2021 11th round pick (317): Dylan Heid - RHP - (Senior) Pittsburgh-Johnstown

[7Mo]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I know.  It'll be okay.  

I'm just feeling all this pressure to do this right. It's stressful.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

Why wouldn't it? At this point, these are lottery tickets. We are talking about 11th-20th draft picks. If a guy has played against questionable talent then gets against decent talent and dominates, why wouldn't that affect a decision on a player? Everytime a guy goes to a new level you have to evaluate them against that competition. The high they get with success, the better chance they have of success at the next level.

Personally I think you are on a schtick now and just bashing to bash. It's silly, but feel free to do so. So far I think they've made some interesting picks in the 11th - 13th round so far. 

Yes, they're lottery tickets.  They're all lottery tickets.

I'm sorry if we disagree that D2 senior signs are interesting.  If that's silly schtick, so be it.

[Hank Scorpio]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why wouldn't it? At this point, these are lottery tickets. We are talking about 11th-20th draft picks. If a guy has played against questionable talent then gets against decent talent and dominates, why wouldn't that affect a decision on a player? Everytime a guy goes to a new level you have to evaluate them against that competition. The high they get with success, the better chance they have of success at the next level.

Personally I think you are on a schtick now and just bashing to bash. It's silly, but feel free to do so. So far I think they've made some interesting picks in the 11th - 13th round so far. 

He's pretty schticky in his old age. 

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yes, they're lottery tickets.  They're all lottery tickets.

I'm sorry if we disagree that D2 senior signs are interesting.  If that's silly schtick, so be it.

If i can get a pitcher who throws 94-96 who shows four pitches and has an extreme success of K'ing guys at any level in the 11 round I'm going to think they are interesting.

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why wouldn't it? At this point, these are lottery tickets. We are talking about 11th-20th draft picks. If a guy has played against questionable talent then gets against decent talent and dominates, why wouldn't that affect a decision on a player? Everytime a guy goes to a new level you have to evaluate them against that competition. The high they get with success, the better chance they have of success at the next level.

Personally I think you are on a schtick now and just bashing to bash. It's silly, but feel free to do so. So far I think they've made some interesting picks in the 11th - 13th round so far. 

You like these picks?  I'm not a huge fan of college senior pitchers, and they just took 2 of them.  I get that COVID and the wacky truncated draft last year had something to do with it, so I won't judge them too harshly for it, but that doesn't mean I have to like them.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

If i can get a pitcher who throws 94-96 who shows four pitches and has an extreme success of K'ing guys at any level in the 11 round I'm going to think they are interesting.

That's fine, I understand where you're coming from.

[Just Regular]

I'd be tempted to label this guy more "MLB Draft" league then Division II by now.

The main thing I heard about draft league with the late draft was every agent with anybody any good shunned it.  

Since heavens forbid, Jordan Lawlar go there and Dylan Heid makes him look bad.   But I am sure the MLB Clubs had all their measuring tools, and for guys like this, it was a chance to make some money.    Now we'll just see how much.

I'm not worried about age, being more of the thought that pitchers break more than they age, and as with John Means, who knows when any pitcher 23 years old plus or minus three plugs into the Driveline type stuff.

In this time of deGrom, I don't really value Grayson Rodriguez's youth much relative to his ability to pump fastballs and offspeed stuff that dominates hitters.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

You like these picks?  I'm not a huge fan of college senior pitchers, and they just took 2 of them.  I get that COVID and the wacky truncated draft last year had something to do with it, so I won't judge them too harshly for it, but that doesn't mean I have to like them.

I don't scout these guys until after they are drafted so I really can't make an educated opinion. They seem to have some upside and I'll take a guy throwing 94-96 in the 11th than a McLarty-like guy throwing 89-91 in the 8th round.

People can have any opinion they want on these drafts, but the reality is most of these guys will never play in the major leagues.

I'll wait until I see how the bonuses shake out before having any real opinion on the overall draft besides pointing out the obvious that Elias goes bats first then takes arms on day 3.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, OrioleDog said:

I'd be tempted to label this guy more "MLB Draft" league then Division II by now.

The main thing I heard about draft league with the late draft was every agent with anybody any good shunned it.  

Since heavens forbid, Jordan Lawlar go there and Dylan Heid makes him look bad.   But I am sure the MLB Clubs had all their measuring tools, and for guys like this, it was a chance to make some money.    Now we'll just see how much.

I'm not worried about age, being more of the thought that pitchers break more than they age, and as with John Means, who knows when any pitcher 23 years old plus or minus three plugs into the Driveline type stuff.

In this time of deGrom, I don't really value Grayson Rodriguez's youth much relative to his ability to pump fastballs and offspeed stuff that dominates hitters.

Heid was ranked the 17th best pitcher in the league.

"37/5 K/BB; 109 Hop+ score, 91-94 mph, elite extension (avg. 7 ft), 21.7" IVB, 43.7% Whiff.

 

[Aglets]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I don't scout these guys until after they are drafted so I really can't make an educated opinion. They seem to have some upside and I'll take a guy throwing 94-96 in the 11th than a McLarty-like guy throwing 89-91 in the 8th round.

People can have any opinion they want on these drafts, but the reality is most of these guys will never play in the major leagues.

I'll wait until I see how the bonuses shake out before having any real opinion on the overall draft besides pointing out the obvious that Elias goes bats first then takes arms on day 3.

In the dialog that Melewski shared yesterday with Ciolek they definitely dropped some hints (imo) as to why they tend to lean a bit more towards bats....and especially COLLEGE bats.  Seems to me they are just a lot more comfortable with the data they have on those batters vs pitchers.

In case people missed it (emphasis mine):

 “Bottom line, we’re looking to take the best available player, and granted there is a lot of data and analytic insights with the college bat demographic that we feel very strongly and comfortable with. So we went ahead and made sure to target those guys early and often through the top 10 rounds.

“It’s one of those things where we always have pitchers lined up, you know, up and down our board, and ultimately we have to make a decision and take the risk into account. But we will be looking extensively at some arms tomorrow.”

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Aglets said:

In the dialog that Melewski shared yesterday with Ciolek they definitely dropped some hints (imo) as to why they tend to lean a bit more towards bats....and especially COLLEGE bats.  Seems to me they are just a lot more comfortable with the data they have on those batters vs pitchers.

In case people missed it (emphasis mine):

 “Bottom line, we’re looking to take the best available player, and granted there is a lot of data and analytic insights with the college bat demographic that we feel very strongly and comfortable with. So we went ahead and made sure to target those guys early and often through the top 10 rounds.

“It’s one of those things where we always have pitchers lined up, you know, up and down our board, and ultimately we have to make a decision and take the risk into account. But we will be looking extensively at some arms tomorrow.”

 

That sounds like they went with the picks they were most comfortable making not who they thought the BPA was.

 

[Aglets]

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That sounds like they went with the picks they were most comfortable making not who they thought the BPA was.

 

I think this is the pessimistic view on what he is saying.  I think they view prospects as potentially large uncertainty windows and by sticking more with college bats they feel they have identified talent with less uncertainty.   They prefer guys where they know more what they are getting themselves into, vs guys that sure may have higher upside but they may just flame out too.  I think just disparaging that as "comfort over who they think is BPA" is not exactly fair.

[LookinUp]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That sounds like they went with the picks they were most comfortable making not who they thought the BPA was.

 

Don't think I agree. It does sound to me like they're so reliant on their data that they're hamstrung when Covid offers less data on high school guys. It also sounds like they're more comfortable in hitting models and/or don't like the data that is available on college pitchers.

Basically, the O's went for the rock solid 7 chick with a head on her shoulders over the 10 that's giving them the eyes because they're worried they've never seen the 10 before in their small town and wonder why she's walking around with a pool stick, a shot glass and has no friends. 

[jabba72]

Has a nice frame 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think Ryan Ripken should be nervous.

Why, are any of these guys secretly Cal’s other son?