What does this draft "mean" in terms of the Elias plan?

[baltfan]

56 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Just look at the AS game roster, full of HS and International signees under the age of 18

Even Mullins was a college So, drafted at 20

We got a draft with the upside of a ML contributor or two, not going to push the needle towards a championship team

I think the groundwork is continuing to be layed for selling the team.... at least that is my only hope

While I agree with you that the roster is full of international signees, it isn't full of high school draftees.  Since you can't draft international players, the issue here is Elias's approach of college vs. high school players.  On this years team, there are 36 guys drafted out of college and 21 out of high school.  14/36 of the college draftees were from the first round or comp picks.  12/21 of the high school guys were comp or 1st round picks.   This suggests that college guys, especially after the comp round are a much better bet than high school players.  Of course, you can say some of that is due to slotting, but who cares?  It does you no good to pick a high school guy later and not sign him.  

 

 Salvador Perez (KC)
1B: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
2B: Marcus Semien (TOR)  - 6th, college
3B: Rafael Devers (BOS)
SS: Xander Bogaerts (BOS)
OF: Mike Trout (LAA)* - 1st, high
OF: Aaron Judge (NYY) - 1st, college
OF: Teoscar Hernández (TOR)
DH: Shohei Ohtani (LAA)

 

Pitcher/Designated hitter
Shohei Ohtani

• All-Star team-by-team breakdown

Reserves
 Mike Zunino (TB) - 1st, college
2B: Jose Altuve (HOU)*
2B: Whit Merrifield (KC)+ - 9th, college
SS: Bo Bichette (TOR) - 2nd, high
SS: Carlos Correa (HOU)* - 1st, high
SS: Tim Anderson (CWS) + - 1st, college
SS: Joey Wendle (TB)+ - 6th, college
1B: Matt Olson (OAK) - comp, high
3B: José Ramírez (CLE)
1B: Jared Walsh (LAA) - 39th, college
OF: Michael Brantley (HOU)* - 7th, high
OF: Joey Gallo (TEX) - comp, high
OF: Adolis García (TEX)
OF: Cedric Mullins (BAL) - 8th, college
DH: J.D. Martinez (BOS) - 20th, college
DH: Nelson Cruz (MIN)

 

• All-Star FAQ: All you need to know on rosters

Starting Pitchers
RHP: Shane Bieber (CLE)* - 4th, college
RHP: Gerrit Cole (NYY)* - 1st, college
RHP: Nathan Eovaldi (BOS) - 1st, high
RHP: Kyle Gibson (TEX) - 1st, college
LHP: Yusei Kikuchi (SEA)*
RHP: Lance Lynn (CWS) - comp, college
LHP: Carlos Rodón (CWS) - 1st, college
RHP: Chris Bassitt (OAK)+ - 16th, college

Relievers
RHP: Matt Barnes (BOS) - 1st, college
LHP: Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
RHP: Liam Hendriks (CWS)
RHP: Ryan Pressly (HOU)* - 11th, high
LHP: Gregory Soto (DET)
LHP: Taylor Rogers (MIN)+ - 11th, college
RHP: Andrew Kittredge (TB)+ - 45th, college

• Your 2021 All-Stars by position

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Elected starters
 Buster Posey (SF)* - 1st, college
1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL) - 2nd, high
2B: Adam Frazier (PIT) - 6th, college
3B: Nolan Arenado (STL) - 2nd, high
SS: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD)
OF: Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL)*
OF: Nick Castellanos (CIN) - comp, high
OF: Jesse Winker (CIN) - comp, high

Reserves
 J.T. Realmuto (PHI) - 3rd, high
 Yadier Molina (STL)+* - 4th, high
 Omar Narváez (MIL)*
2B: Ozzie Albies (ATL)
3B: Kris Bryant (CHC) - 1st, high
SS: Brandon Crawford (SF) - 4th, college
2B: Jake Cronenworth (SD) - 7th, college
3B: Eduardo Escobar (ARI)
3B: Justin Turner (LAD)+ - 7th, college
3B: Manny Machado (SD)+- 1st, high
1B: Max Muncy (LAD) - 5th, college
SS: Trea Turner (WSH) - 1st, college
OF: Mookie Betts (LAD)* - 5th, high
OF: Bryan Reynolds (PIT) - 2nd, college
OF: Kyle Schwarber (WSH)* -1st, college
OF: Juan Soto (WSH)
OF: Chris Taylor (LAD) - 5th, college

Starting pitchers
RHP: Corbin Burnes (MIL) - 4th, college
RHP: Yu Darvish (SD)* 
RHP: Jacob deGrom (NYM)* - 9th, college
RHP: Kevin Gausman (SF)* - 1st, college
RHP: Germán Márquez (COL)
LHP: Trevor Rogers (MIA) - 1st, high
RHP: Zack Wheeler (PHI) - 1st, high
RHP: Brandon Woodruff (MIL)* - 11th, college
RHP: Walker Buehler (LAD)+ - 1st, college
RHP: Max Scherzer (WSH)+  -1st, college
RHP: Freddy Peralta (MIL)+
RHP: Taijuan Walker (NYM)+ - comp, high

Relievers
LHP: Josh Hader (MIL) - 19th, high
RHP: Craig Kimbrel (CHC) 3rd, college
RHP: Mark Melancon (SD) - 9th, college
RHP: Alex Reyes (STL)

 

 

 

[Sports Guy]

I hope the pitchers drafted can be relievers that move quickly.  That definitely could be part of his thinking and I think that’s a smart way to go.

[LTO's]

6 minutes ago, baltfan said:

While I agree with you that the roster is full of international signees, it isn't full of high school draftees. 

I already explained this to him but he keeps at it. Since the all-star voting system is already imperfect I looked at the 2021 fWAR leaders and HS picks were the clear minority by a large margin. I count 6 in the top 30 and ironically the top position player of that group is associated with Elias. College picks are the clear majority and by a decent margin. 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, sevastras said:

My draft thoughts, by Jack Handy:

Elias went with very safe stable picks...

@Tony-OHYour opinion is well respected, would you say that the top end of this years draft was weak would fall into the middle of the first round toward the end of the first round in a stronger draft year?  I think the lack of top end talent was off set by the talent being more solid where there wasnt a big difference between the #16 guy or the #41 guy(random numbers)

From what I saw from the selections in the first round, opinions varied greatly but also that the talent difference was not very big this year. I do think Elias went with the "safer" college bat picks, but I think he went with the picks that he liked the best. From what I understand, it doesn't appear he really went underslot on guys, just he thought those guys were the BPA.

Of course, BPA is the player's who talent and risk profile combined makes him the selection. It appears that Elias didn't go for the high risk, high reward player in this draft, and he certainly eschewed away from pitchers in the first ten rounds once again.

I don't have a strong opinion on the drafted players because I certainly have not done enough scouting on these guys to tell Elias and company they were wrong for making any selection.

But what is clear from the video scouting and reading I've done so far is that they leaned heavily towards production at the college level. It's a very moneyball-esque approach except they've added statcast type metrics leaning toward high EV players and guys with good spin rates. They've also took guys who profile well defensively until those guys were basically gone then they went with bat upside guys.

Overall, I would have liked to have seen a few more high schoolers from the 5th round on but I don't know who was available, their signability and so forth. With COVID limitations this was still a little bit of crapshoot more than a normal year so I think that's another reason they went very college heavy.

[Philip]

If we got 20 total players, that means we’ve got 20 new spots to create. How many of the college guys will be able to start out at AA? Is that ever done at all?

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Philip said:

If we got 20 total players, that means we’ve got 20 new spots to create. How many of the college guys will be able to start out at AA? Is that ever done at all?

In an interview on 105.7 the Fan Elias said the college player will start in the FCL to get their feet wet then move to Delmarva.

[7Mo]

What it means to me is Elias may be following the Rays approach more closely than I originally believed. And that's a very risk averse approach, the opposite of taking the marquee name or huge upside pick.

The Rays let Charlie Morton walk this offseason after he had a great season for them. Their view was they could either pay Morton $15M or they could sign a number of guys for that same amount of money, and that led to Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh, Chas Roe and Oliver Drake. Risk averse. I can only imagine the gnashing of teeth and cries of "cheap" on this board were that to happen here. 

The Rays WAR leaders right now don't come from their own high draft picks. Tyler Glasnow came in the Archer trade, Zunino was a FA sign at a low dollar figure, Brandon Lowe was a 3rd round pick, Joey Wendle was a 6th round pick by the Indians, Austin Meadows came in the Archer trade, Collin McHugh was a FA sign with a portion of the Morton money, Manuel Margot was an international sign acquired in trade, Yandy Diaz was an international sign acquired in trade, Randy Arozarena acquired in trade, Ryan Yarbrough is a Seattle 4th round pick acquired in trade.

To view this draft and try to project what the O's will look like in 2023 or 2024 is folly. Guys will overachieve, guys will underachieve, pitchers will break, some guys will come out of nowhere. But I think a lot of the value the 2024 O's have will come from trades. 

To this point, Elias hasn't had much value to trade. There's a limit to what you can acquire for Cashner, Cobb, Givens, and Bundy. There is significantly more you can acquire for Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. 

I agree with the posts above that say Elias isn't looking at a window of contention. I think he's going to follow a risk averse approach that hopefully lands 8-9 position players on the field that are at least average major leaguers, but without the 1-2-3 Juan Soto's or Vlad Jr's, etc. And a byproduct will be just like you see with the Rays, when Chris Archer or Blake Snell have peak value, they're replaced by 3-4-5 guys who cumulatively produce the same or greater value, just as with Morton above. 

The posters who want to yell "cheap" and "this is what you do to sell a team" can do so. But that won't necessarily be accurate. Or not the primary reason. 

We all talk about the limits on the O's. But this approach is something the Yankees can't do, the Red Sox can't do, Toronto probably can't, the Cardinals can't and they're headed straight downhill for the next several years. Those fanbases would not allow it. 

If you truly admire what the Rays have done, and Oakland, and I do, I think you have to understand that risk averse decisions are going to be the norm for years to come, not the shiny high ceiling HS guy or the Blake Snell as he becomes more expensive. I'm all on board with that idea.

Unfortunately, I think 2022 is gonna suck on the MLB level with the exception of 4-5-6 guys coming up that we can look forward to, or maybe several more than that. But that should lead to some FA adds in winter 2022 for the 2023 season to make that a lot of fun.

All of this is based on not one single bit of inside information or actual knowledge. Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

[LookinUp]

I do think that Elias' draft strategy "means" that his plan for acquiring pitching at the ML level is not centered on drafting high profile arms.

I do not think it means that Elias does not have a plan to acquire pitching at the ML level.

I wonder when he's going to put that plan into motion (e.g., trades or FA signings at the ML level), because he clearly hasn't to date.

[Philip]

47 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

What it means to me is Elias may be following the Rays approach more closely than I originally believed. And that's a very risk averse approach, the opposite of taking the marquee name or huge upside pick.

The Rays let Charlie Morton walk this offseason after he had a great season for them. Their view was they could either pay Morton $15M or they could sign a number of guys for that same amount of money, and that led to Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh, Chas Roe and Oliver Drake. Risk averse. I can only imagine the gnashing of teeth and cries of "cheap" on this board were that to happen here. 

The Rays WAR leaders right now don't come from their own high draft picks. Tyler Glasnow came in the Archer trade, Zunino was a FA sign at a low dollar figure, Brandon Lowe was a 3rd round pick, Joey Wendle was a 6th round pick by the Indians, Austin Meadows came in the Archer trade, Collin McHugh was a FA sign with a portion of the Morton money, Manuel Margot was an international sign acquired in trade, Yandy Diaz was an international sign acquired in trade, Randy Arozarena acquired in trade, Ryan Yarbrough is a Seattle 4th round pick acquired in trade.

To view this draft and try to project what the O's will look like in 2023 or 2024 is folly. Guys will overachieve, guys will underachieve, pitchers will break, some guys will come out of nowhere. But I think a lot of the value the 2024 O's have will come from trades. 

To this point, Elias hasn't had much value to trade. There's a limit to what you can acquire for Cashner, Cobb, Givens, and Bundy. There is significantly more you can acquire for Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. 

I agree with the posts above that say Elias isn't looking at a window of contention. I think he's going to follow a risk averse approach that hopefully lands 8-9 position players on the field that are at least average major leaguers, but without the 1-2-3 Juan Soto's or Vlad Jr's, etc. And a byproduct will be just like you see with the Rays, when Chris Archer or Blake Snell have peak value, they're replaced by 3-4-5 guys who cumulatively produce the same or greater value, just as with Morton above. 

The posters who want to yell "cheap" and "this is what you do to sell a team" can do so. But that won't necessarily be accurate. Or not the primary reason. 

We all talk about the limits on the O's. But this approach is something the Yankees can't do, the Red Sox can't do, Toronto probably can't, the Cardinals can't and they're headed straight downhill for the next several years. Those fanbases would not allow it. 

If you truly admire what the Rays have done, and Oakland, and I do, I think you have to understand that risk averse decisions are going to be the norm for years to come, not the shiny high ceiling HS guy or the Blake Snell as he becomes more expensive. I'm all on board with that idea.

Unfortunately, I think 2022 is gonna suck on the MLB level with the exception of 4-5-6 guys coming up that we can look forward to, or maybe several more than that. But that should lead to some FA adds in winter 2022 for the 2023 season to make that a lot of fun.

All of this is based on not one single bit of inside information or actual knowledge. Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

The Rays’ plan is correct. I don’t know what the Cardinals do from year to year, but whatever they do works as well. I think the Rays’ plan is exactly what we should do and I would recommend that kind of approach regardless, because it saves you spending lots of money on one player, allows you to sign lots of players, knowing that some of them won’t pan out, and it gives you a large pool of possibles. The downside is that you lose worthwhile guys in the rule 5, and you have to DFA guys who can still produce. Oh well.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Philip

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I do think that Elias' draft strategy "means" that his plan for acquiring pitching at the ML level is not centered on drafting high profile arms.

I do not think it means that Elias does not have a plan to acquire pitching at the ML level.

I wonder when he's going to put that plan into motion (e.g., trades or FA signings at the ML level), because he clearly hasn't to date.

Sure he has.  Means, GRod, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish, Zimmermann.   He is developing ML pitching talent.

[jamalshw]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sure he has.  Means, GRod, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish, Zimmermann.   He is developing ML pitching talent.

I think these two are the interesting ones. Wells and Bradish acquired in more under-the-radar ways (Rule 5 and as part of a 4-for-1 trade package). Both--based on their performances since getting to the O's--appear to have been under-appreciated. 

I'm really curious about this teams' pitching program. As the grow the arms piece seems to be focused on guys we can acquire on the cheap and make into something usable. 

 

On the risk-adverse picks this draft, I'm also curious what the data shows here. I'm sure there's some algorithm to break down the risk/reward proposition on the lower risk/lower reward versus high risk/high reward guys. 

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Sure he has.  Means, GRod, DL, Tyler Wells, Bradish, Zimmermann.   He is developing ML pitching talent.

I suspect Elias is aware that the list you provided alone won't produce a winning ML staff. Same is likely true when you include Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Akin, etc. He needs to add to this group.

[wildcard]

49 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

What it means to me is Elias may be following the Rays approach more closely than I originally believed. And that's a very risk averse approach, the opposite of taking the marquee name or huge upside pick.

The Rays let Charlie Morton walk this offseason after he had a great season for them. Their view was they could either pay Morton $15M or they could sign a number of guys for that same amount of money, and that led to Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Collin McHugh, Chas Roe and Oliver Drake. Risk averse. I can only imagine the gnashing of teeth and cries of "cheap" on this board were that to happen here. 

The Rays WAR leaders right now don't come from their own high draft picks. Tyler Glasnow came in the Archer trade, Zunino was a FA sign at a low dollar figure, Brandon Lowe was a 3rd round pick, Joey Wendle was a 6th round pick by the Indians, Austin Meadows came in the Archer trade, Collin McHugh was a FA sign with a portion of the Morton money, Manuel Margot was an international sign acquired in trade, Yandy Diaz was an international sign acquired in trade, Randy Arozarena acquired in trade, Ryan Yarbrough is a Seattle 4th round pick acquired in trade.

To view this draft and try to project what the O's will look like in 2023 or 2024 is folly. Guys will overachieve, guys will underachieve, pitchers will break, some guys will come out of nowhere. But I think a lot of the value the 2024 O's have will come from trades. 

To this point, Elias hasn't had much value to trade. There's a limit to what you can acquire for Cashner, Cobb, Givens, and Bundy. There is significantly more you can acquire for Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. 

I agree with the posts above that say Elias isn't looking at a window of contention. I think he's going to follow a risk averse approach that hopefully lands 8-9 position players on the field that are at least average major leaguers, but without the 1-2-3 Juan Soto's or Vlad Jr's, etc. And a byproduct will be just like you see with the Rays, when Chris Archer or Blake Snell have peak value, they're replaced by 3-4-5 guys who cumulatively produce the same or greater value, just as with Morton above. 

The posters who want to yell "cheap" and "this is what you do to sell a team" can do so. But that won't necessarily be accurate. Or not the primary reason. 

We all talk about the limits on the O's. But this approach is something the Yankees can't do, the Red Sox can't do, Toronto probably can't, the Cardinals can't and they're headed straight downhill for the next several years. Those fanbases would not allow it. 

If you truly admire what the Rays have done, and Oakland, and I do, I think you have to understand that risk averse decisions are going to be the norm for years to come, not the shiny high ceiling HS guy or the Blake Snell as he becomes more expensive. I'm all on board with that idea.

Unfortunately, I think 2022 is gonna suck on the MLB level with the exception of 4-5-6 guys coming up that we can look forward to, or maybe several more than that. But that should lead to some FA adds in winter 2022 for the 2023 season to make that a lot of fun.

All of this is based on not one single bit of inside information or actual knowledge. Just my thoughts from 10,000 feet.

I agree with a lot of this but not this:

Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. 

Mancini tenure with the O's depends on whether he is willing to sign a 2 year contract with an option year IMO.  If he will he is not traded for at least a year maybe longer.  If he is not then he is probably traded at the deadline or over the winter.

Mullins is already being promote by the O's as the face of the organization and he will probably be an Orioles until 2024.

Santander is probably here until 2023 if he performs well.  Could be gone sooner if he doesn't.

Fry, Scott and Tate its hard to say with relievers.  But I could see them here until 2023 unless the offer is real attractive.

 

[7Mo]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I agree with a lot of this but not this:

Mancini, Means, Mullins, Santander, Fry, Scott, Tate, etc. I'm not saying all of those guys get traded this July. But I think they're all gone within the next year. 

Mancini tenure with the O's depends on whether he is willing to sign a 2 year contract with an option year IMO.  If he will he is not traded for at least a year maybe longer.  If he is not then he is probably traded at the deadline or over the winter.

Mullins is already being promote by the O's as the face of the organization and he will probably be an Orioles until 2024.

Santander is probably here until 2023 if he performs well.  Could be gone sooner if he doesn't.

Fry, Scott and Tate its hard to say with relievers.  But I could see them here until 2023 unless the offer is real attractive.

 

I understand that you disagree on those guys. And obviously they won't be traded unless someone offers enough value back. You and I just look at the approach and plan for these guys differently. No way to know either way right now.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I suspect Elias is aware that the list you provided alone won't produce a winning ML staff. Same is likely true when you include Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Akin, etc. He needs to add to this group.

That is an unknown even to Elias.  He has quality and quantity of pitching prospects right now.  Some will be starter and some relievers.  Some will pan out, some will not. Right now he has a hole at closer.   If he sees its not good enough he adjusts.  But first he has to continue to develop these pitchers, give them opportunities before spending money in trades to supplement them if needed.