Ciolek comments on strategy re drafting pitchers

[interloper]

You all should watch the two youtubes posted from this interview. It's given me a lot of confidence that they are very sure about what they're doing.

Honestly, I think the strategy of going college hitters early is pretty sound. Considering how volatile pitchers can be, why not take older pitchers in later rounds who are easier to project and that you have much more data about? That's really what this has been about. It looks like overly safe picks from our vantage, but I have a feeling it will work out in the end. Like it or not, this is their strategy and it's based on a lot of data and a lot of proprietary strategy. I don't see the point in bashing it until we see if it works in the end.  

[joelala]

41 minutes ago, interloper said:

You all should watch the two youtubes posted from this interview. It's given me a lot of confidence that they are very sure about what they're doing.

Honestly, I think the strategy of going college hitters early is pretty sound. Considering how volatile pitchers can be, why not take older pitchers in later rounds who are easier to project and that you have much more data about? That's really what this has been about. It looks like overly safe picks from our vantage, but I have a feeling it will work out in the end. Like it or not, this is their strategy and it's based on a lot of data and a lot of proprietary strategy. I don't see the point in bashing it until we see if it works in the end.  

Nice, thanks. 

[Frobby]

Here’s my issue.   I might go to the grocery store and find out that cereal is a better value than milk that week.   But if my refrigerator is already low on milk, I’m not going to buy only cereal.   

I’m fine with thinking it’s easier to identify hitters who will be successful compared to pitchers.   But in my opinion you can only take that so far.   You aren’t going to find many good pitchers after round 10.  So you can lean towards the hitters but you can’t choose them almost exclusively in the top 10 rounds.   

I also don’t believe it’s an easy thing to acquire good pitchers in trades or via free agency. 

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Here’s my issue.   I might go to the grocery store and find out that cereal is a better value than milk that week.   But if my refrigerator is already low on milk, I’m not going to buy only cereal.   

I’m fine with thinking it’s easier to identify hitters who will be successful compared to pitchers.   But in my opinion you can only take that so far.   You aren’t going to find many good pitchers after round 10.  So you can lean towards the hitters but you can’t choose them almost exclusively in the top 10 rounds.   

I also don’t believe it’s an easy thing to acquire good pitchers in trades or via free agency. 

 

Right, something can be undervalued and still not be a worthwhile acquisition.  Sure a 15th round senior pitcher could have organizational value that exceeds his draft status but his lower ceiling limits how many players of that ilk you should be adding.

I view it as being the opposite of the super toolsy 16 year old international prospects.  Are they probably overvalued?  Sure, but the potential payoff is so much higher, so you overpay.

 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

You all should watch the two youtubes posted from this interview. It's given me a lot of confidence that they are very sure about what they're doing.

Honestly, I think the strategy of going college hitters early is pretty sound. Considering how volatile pitchers can be, why not take older pitchers in later rounds who are easier to project and that you have much more data about? That's really what this has been about. It looks like overly safe picks from our vantage, but I have a feeling it will work out in the end. Like it or not, this is their strategy and it's based on a lot of data and a lot of proprietary strategy. I don't see the point in bashing it until we see if it works in the end.  

Most of these interviews had been reported by Melewski in the last couple of days in print.   My one takeaway was that they really like the 5th round pitcher Carlos Tavera.   Sits 92-94, touches 96, has a feel for the slider and a plus changeup.   I’ll definitely keep an eye on him!

[interloper]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Most of these interviews had been reported by Melewski in the last couple of days in print.   My one takeaway was that they really like the 5th round pitcher Carlos Tavera.   Sits 92-94, touches 96, has a feel for the slider and a plus changeup.   I’ll definitely keep an eye on him!

Yeah I just always think it's good to see the person say the things sometimes. Adds another subtle layer of context and human-ness. Ciolek seems like a personable dude who we don't see a lot of, so I found it interesting listening to him speak. I think he's probably an underrated component of the Elias crew. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, interloper said:

Yeah I just always think it's good to see the person say the things sometimes. Adds another subtle layer of context and human-ness. Ciolek seems like a personable dude who we don't see a lot of, so I found it interesting listening to him speak. I think he's probably an underrated component of the Elias crew. 

I agree with you.   Should’ve thanked you for posting them.  And there were a few tidbits in there that Melewski didn’t report.  

[Tony-OH]

I don't have a strong opinion on their drafting strategy since I don't have all the data they are going off of, but I do find it interesting that the strategy is almost the polar opposite of the Dodgers and Angels this year. I'm in the wait and see and while I have always preferred a balance approach (college juniors and high school players with upside), I will be interesting to see how this works. 

[coe76]

Looks like the O’s are trying to catch lightning in a bottle regarding pitching.  Unfortunately, it may have been a Jack Daniels bottle and the O’s braintrust emptied it before making their picks.  Hope they get lucky.

[NCRaven]

I will not draw any conclusions based on the 2020 and 2021 COVID drafts.  Hopefully next year is more “normal” and we’ll see what that looks like.  Having said that, 2019 was college batter heavy will Henderson and Hernaiz the only top 10 high schoolers.  So the college hitter bias does look like a thing.