Passan: Mullins, Mancini central to Orioles plans - will need overpay to pry

[Sports Guy]

And btw, no matter what defensive stats we are showing, its still all a relatively small sample size and with defensive stats, you can really only take them with a grain of salt when the sample size isn't that big.  Trey wasn't the everyday first baseman in 2019 because Davis was still getting at bats and playing there and this year, the team wants Mountcastle to get time over there for obvious reasons.  

[GuidoSarducci]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

I can't see the O's putting themselves in a position that they would almost have to offer Mancini arbitration.  That - as much as anything - is why I think he'll be traded before the deadline.   

Nah, if they are cheap and push comes to shove can just do the same thing they did with Villar.  But that would be a minor PR fallout

Edited June 30, 2021 by GuidoSarducci

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

UZR has him at .2 so yeah that's not below average, but he has a negative grade in the  dWAR, DRS, rPM and his RZR indicates hes between poor and awful so maybe not by all metrics is he below average but he is below average in a majority of them. 

Well, basically all those stats are from baseball info solutions, which is what BBR bases their dWAR off of.  So, essentially you have one site saying he is slightly below average and 2 sites saying he is average or slightly above average.

Again, that basically tells me he is average and not hurting anyone over at first.  My eyes tell me the same thing.

Put this another way...the return for Mancini isn't going to be less because of his defense and teams will be fine putting him over at first during a playoff run.

[baltimoreO's22]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

And btw, no matter what defensive stats we are showing, its still all a relatively small sample size and with defensive stats, you can really only take them with a grain of salt when the sample size isn't that big.  Trey wasn't the everyday first baseman in 2019 because Davis was still getting at bats and playing there and this year, the team wants Mountcastle to get time over there for obvious reasons.  

He needs the work, Mountcastle is the future, but he needs a lot of work at 1B. 

[Redskins Rick]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2021&endYear=2021&split=no&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=show

 

Baseball savant has him basically at average.  Not hurting you type thing.  UZR/UZR150 has him average to above average.

 

The stats you provided say is worth 2 or 3 runs less than the average first baseman.  10 runs is 1 win.  So, when you take all of the data, you basically get an average first baseman.  A guy who isn't hurting your team with the glove.  Personally, my eye test says the same thing.  I don't think he is anything special over there but I don't think he is hurting you either and any team looking for a first baseman would certainly be fine with him over there.  Hell, I think teams would be ok giving him time in the OF and he is worse out there.

And if making your arguments look poor means I'm troll, so be it.  Stop posting dis-information, interpreting it incorrectly and presenting it as fact and maybe I wouldn't "troll" you.

Stop posting misinformation, geeze. Hello, what the hell are you doing, when you type crap that nobody else buys either.

So take all the data you want, but when you look at all the metrics, and not cherry picking your facts, it does not  point to an average first baseman.

Great guy, great clubhouse guy, great teammate, above average bat.

No disagreement.

I think the right team, in the right situation with a need, would come kicking his tires, but will they give up anything, that remains to be seen.

 

 

[baltimoreO's22]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, basically all those stats are from baseball info solutions, which is what BBR bases their dWAR off of.  So, essentially you have one site saying he is slightly below average and 2 sites saying he is average or slightly above average.

Again, that basically tells me he is average and not hurting anyone over at first.

Fair enough, I don't think he's going to kill you if you stick him at first. More to my point is Milwaukee to me seams like the only NL team that could be a trade partner. I don't see many teams with a glaring need at 1B. If he's traded to the AL he can at least be in the same role he's in here, splitting time at 1B and DH.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Stop posting misinformation, geeze. Hello, what the hell are you doing, when you type crap that nobody else buys either.

So take all the data you want, but when you look at all the metrics, and not cherry picking your facts, it does not  point to an average first baseman.

Great guy, great clubhouse guy, great teammate, above average bat.

No disagreement.

I think the right team, in the right situation with a need, would come kicking his tires, but will they give up anything, that remains to be seen.

 

 

Except they do, at least some of them.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltimoreO's22 said:

Fair enough, I don't think he's going to kill you if you stick him at first. More to my point is Milwaukee to me seams like the only NL team that could be a trade partner. I don't see many teams with a glaring need at 1B. If he's traded to the AL he can at least be in the same role he's in here, splitting time at 1B and DH.

I would agree with that.  I think no matter how you look at it, even if you think he's a GG first baseman, the market is limited because many contenders have a first baseman.

I would also think you would prefer not to put him in the OF but again, there are contenders and have been contenders/playoff teams with worse defensive OFers than Trey is.

So yes, first and DH are the preferred areas and there is just a limited market there.

But limited doesn't mean "bad" either. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Yes he is by any advanced metrics you look at. He's not a horrible defender, but he is for sure below average. 

I went and checked, at baseball savant. He is listed there is a horrible right fielder with -7 out above average which is miraculously bad. But at first base, he is +1 out above average, So he is at least average at first base. Given the position, that’s a low bar, but the fact is he’s not terrible at first base.

[ArtVanDelay]

1 hour ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

UZR has him at .2 so yeah that's not below average, but he has a negative grade in the  dWAR, DRS, rPM and his RZR indicates hes between poor and awful so maybe not by all metrics is he below average but he is below average in a majority of them. 

All first basemen have a negative dWAR unless they’re spectacular defenders. 

[TommyPickles]

2 hours ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

If he isn't traded, I would offer him a 3 year extension in the 12-13M AAV range, and hope to have him be a team leader during the "competitive years." 

This is what I'm thinking too. If they get a great offer, take it. If not, give him the JJ Hardy deal (3 years, 39-40 million or so) and plug him in as team captain and a middle of the order bat for the playoff years.

I know a lot of people here want him traded, but I think that would be a good extension. It wouldn't break the bank, you wouldn't be paying him past age 33, he's a fan favorite, and, like Hardy, he would offer a lot of intangible benefits as a mentor to the younger guys.

 

[Just Regular]

From here, would you guess Trey Mancini over or under Age-33 Nelson Cruz's 1-year, $8M for his initial FA year in 2023?

Age 29-32, Nelson 146, 113, 104 and 124 OPS+ with about 25 HR, 85 RBI every year.   He stole 17 bases one of those years.

Age 26-30 will be Trey's four year run-up with the missed 2020 (also puts only full seasons in his comp).

His last 2.5 years OPS+: 95, 136, 116

He is a good hitter and a productive Oriole.   I believe 1-year, $8M will probably be sufficient to retain him for 2023 should both parties want that then.   If the early Adley 2023 Orioles are straitjacketed to like a $60M payroll, I doubt ~20% for Age-31 Mancini will scream optimal use of precious dollars.

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, ArtVanDelay said:

All first basemen have a negative dWAR unless they’re spectacular defenders. 

Yes.   To elaborate dWAR is the sum of Rfield (also called Rdrs) plus Rpos, then divided by a factor of runs/win that is generally right around 10.   So for example, take Paul Goldschmidt 2019.  

Rfield = 0 (so he was an average 1B)

Rpos = -8 (showing 1B is an easy position)

dWAR = -1.0 (negative defensive value because he did an average job of playing an easy defensive position)

[Sports Guy]

Thank you for that Frobby and Art.  Had totally forgotten about the defensive values there.

So, @Redskins Rick, what other “facts” do you have that he is below average at first?

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

From here, would you guess Trey Mancini over or under Age-33 Nelson Cruz's 1-year, $8M for his initial FA year in 2023?

Age 29-32, Nelson 146, 113, 104 and 124 OPS+ with about 25 HR, 85 RBI every year.   He stole 17 bases one of those years.

Age 26-30 will be Trey's four year run-up with the missed 2020 (also puts only full seasons in his comp).

His last 2.5 years OPS+: 95, 136, 116

He is a good hitter and a productive Oriole.   I believe 1-year, $8M will probably be sufficient to retain him for 2023 should both parties want that then.   If the early Adley 2023 Orioles are straitjacketed to like a $60M payroll, I doubt ~20% for Age-31 Mancini will scream optimal use of precious dollars.

 

 

He would have to have a subpar 2022 to only get 1/8.