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We should be at least a little more competitive

SteveA

By SteveA
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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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As we move forward.

1) Means should be back in our rotation for the second series.

2)There are situations where it is really not possible for us to get worse, and there is at least a possibility of improvement:

  • Harvey will either continue to be awful, show at least a little improvement, or finally be replaced by someone who can't possibly be any worse
  • Our production at 3rd won't get any worse, it has been terrible.   If Franco comes back, one would hope he at least hits better than he has so far, based on his track record.   If he does not, then Gutierrez would be hard pressed to be any worse with the bat than Franco was and is an improvement with the glove.   If we bring someone else up like Bannon, they would be unlikely to be worse than what we have gotten
  • The same is true for Severino.   He won't get worse, because his offense/defense are pretty much rock bottom.   He could improve a bit offensively, based on his career #s, or else he could be replaced by someone who is unlikely to be any worse than he has been.
  • The same is true for second base.   It will either continue to be awful, or we will make some sort of change that might also be awful, but wouldn't be worse and could be better.
  • Several other guys are performing below their expected level:  Santander, Hays.
  • Honestly, we only have one guy really overperforming who could significantly regress to the mean, that's Mullins.   Urias is pretty hot now and that will likely cool down, but we also will get Galvis off the IL at some point.

3) Schedule.   We have played a ridiculous 75 of 89 games (84%) of games vs teams that currently have a winning record.   Only 3 of our next 15 games (20%) are vs a team with a winning record.   Then it gets hard again (25 of 31, 81%), then we finish with a stretch of 16/27 (59%).   Our overall 2nd half is 60% vs teams with a winning record, so it's substantially easier.

I'd like to think that we will be more competitive in games and win a few more just because of the schedule, as well as the other factors mentioned above.    We would have to go 35-38 to avoid losing 100 games, however, and that seems pretty unlikely.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I wish I was optimistic.   Take away April and we’ve played .254 ball since then.  We actually got decent pitching in April, and it wasn’t just Means.   But I don’t see April-level pitching returning as the season progresses, even if Means returns and performs well (which isn’t a certainty).   The pitching staff stinks and the overused bullpen will probably get worse as the season goes on.  

The best point you make is that the second half schedule is a lot easier.   FWIW, Fangraphs currently projects us to finish 58-104, meaning 30-43 (.411) the rest of the way.   That would certainly be better than we’re doing now.   
 

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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Is there a guess yet on when Galvis will be back? His absence has really sunk the infield.

Franco will have a hot month-six weeks sometime during the second half.

Less Stewart and more Hays and Santander will help. I've liked McKenna as a reserve outfielder.

We utterly need consistently good performance from Mountcastle, Mancini, and Mullens and I think we'll get it, although with some regression, of course, from whatever first half peaks they had.

I'd rather have Wynns be the main catcher than Severino.

Along with Means, someone among Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Zimmerman (Is he out for the season?), Watkins, and Lopez has to deliver. Otherwise it's a race to the bottom with Arizona et al no matter how well we hit, field, or run.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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10 hours ago, LA2 said:

Is there a guess yet on when Galvis will be back? His absence has really sunk the infield.

They are hoping to have him back by the end of the month.  He’s expected to begin rehabbing in Sarasota shortly.  

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  • 3 weeks later...
SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

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On 7/14/2021 at 4:29 PM, SteveA said:

 

3) Schedule.   We have played a ridiculous 75 of 89 games (84%) of games vs teams that currently have a winning record.   Only 3 of our next 15 games (20%) are vs a team with a winning record.   Then it gets hard again (25 of 31, 81%), then we finish with a stretch of 16/27 (59%).   Our overall 2nd half is 60% vs teams with a winning record, so it's substantially easier.

.

And we went 9-6 (.600) in that 15 game stretch.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

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5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The only way it would be a hell of a lot better (as a major league team) was if it was in the KBO.

I know that reality seems to upset you, but switch the O's and Rangers in their divisions.  And I guarantee the O's would have more wins.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I know that reality seems to upset you, but switch the O's and Rangers in their divisions.  And I guarantee the O's would have more wins.

AL East outside of the Orioles.

236-181

AL West outside of Texas

231- 189

 

What makes you think the O's would look "a hell of a lot better" in the AL West?  They would still have four teams that are clearly superior to them.

Might they have 40 wins instead of 37?  Sure, they might.  Who cares?

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