2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[BohKnowsBmore]

10 minutes ago, sevastras said:

Why does everyone always say Correa was an under slot guy?  He was highly regarded and happen to be available for under slot money but he wasnt truly an under slot guy.

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/13173-keith-law-thinks-os-should-draft-correa/

 

 

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because they want to play into a bogus narrative.

What does this mean that he "wasn't truly an underslot guy?"

His slot was $7.2M, he signed for $4.8M. That's significantly "underslot." Ignoring the health issues for a moment (which are irrelevant to the initial draft strategy), I guy like Kjerstad would still be a "truly underslot" guy even if he ended up being one of the best players from his draft. That actually part of the logic for going underslot, if you think a Correa may still be among the best players in the draft and is available for less, then you have a great player AND money to deploy elsewhere in the draft. In the Astros case, that was signing Lance McCullers:

https://climbingtalshill.com/2012/06/17/astros-sign-supplemental-pick-lance-mccullers/

Quote

 

As had been rumored all day, the Astros have indeed signed supplemental first round pick, Lance McCullers Jr. McCullers was drafted 41st overall in this years MLB Draft. He fell in the draft due to signability concerns, the fact that he is represented by mega agent Scott Boras, and had a firm commitment to play baseball for the University of Florida. McCullers tweeted earlier today that he was about to board a four hour flight but didn’t reveal the destination. It was later leaked by Zachary Levine of the Houston Chronicle, that McCullers was indeed en route to Houston to take a physical and sign his contract.

Being the 41st overall selection and due to the new CBA in regards to the draft, his slotted amount at that pick was $1,258,700. McCullers signed for double that at $2.5 mil, which is equal to being the 12th or 13th overall selection in the draft. His over the slot bonus of almost $1.4 mil is the largest over slotted bonus thus far in this year’s draft eclipsing the bonus given to Cardinals second round pick, Carson Kelly. McCullers’ father was also a big league pitcher for the Phillies and was also drafted with the 41st overall selection. McCullers Jr. had one of, if not the most, electric arms in the 2012 draft. His fastball consistently sits between 94-96 and hits 100 every so often. He also has a plus slider that hits the mid 80’s. He will be a welcome addition to a farm team in desperate need of legit pitching prospects. I would rank him in the top five of Astros prospects behind Carlos Correa, Jonathan Singleton, George Springer and Jarred Cosart, in that order.

Due to signing top overall pick, Carlos Correa, to an under the slot contract of $4.8 million (saving over $2 mil in the process), the Astros still remain $1,296,400 under their bonus cap for their signings so far. This is excellent news for the possible signings of fourth round selection, Rio Ruiz, a high school 3B and 11th round selection, Hunter Virant, a LHP. I was hopeful we could at least get one of the aforementioned players, but now I believe both will be signed. Also, don’t forget that we still have a few college players that have not yet signed due to their play in the College World Series. We could be saving money there as well to put toward the signings of Ruiz and Virant.

 

 

[Redskins Rick]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, 2 teams took a pitcher, so maybe they valued a pitcher over a position player (the Os are the opposite).  The Pirates took a college guy who maybe they feel moves fast and they valued that.  And the Red Sox took the one position player who some had rated over Lawlar.  
 

Doss the fact that 24 teams passed on Trout invalidate his career?

Just like Brady went last round.

Some guys have the mental fortitude and skillset not seen by the scouts, until they develop.

I get the Pirates, in fact, saw MASN the other night, and they claimed the Birds were looking at that catcher they picked.

Good point about 2 of the teams picking pitchers,

I think Im going to sit back and see how this kid plays out, because I declare this pick, a wasted pick, a money saving move, or maybe even pure genius.

 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Just like Brady went last round.

Some guys have the mental fortitude and skillset not seen by the scouts, until they develop.

I get the Pirates, in fact, saw MASN the other night, and they claimed the Birds were looking at that catcher they picked.

Good point about 2 of the teams picking pitchers,

I think Im going to sit back and see how this kid plays out, because I declare this pick, a wasted pick, a money saving move, or maybe even pure genius.

 

I don’t think it’s a wasted pick.  I like Cowser and like him a lot more after reading stuff I read last night and today. Like I said, I’m glad they took him over basically every one else.  
 

I just think they made a mistake not taking Lawlar.

I agree with what Law said.  We have to see how the rest of the draft plays out, particularly the next 3-5 picks but still, I don’t like passing on elite level, high ceiling talent.  
 

Like I said, Elias has a Ravens draft mentality and the Ravens are one of the best drafting teams in the sport..but the one thing you hear about the Os system now is the same thing you heard about the Ravens in years past..the lack the elite talent at the top.  Yes Adley and Grayson are there and maybe Hall too but you need more and there is quite a drop off after their top guys.  The Ravens struggled to get over the top without the elite talent.  They would lose to the Steelers because the killer Bs would make the plays the Ravens just couldn’t.  Once they got Lamar, they started to turn that around.  
 

I’m big on elite.  Those are the guys that win your titles.

[interloper]

People are mad we just drafted Nick Markakis. LOL

[Sports Guy]

Btw, everyone keeps talking about paying more for talent later.

What evidence do we have that this works?  How many guys drafted after R1 that get big overslot deals because their team went underslot early turn out to be something?  
 

Do we have any data on this or we just blindly going with the idea that you add what you can when you can?

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, everyone keeps talking about paying more for talent later.

What evidence do we have that this works?  How many guys drafted after R1 that get big overslot deals because their team went underslot early turn out to be something?  
 

Do we have any data on this or we just blindly going with the idea that you add what you can when you can?

Jake Arrieta won a Cy Young Award. Eventually.

[orioles119]

16 hours ago, eddie83 said:

I’m not bitching about anything. 
 

If Elias misses on multiple high picks it will be hard to compete. I am well aware of other avenues of talent acquisition. The draft is the best way to get better. That also includes picks after the 1st round. 

Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson say hello.

[Hazmat]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, everyone keeps talking about paying more for talent later.

What evidence do we have that this works?  How many guys drafted after R1 that get big overslot deals because their team went underslot early turn out to be something?  
 

Do we have any data on this or we just blindly going with the idea that you add what you can when you can?

Do you expect we'll get 1 player we may not have, maybe with our 2nd pick?  In other words, perhaps we pick a player like one of the 2 Clemson commits.  And that we'll use all of our Cowser savings on that pick.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Hazmat said:

Do you expect we'll get 1 player we may not have, maybe with our 2nd pick?  In other words, perhaps we pick a player like one of the 2 Clemson commits.  And that we'll use all of our Cowser savings on that pick.

You could have one of those guys even if you drafted Lawlar.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Jake Arrieta won a Cy Young Award. Eventually.

We didn't go underslot in R1 to spend more money later, which is what I am asking.

 

Still, Arrieta is an example of an overslot guy who went on and did something.

[Yardball85]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

No, they aren't

K

[MurphDogg]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

We didn't go underslot in R1 to spend more money later.

Yes, it was a totally different situation where they spent more money on a fifth round pick than any previous fifth round pick in draft history. In no way related to a draft method where they save money in the first round to draft a first or second round talent in a later round and pay him as such.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Yes, it was a totally different situation where they spent more money on a fifth round pick than any previous fifth round pick in draft history. In no way related to a draft method where they save money in the first round to draft a first or second round talent in a later round and pay him as such.

Thats all great but its not the question I asked.

 

But sure, way to find one example out of hundreds and thousands to prove a point!

[NCRaven]

How long has the draft slotting system been in place?  You didn't need to save money for later picks before the current system.  So, it hasn't really been that long in the big scheme of the draft universe.

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Thats all great but its not the question I asked.

 

But sure, way to find one example out of hundreds and thousands to prove a point!

You seemed to only be looking for one example, sorry I didn't have time to prepare a treatise. I don't believe there have been hundreds and thousands of over slots though. As far as those under the current system with the hard cap, I can't imagine that there is enough data one way or another to say whether it is a good strategy.