2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, DirtyBird said:

You wanted the falling stock over the rising stock?

I wanted pitching because we have 1 good SP on the MLB roster (Means), 2 good SP prospects in our system (Hall and G-Rod), and then a bunch of middling SP prospects that are more likely to turn out to be busts than not (Smith, Bradish, etc.).

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

I would assume you have had discussions with representatives for each overshot target and have a good idea of what it would take to sign them before you implement this approach. The only unknown variable should be who is still available. 

By “you,” I assume you mean Elias, not me.    If so, then I agree, but I still think there’s some wiggle room in what the players’ representatives say before draft day.   

[waroriole]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

By “you,” I assume you mean Elias, not me.    If so, then I agree, but I still think there’s some wiggle room in what the players’ representatives say before draft day.   

I do mean Elias. I would expect you to share the inside info had with the representatives. 
 

There’s probably some wiggle room in the numbers. I don’t expect anyone to give a concrete number. But, I would think the stability of the number you receive is part of the equation in determining a player’s willingness to sign. 

[interloper]

Great pick! Sure fire player. High OBP, high average, blossoming power, good defensive skills. What's not to like? 

 

Bye!

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, sevastras said:

I mean in 2009 the Os picked the 25th ranked player at number 5

You just HAD to bring that up...

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30962284/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-10-there-no-1-prospect-ahead-vanderbilt-two-aces
 

From Feb of this year.

 

Kylie McDaniel had Lawlar #1.  Cowser was #36.  

I'm actually kind of impressed the pre-power breakout junior year Cowser was as high as #36, presumably then on the basis of not much more than pure hit tool.   All the 18 and 21 year old draftees have had their entire amateur seasons between now and then; Cedric Mullins probably wasn't even the 36th ranked CF in February.

[deward]

37 minutes ago, foxfield said:

This is a good post.  I think the easy criticism of the pick is that Lawler or Rocker would have had sizzle.  Of course that means nothing to results.  Cowser doesn't excite and he is an example of the analysis the Orioles have employed.

I said I would accept any pick in the realm of conventional wisdom.  Cowser is among the least exciting of those names but he was there.  The mocks in general were not good.  Davis #1 is a small but not huge surprise.  Lawler especially will be watched here as the idea of an all star ss is difficult to have an opportunity for and not get.   But the idea that Elias still took Cowser means one of a couple of things:

1).  He thinks Cowser in the long run will be the more successful player.  

2).  He decided Lawler was too big a risk.

3).  He decided that the Orioles system is still not populated with enough talent to to trade the risk of hitting on the pick for the allure of high ceiling.

All of us can agree or disagree on good pick or bad.  You and Tony have pushed back a great deal here because people are making judgements when the simple fact is that it will be years before we know.

It is hard for me to think that $ alone drives this but there are obviously many that do. I will only say every time I read Austin Martin, I feel better about what Elias is doing, even though it is still too early to have any defense of what he ultimately chose.  It's a crap shoot.  Trout went 25.  Elite talent is there.  

The post above I think very well captures why the lack of excitement on Cowser exists.  The Orioles have gone to lengths to underperform at the MLB level and get well placed positions in the draft.  We see that and say it's to get guys like Lawler and that makes perfect sense.  

But Cowser is not out of the blue and he is not some unheralded player.  The first round was littered with folks that did not show up in the Mocks.   The point is, that the people who we look at as knowing the most, don't know all that much at all.  They still don't have near the access to the teams as they think and the GM's are looking at still more information.  The important thing to remember is that all of those folks...the GM's, those doing the mocking...they all have more info than we do.

We wanted sizzle.  We got steak.  Time will tell if it was worth the suck.  And saying patience or trust the process doesn't make anyone feel better about sliding into the break on a 51 win pace or whatever.  But that is where the Orioles are...and for what it's worth....I am hanging on for the ride!

I think you have to consider one more possibility - Lawler didn't want to be here. There was plenty of buzz that he would be comfortable going on to Vandy and shooting for 1-1 in 2023 if he was unhappy with yesterday's outcome.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

You just HAD to bring that up...

I like Flanny, but he wasnt that good of a GM.

 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

I like Flanny, but he wasnt that good of a GM.

 

Likewise.

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30962284/kiley-mcdaniel-2021-mlb-draft-rankings-10-there-no-1-prospect-ahead-vanderbilt-two-aces
 

From Feb of this year.

 

Kylie McDaniel had Lawlar #1.  Cowser was #36.  

I was very disappointed Lawler wasn't the pick at 5.  I was surprised he got by the Tigers, and when I saw that either he or Mayer would be available at five, I was really hopeful the O's would take one of them. 

[Orioles0615]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Great pick! Sure fire player. High OBP, high average, blossoming power, good defensive skills. What's not to like? 

 

Bye!

Wasn’t the same thing said about DJ Stewart ?

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Yardball85 said:

I was very disappointed Lawler wasn't the pick at 5.  I was surprised he got by the Tigers, and when I saw that either he or Mayer would be available at five, I was really hopeful the O's would take one of them. 

Lawler was projected by several to be a top 5 pick. Either they missed it, or a bunch of others missed read the draft.

 

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, Redskins Rick said:

Lawler was projected by several to be a top 5 pick. Either they missed it, or a bunch of others missed read the draft.

 

Right... I want to take ME at his word that Cowser was their guy no matter what - but I can't, when everyone and their mother had Lawlar and others ahead of him. 

[DrinkinWithFermi]

8 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's not to like? 

Tanking the team into the ground just to select higher floor, lower ceiling guys with the resulting top 5 draft picks 2 years in a row?

[Redskins Rick]

7 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Right... I want to take ME at his word that Cowser was their guy no matter what - but I can't, when everyone and their mother had Lawlar and others ahead of him. 

The Birds did bring Cowser in to kick his wheels, so he was on their short list.