Your initial 2021 draft grade

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Did they set up the model?

Setting up a model and manipulating a model are not the same thing.   It’s like Dan Szymborski and Zips.   He puts in the best factors he can based on his research and Zips spits out the results.  He doesn’t go change it because he didn’t like the result he got for Vlad Jr.

My point is, if they’ve determined that hitters are 10% less risky than pitchers, they factor it in proportionately.   They don’t just say to themselves “gee, I think hitters are less risky than pitchers, how much of a factor do you think we should use for that?” and then just use whatever figure they please.  I’m not saying their model is perfect, or that there isn’t any subjectivity in it (because I understand scout evaluations are factored in).   But they’re not manipulating the system to bias the results.   The whole point is to have as unbiased a system as they can devise.  

[Sydnor]

4 hours ago, LTO's said:

The vast majority of players in the top 30 for fWAR in 2021 are college guys. HS players are the minority by a substantial margin. I don't think you should only draft college players and the Orioles under Elias haven't done that. They've drafted Henderson, Hernaiz, Mayo, Baumler and Willems. But Elias is right when he says that college performers are statistically likely to provide more value over time. 

 

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Is he?  I think most elite level guys are HS or Intl FA.

Very possible that the college player has the better overall career, generally speaking.  Only so many elite guys, so the “normal player” could be more of a college guy than HS or Intl.

Do you have data on that other than the top 30 in the first half of 1 season because that’s pretty meaningless data to make the proclamation that college performers are more valuable.

Top 90 position players from 2010 to 2020 by fWAR:

28 high school players

35 college players

23 international players

4 JUCO players

Top 60 pitchers (number 61 was Jason Hammel) from 2010 to 2020 by fWAR:

16 high school pitchers

25 college pitchers

16 international pitchers

3 JUCO pitchers

The top 8 pitchers were all first round picks. Lester at 9 was a second round pick. Kluber at 10 was a 4th round pick.

 

[baltfan]

9 minutes ago, Sydnor said:

 

Top 90 position players from 2010 to 2020 by fWAR:

28 high school players

35 college players

23 international players

4 JUCO players

Top 60 pitchers (number 61 was Jason Hammel) from 2010 to 2020 by fWAR:

16 high school pitchers

25 college pitchers

16 international pitchers

3 JUCO pitchers

The top 8 pitchers were all first round picks. Lester at 9 was a second round pick. Kluber at 10 was a 4th round pick.

 

This is good work but even going back 10 years is really dangerous.  Some of these people could have been drafted 15 or even 20 years ago.  Teams approach the draft far differently now and that will affect whether guys are drafted out of college or high school.

[Just Regular]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I just wonder if the Os see the future of starting pitching be even less than it is now and that they aren’t in a hurry to reach for guys with higher upside on the mound because the game is devaluing those guys to a point.

I mean sure, you want guys who throw 200+ innings but we they are becoming few and far between and perhaps they don’t feel the need to reach for that player over the more sure thing? 

I think Clubs have shown enough evidence you can suppress runs making it a relay race that without roster rules changes it could get to the point that unless you are as good as John Means' best self teams aren't even going to want you for more than 100-125 innings, at least if the team is good enough to have high playoff odds all year along.

I believe the first good Adley teams will be somewhat like the Buck teams, riding the best players hard chasing that wildcard, but Sig won't let things get as out of hand as Buck did.

The 2020 Dodgers leader had 10 starts, the 2018-2019 Dodgers won 200 games and only had three Pitcher Seasons over ~160 innings.

Some Adley year, the Orioles will chase a playoff berth with 400+ innings from their two best pitchers, which they should, but the super clubs will smile at the tax on the asset.   In this vein, I don't mind a Gerrit Cole fueled wildcard run this second half.

Hopefully the best Adley teams will be able to rest up Rodriguez for six months like the Dodgers do Buehler.

I think I'm rooting for the eventual playoff structure to do something to give value to marginal wins 86-106 so the best players have to try hard more.    Like, each playoff game you get as many free Ball 1's or Strike 1's for your team the first 5-10 plate appearances in the 1st/2nd inning as your team outplayed opponent over the 162.