynns.

[Just Regular]

I do see Milwaukee Mancini as a decent fit as they have been using AAAA Vogelbach as a near regular, and just like the 2019 Nationals have five pitchers to scare the Dodgers in a short series.

When we calibrate where at 55 / 64 / 73 / 82 the upside of next year's team might be, are we factoring in Matt Harvey pitching at a FAR below replacement level.    As bad as the bottom half of the MLB roster has been, I still feel like on aggregate the 20 best Orioles are playing well, and could be the foundation of a reasonably competitive 2022 team.

Rutschman even if it is measured for <129.5 I think will give a jolt perhaps similar to Buck just throwing up his hands and going into the dugout in August 2010.   Granted there the 2011 team was also very bad, but I think the cream of the current farm a more substantial infusion whenever it happens.

Continue to hope for holding Mancini as he is one of those 20 best Orioles where a decent 2022 squad needs a big majority of them, but also feel no urge to buy his 2023 anytime soon.