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Predict the Pick!!!! Your prediction with #5 overall pick here:


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2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ok, I get that but that's not the discussion.  The discussion is about whether or not we get lucky enough for him to fall to 41 and if he does, what does he sign for.

In the very unlikely occurrence that he falls that far, if he signs, I will bet its for less than 4M.  I also bet that he doesn't turn down the money, which will be a lot less than he hoped for, and go to college.

None of this matters because he's not falling that far.

Yeah he's not falling, but if he does I don't think he signs. I would expect him to take the Brady Aiken route and join the 2022 draft. 

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6 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

I predict the O's will take Cowser.  I hope I'm wrong.  Cowser is a good prospect but the O's need pitching and a shortstop, and plenty of good ones will be available at pick 5.

You don’t draft for need especially when you are talking about HS players.

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One thing to remember is that the college guys are safer picks…but the HS guys almost always have the higher ceiling.  
 

Not sure if any site tracks it but I would bet in the era of the common draft, most HOFers were either international free agents or drafted out of HS.  I may be wrong about that and it’s just a perception I have, especially for the 33 years I have been watching the sport, but the great players nowadays almost always seem to come from HS or Intl FA, for the most part.

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I think Mayer and Leiter are gone before the O's pick.   I think the prospects the O's want in their system are ranked by them like this:

1) Lawlar - Mayer and Lawlar are very close as the best SS in the draft.   The O's will pay full slot for Lawlar and he will sign for 6M instead over going to Vandy.   Lawlar and Elias have agreed on that if he falls to #5.

2)  Davis - Best Hitter in the draft.   They would take him if Lawler is gone.  He will sign for slot.

3)  Watson - I think Watson will go underslot.  Elias probably see him as the best prospect they can get underslot.   Elias and Watson have agreed on contract price if he is selected by the O's.

House -  Probably a 3B by the time he is in the majors.   O's would rather have a SS. 

Rocker  - Good but I don't think the O's rank him in their top three.

Jobe - High School pitcher too risky at #5.

JMO

 

 

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think Mayer and Leiter are gone before the O's pick.   I think the prospects the O's want in their system are ranked by them like this:

1) Lawlar - Mayer and Lawlar are very close as the best SS in the draft.   The O's will pay full slot for Lawlar and he will sign for 6M instead over going to Vandy.   Lawlar and Elias have agreed on that if he falls to #5.

2)  Davis - Best Hitter in the draft.   They would take him if Lawler is gone.  He will sign for slot.

3)  Watson - I think Watson will go underslot.  Elias probably see him as the best prospect they can get underslot.   Elias and Watson have agreed on contract price if he is selected by the O's.

House -  Probably a 3B by the time he is in the majors.   O's would rather have a SS. 

Rocker  - Good but I don't think the O's rank him in their top three.

Jobe - High School pitcher too risky at #5.

JMO

 

 

If it works out like this and we can get Lawlar to sign a respectable contract, I would be ecstatic. I’ve seen a lot of drafts lately with Lawlar falling past us to Arizona. If we were to pull the trigger on Lawlar, you can argue we got the best player in the draft at 5. 

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1 minute ago, osravensfan78 said:

If it works out like this and we can get Lawlar to sign a respectable contract, I would be ecstatic. I’ve seen a lot of drafts lately with Lawlar falling past us to Arizona. If we were to pull the trigger on Lawlar, you can argue we got the best player in the draft at 5. 

Yep…I think if we draft him, we can get him signed somewhere between slot and 7M.

That leaves plenty of money to go big with your next pick or 2.

In a draft that’s not deep, blow your wad early. 
 

I am content with that and drafting a bunch of high upside college relievers.  I don’t think they normally sign for above slot.  They can move fast too.  

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1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think Mayer and Leiter are gone before the O's pick.   I think the prospects the O's want in their system are ranked by them like this:

1) Lawlar - Mayer and Lawlar are very close as the best SS in the draft.   The O's will pay full slot for Lawlar and he will sign for 6M instead over going to Vandy.   Lawlar and Elias have agreed on that if he falls to #5.

2)  Davis - Best Hitter in the draft.   They would take him if Lawler is gone.  He will sign for slot.

3)  Watson - I think Watson will go underslot.  Elias probably see him as the best prospect they can get underslot.   Elias and Watson have agreed on contract price if he is selected by the O's.

House -  Probably a 3B by the time he is in the majors.   O's would rather have a SS. 

Rocker  - Good but I don't think the O's rank him in their top three.

Jobe - High School pitcher too risky at #5.

JMO

 

 

Are these your opinions or facts?

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4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

One thing to remember is that the college guys are safer picks…but the HS guys almost always have the higher ceiling.  
 

Not sure if any site tracks it but I would bet in the era of the common draft, most HOFers were either international free agents or drafted out of HS.  I may be wrong about that and it’s just a perception I have, especially for the 33 years I have been watching the sport, but the great players nowadays almost always seem to come from HS or Intl FA, for the most part.

I went back though the last 10 Hall of Fame classes, which includes 30 people inducted as players.   14 were drafted from high school, 10 from college, 6 were foreign amateur signings.   

High school: Jeter, Simmons, Walker, Baines, Halladay, L. Smith, C. Jones, Trammell, Raines, Griffey, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Blyleven

College: Mussina, Hoffman, Morris, Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, R. Johnson, Thomas, Larkin

Foreign: E. Martinez, Rivera, Guerrero, I. Rodriguez, P. Martinez, Alomar.   
 

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2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I went back though the last 10 Hall of Fame classes, which includes 30 people inducted as players.   14 were drafted from high school, 10 from college, 6 were foreign amateur signings.   

High school: Jeter, Simmons, Walker, Baines, Halladay, L. Smith, C. Jones, Trammell, Raines, Griffey, Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Blyleven

College: Mussina, Hoffman, Morris, Thome, Bagwell, Piazza, Biggio, R. Johnson, Thomas, Larkin

Foreign: E. Martinez, Rivera, Guerrero, I. Rodriguez, P. Martinez, Alomar.   
 

Of course Clemens and Bonds should be on this list and they were college guys.  Raffy too.

 

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2 hours ago, panick said:

Are these your opinions or facts?

Opinion.  But I think that Elias knows how to determine if a draftee will sign with the O's or go back to school.   He is definitely talking to the draftee's agent.  That is what the agent is there for.

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