Predict the Pick!!!! Your prediction with #5 overall pick here:

[joelala]

14 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Not that I have seen.  Just wishful thinking.  Include Ford there too.  Would just be a nice option to have if we got that lucky.  It won’t happen though, especially those guys.

Yea I’m still hoping that if we don’t take Lawler or Watson, Ford is the pick at 5 because I can almost guarantee he won’t be there at our second pick. He looks extremely legit and with a plus arm and plus speed, and the bat speed and torque he generates, looks like he could be 5-tool player at 2B or an OF spot assuming the team who bets him moves him off of catcher. 

[osravensfan78]

I’m going to guess Davis or Watson in that order. I think Lawlar will be in the board and we will pass. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

If signability is an issue, and he wouldn't sign for lets say 5M which means he falls to 10 or outside top 10, then what makes you think we could sign him if he fell to 41? Where would the O's get 3.5M+ to make up the difference in value? 

Call me skeptical that he turns down 3ishM and goes to college.

[baltimoreO's22]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Call me skeptical that he turns down 3ishM and goes to college.

Well then he isn't falling to 41, the two are mutually exclusive IMO. If he falls to 41, then he is turning down 3M, and if he isn't turning down 3M, then why wouldn't the Yankees take him at 20, or any other team with at least that much slot value? 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Well then he isn't falling to 41, the two are mutually exclusive IMO. If he falls to 41, then he is turning down 3M, and if he isn't turning down 3M, then why wouldn't the Yankees take him at 20, or any other team with at least that much slot value? 

Things change.  He could want/ask for one thing but when 3M is staring at you and the choice is take that and start your pro career or go study for 3 years, I think he could take it.  Players fall all the time due to signability reasons and a lot of them get signed anyway and sign for less than they were demanding too begin with.

[baltimoreO's22]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Things change.  He could want/ask for one thing but when 3M is staring at you and the choice is take that and start your pro career or go study for 3 years, I think he could take it.  Players fall all the time due to signability reasons and a lot of them get signed anyway and sign for less than they were demanding too begin with.

Since they implemented the slot values/pool, what consensus top 10 guy fell to the second round and signed? 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

Since they implemented the slot values/pool, what consensus top 10 guy fell to the second round and signed? 

Matthew Allan was a guy who was supposed to go top 15ish and fell to the late 3rd round.  He reportedly wanted 4+M to sign and took 2.5M.  Thats one off of the top of my head.  He is currently a top 60 prospect on mlb.com.

[LookinUp]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Matthew Allan was a guy who was supposed to go top 15ish and fell to the late 3rd round.  He reportedly wanted 4+M to sign and took 2.5M.  Thats one off of the top of my head.  He is currently a top 60 prospect on mlb.com.

I know we're talking in hypotheticals, but it's harder to make that money work the larger the number is. If a guy is looking for top 10-15 money, that's way different than top 4-6 money.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

I know we're talking in hypotheticals, but it's harder to make that money work the larger the number is. If a guy is looking for top 10-15 money, that's way different than top 4-6 money.

Well, I'm not sure Jobe is going to demand top 5 money.  He is probably looking at 4-5M.  If he were to drop (and again, I don't think this scenario is realistic) to the 41st pick and the Os offered him 3M, I find it hard to believe that he goes to college.  He may and if so, so be it.  I would take the risk.

[LookinUp]

My guess is players play it two ways. One is to find genuinely interested teams and come to a range. The other is to then demand higher money in hopes that someone likes them that much.

For Matt Allan, he probably had some kind of deal in place and tried to over leverage his value in hopes of hitting the jackpot. Just my guess. The alternative that he blindly asked for way too much, even behind the scenes, and then had to cave to whatever was being offered later seems like poor management. In that latter scenario, you have to hope that some team is just saving slot money without a specific plan on how they'll use it.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

My guess is players play it two ways. One is to find genuinely interested teams and come to a range. The other is to then demand higher money in hopes that someone likes them that much.

For Matt Allan, he probably had some kind of deal in place and tried to over leverage his value in hopes of hitting the jackpot. Just my guess. The alternative that he blindly asked for way too much, even behind the scenes, and then had to cave to whatever was being offered later seems like poor management. In that latter scenario, you have to hope that some team is just saving slot money without a specific plan on how they'll use it.

Poor advice given to 18 year olds from agents?  No way, that never happens!  

[baltimoreO's22]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Matthew Allan was a guy who was supposed to go top 15ish and fell to the late 3rd round.  He reportedly wanted 4+M to sign and took 2.5M.  Thats one off of the top of my head.  He is currently a top 60 prospect on mlb.com.

It's a pretty decent example, but I'm not sure Allan is viewed as the same type of prospect as Jobe. Jobe is consensus top 10 and overall grades out around a 60, whereas Allan never cracked any top 10 lists, to my knowledge, and is viewed as a 50 prospect. 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

It's a pretty decent example, but I'm not sure Allan is viewed as the same type of prospect as Jobe. Jobe is consensus top 10 and overall grades out around a 60, whereas Allan never cracked any top 10 lists, to my knowledge, and is viewed as a 50 prospect. 

I think you are reaching a little bit here.  Jobe is in the 8 area and Allan was around 13th.  No much of a difference.

We are also talking about Jobe signing for more money and being drafted 50 spots higher, so the small difference in draft ranking is made up there.

[baltimoreO's22]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are reaching a little bit here.  Jobe is in the 8 area and Allan was around 13th.  No much of a difference.

We are also talking about Jobe signing for more money and being drafted 50 spots higher, so the small difference in draft ranking is made up there.

 

The highest Allan was ranked was 13th, and as low as 20th. The lowest I've seen Jobe is 8th, some have him as high as 5th. Obviously teams didn't deem Allan worth 4M, I would imagine Jobe signs for significant amount more than Allan, which is a good tell on how teams view you as a draft prospect. 

Edited July 8, 2021 by baltimoreO's22

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

 

The highest Allan was ranked was 13th, and as low as 20th. The lowest I've seen Jobe is 8th, some have him as high as 5th. Obviously teams didn't deem Allan worth 4M, I would imagine Jobe signs for significant amount more than Allan, which is a good tell on how teams view you as a draft prospect. 

Ok, I get that but that's not the discussion.  The discussion is about whether or not we get lucky enough for him to fall to 41 and if he does, what does he sign for.

In the very unlikely occurrence that he falls that far, if he signs, I will bet its for less than 4M.  I also bet that he doesn't turn down the money, which will be a lot less than he hoped for, and go to college.

None of this matters because he's not falling that far.