2021 1st round pick (5): Colton Cowser - OF - (Junior) Sam Houston University

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

How long has the draft slotting system been in place?  You didn't need to save money for later picks before the current system.  So, it hasn't really been that long in the big scheme of the draft universe.

I believe since 2013

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

How long has the draft slotting system been in place?  You didn't need to save money for later picks before the current system.  So, it hasn't really been that long in the big scheme of the draft universe.

Yes and no.  The 2008 had the Orioles taking a clear umderslot guy and spreading the total budget.

 

So the strategy predates slotting.

 

[NCRaven]

If that was before we had a hard cap and pool.  So it was just the O's being cheap, more than forced on them by the system, IIRC.

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m big on elite.  Those are the guys that win your titles.

Honestly, you've written a lot of words when this is all you really need to say. It's a philosophical difference from Elias in this case. Either that or Lawler actually isn't the elite talent you're making him out to be. There's also door #3, that the O's and others didn't want Lawler for some other justifiable reason (character, he doesn't want to be here, other concerns).

But really, your general philosophy is definitely defensible. I tend to agree. Elite overcomes depth usually, though you need both ideally.

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, everyone keeps talking about paying more for talent later.

What evidence do we have that this works?  

McCullers is an example of Elias doing it. Whether that's enough information to justify the philosophy more broadly, I don't know, but it likely biases his approach to some extent.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Honestly, you've written a lot of words when this is all you really need to say. It's a philosophical difference from Elias in this case. Either that or Lawler actually isn't the elite talent you're making him out to be. There's also door #3, that the O's and others didn't want Lawler for some other justifiable reason (character, he doesn't want to be here, other concerns).

But really, your general philosophy is definitely defensible. I tend to agree. Elite overcomes depth usually, though you need both ideally.

McCullers is an example of Elias doing it. Whether that's enough information to justify the philosophy more broadly, I don't know, but it likely biases his approach to some extent.

Well, I am not making him out to be an elite talent...those who do it for a living are.

 

And yes,I don't think one circumstance of doing this justifies it.

[Redskins Rick]

36 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I am not making him out to be an elite talent...those who do it for a living are.

 

And yes,I don't think one circumstance of doing this justifies it.

long as you dont Conder Law an good judge of talent.

[John Gibson]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

McCullers is an example of Elias doing it. Whether that's enough information to justify the philosophy more broadly, I don't know, but it likely biases his approach to some extent.

Daz Cameron as well.  He hasn't lit the world on fire but was extremely valuable to the Astros by being one of the key pieces used to acquire Verlander.  Unlikely they get him into the organization w/o having saved ~$1.5m on their #2 overall pick.

[John Gibson]

3 hours ago, sevastras said:

Why does everyone always say Correa was an under slot guy?  He was highly regarded and happen to be available for under slot money but he wasnt truly an under slot guy.

https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/13173-keith-law-thinks-os-should-draft-correa/

 

Correa was typically in the 4-6 range in the mocks leading up to the draft.  He signed for significantly under slot.  Byron Buxton was generally considered to be BPA at the time.  Correa pre draft positioning vs where he was actually picked is not all that different than Cowser pre draft positioning vs where he was actually picked.  

If this was 2012 and the Orioles picked Correa #1 overall and paid him more than $2m under slot instead of taking Buxton we'd see the same kind of posts about how bad a decision they made by being cheap.

[7Mo]

23 minutes ago, John Gibson said:

 

If this was any year and the Orioles picked anyone and paid him under slot, we'd see the same kind of posts about how bad a decision they made by being cheap.

FIFY

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Davis and Cowser are both considered real head scratchers by the Pirates and Orioles, two organizations that are perennially cheap and and at the bottom of their divisions.  Two organizations that, but for a brief stretch in the 2010's are the laughing stock of MLB, struggle to stay competitive, are known for super hit and miss farm systems, and fail to stay relevant.

These teams don't get to recieve the benefit of the doubt when they make picks like this.  They get to recieve every inch of criticism leveled at them.

The Pirates have gone on to draft two guys with major conference football scholarship offers that they will have to pay overslot to get.   That might mitigate some of the criticism of them.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, SteveA said:

The Pirates have gone on to draft two guys with major conference football scholarship offers that they will have to pay overslot to get.   That might mitigate some of the criticism of them.

Yes, they did what you are supposed to do if/when your strategy is go underslot early on.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, waroriole said:

I’ve seen several people make this comment and it’s pretty disingenuous. Cowser or Lawlar have nothing to do with whether this is a good or bad team. Drafting Lawlar doesn’t make us a better team any more than Cowser. Obviously Elias sees the benefit in under slot for the 1st round. He, and our scouts, have a much better feel for signability and career progression than any of the armchair scouts on this site. 

My concern is if we took the BPA or a lesser guy that would sign cheaper so we could overspend later

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

If that was before we had a hard cap and pool.  So it was just the O's being cheap, more than forced on them by the system, IIRC.

They spent 8.8M on that draft.  I think that might have been a record for the team.

Could they have spent more?  Sure.  But 8.8M wasn't cheap in 2009.

[NCRaven]

Shame we could spend some of the Hobgood savings on Tyler Naquin.

[Tony-OH]

My Initial take:

Looks like Elias is going with someone who can move quickly through the minors and be able to get and produce at the major league level quickly. While scouting takes on Cowser are a bit all over the place, he's a three year producer even though his conference is not very strong. He appears to be a high OBP guy with some pop and speed and even if Mullins is still center, he would like real good in Camden Yards spacious left field. 

He appears to b a lower risk guy though with a bit of a lower celling than some other players still available. I wonder though if Kjerstad was playing whether he would be the pick or not?