ESPN: 1 player every team should trade or trade for

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Elias understands the revenue profile of the Orioles as a mid market team.   They don't have the revenue base of the Astros or the Cards. That is why he decided on a rebuild instead of buying expensive FAs like the Astros, Boston and the Yankees  have done.    He just doesn't have to revenue to compete in that manner.  That is why he leans more toward the Tampa model though he may be able to have a higher payroll than Tampa overall.

Means and Adley will be at or close to 30 when they are eligible for free agency.  I think long term extension are unlikely for them from the O's.   If there are exceptions it might be Grayson and DL though the risk of signing pitchers long term may prevent Elias from going that direction IMO.

 

He absolutely has the ability to spend with Houston.  As I pointed out in the other thread, only this years Astros team has a higher payroll than the 2017 Os team.  And the 2016 and 2018 teams are right there with how Houston has spent. 

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He absolutely has the ability to spend with Houston.  As I pointed out in the other thread, only this years Astros team has a higher payroll than the 2017 Os team.  And the 2016 and 2018 teams are right there with how Houston has spent. 

What data are you looking at?   Here’s what I’m seeing:

Astros

2017 $158 mm

2018 $173 mm

2019 $166 mm

2020 $218 mm (scheduled if they played a full season 

2021 $191 mm

Orioles

2014 $109 mm

2015 $113 mm

2016 $154 mm

2017 $161 mm

2018 $142 mm

That’s $906 mm over 5 years for the Astros, $675 mm for the O’s.

I think we should just compare ourselves to ourselves.   We know that under the right conditions our team can spend $161 mm in a year.   That doesn’t mean they can do that every year, and it doesn’t mean they can do it right away given the lackluster attendance, impact of the pandemic and MASN financial issues.   I think we know that the O’s won’t (and I would say, shouldn’t) spend that much until they are contenders   I do think payroll should begin to ramp up next year, but I expect it to take 2 or 3 years to go over $100 mm.   It will be nice when the Davis contract ends after next season and we can start putting that $23 mm/yr to productive use instead of throwing it down a rathole.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What data are you looking at?   Here’s what I’m seeing:

Astros

2017 $158 mm

2018 $173 mm

2019 $166 mm

2020 $218 mm (scheduled if they played a full season 

2021 $191 mm

Orioles

2014 $109 mm

2015 $113 mm

2016 $154 mm

2017 $161 mm

2018 $142 mm

That’s $906 mm over 5 years for the Astros, $675 mm for the O’s.

I think we should just compare ourselves to ourselves.   We know that under the right conditions our team can spend $161 mm in a year.   That doesn’t mean they can do that every year, and it doesn’t mean they can do it right away given the lackluster attendance, impact of the pandemic and MASN financial issues.   I think we know that the O’s won’t (and I would say, shouldn’t) spend that much until they are contenders   I do think payroll should begin to ramp up next year, but I expect it to take 2 or 3 years to go over $100 mm.   It will be nice when the Davis contract ends after next season and we can start putting that $23 mm/yr to productive use instead of throwing it down a rathole.

 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/
 

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/baltimore-orioles/

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What data are you looking at?   Here’s what I’m seeing:

Astros

2017 $158 mm

2018 $173 mm

2019 $166 mm

2020 $218 mm (scheduled if they played a full season 

2021 $191 mm

Orioles

2014 $109 mm

2015 $113 mm

2016 $154 mm

2017 $161 mm

2018 $142 mm

That’s $906 mm over 5 years for the Astros, $675 mm for the O’s.

I think we should just compare ourselves to ourselves.   We know that under the right conditions our team can spend $161 mm in a year.   That doesn’t mean they can do that every year, and it doesn’t mean they can do it right away given the lackluster attendance, impact of the pandemic and MASN financial issues.   I think we know that the O’s won’t (and I would say, shouldn’t) spend that much until they are contenders   I do think payroll should begin to ramp up next year, but I expect it to take 2 or 3 years to go over $100 mm.   It will be nice when the Davis contract ends after next season and we can start putting that $23 mm/yr to productive use instead of throwing it down a rathole.

 

But they wouldn’t do it every year.  There will be spikes because of arbitration raises.  That’s why the money got high back then.

If you trade off guys, let them walk, etc..you keep getting cheaper guys in.

I would expect the payroll to be in the 120-175 range when they are winning.  

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But they wouldn’t do it every year.  There will be spikes because of arbitration raises.  That’s why the money got high back then.

If you trade off guys, let them walk, etc..you keep getting cheaper guys in.

I would expect the payroll to be in the 120-175 range when they are winning.  

I agree with your estimate.   

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Good post but let me argue with you about one point.

When you say the O's are unlikely to sign even their stars to contracts of 4-5 years or longer, that makes sense. We talk so much about the Rays on this board. That's their model and they execute it very, very well. But I think we need to remember that that's not the background Elias came through. The Cards have changed their operations significantly since Elias was there but when he was, they did lock up guys. The Astros have tried to keep the majority of their core. And notwithstanding the doubts of many about whether the brothers will spend money, the O's will clearly have money available if they choose to lock guys up.

I would guess the O's eventually wind up some kind of hybrid of all of those. The "pipeline of talent" is something we have heard enough that I think Elias will always churn the roster, and deal most before any kind of long term contract. But I think there may be exceptions. Probably not many. 

But remember, when you're trading a talent, Means as an example, the return should help quickly. When the Rays traded Blake Snell to the Padres, they got 4 players back headlined by Luis Patina who has and will pitch at the MLB level this year. Of the other 3, one was Cole Wilcox who was a third round pick but mocked as a first rounder for a while. 

To this point, Elias hasn't traded a high value guy. You're just not going to get a big return for Bundy, Iglesias, Cobb, etc. But when those trades become Mullins or Means, it's reasonable to expect a whole lot more coming back, and more major league ready guys as well.

Just my thoughts.

Rays have had a history of extending some players.  It was probably done with the thought of increasing their trade value some.  Archer, Snell, Kiermaier, and Longoria are some of the players they have extended.  If the most financially strapped MLB organization can sign players to extensions, so can the Orioles.  The Orioles might not be signing players to stay with the Orioles, but to increase their trade values.  What the Orioles can't do is take All-Star players to their free agent walk year and expect a discount on signing them.  This leads to debacles like Mussina and Chris Davis. 

[7Mo]

14 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Rays have had a history of extending some players.  It was probably done with the thought of increasing their trade value some.  Archer, Snell, Kiermaier, and Longoria are some of the players they have extended.  If the most financially strapped MLB organization can sign players to extensions, so can the Orioles.  The Orioles might not be signing players to stay with the Orioles, but to increase their trade values.  What the Orioles can't do is take All-Star players to their free agent walk year and expect a discount on signing them.  This leads to debacles like Mussina and Chris Davis. 

Agree as to all of that. Good post.

I'm shocked they were able to deal Longoria though.