We should be at least a little more competitive

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The ALE argument is such a cop out.

You aren't losing 100 games because of your division.  You are losing 100 games because you aren't good.

[Pickles]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You aren't losing 100 games because of your division.  You are losing 100 games because you aren't good.

Nobody's arguing the Orioles are good.

However, they do have the most difficult schedule in baseball.  A large part of that is their division.

These are facts.  Why you and SG get so upset when they're mentioned, and act as if acknowledging reality is some moral failing, I'll never understand.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Nobody's arguing the Orioles are good.

However, they do have the most difficult schedule in baseball.  A large part of that is their division.

These are facts.  Why you and SG get so upset when they're mentioned, and act as if acknowledging reality is some moral failing, I'll never understand.

Because people use it as a crutch and act as if that’s why we suck.

Yes it’s a challenging schedule but they have navigated it just fine in the past.  They are (or were) a very poorly run organization with arguably the worst owner in sports.

Thsts why they were and are bad.  No other reason.

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Nobody's arguing the Orioles are good.

However, they do have the most difficult schedule in baseball.  A large part of that is their division.

These are facts.  Why you and SG get so upset when they're mentioned, and act as if acknowledging reality is some moral failing, I'll never understand.

Right now they have the third hardest remaining schedule, Texas has the fourth.

Ain't much of a difference.

http://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

Easiest way to have a high strength of schedule is to be so bad that the other teams in your division pick up extra wins from facing you.

If you put the O's in any division in MLB they are going to be a bad team.  Are things generally a bit harder in the AL East most years?  Yes.

It doesn't turn a good team into a bad one.

[Pickles]

51 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Because people use it as a crutch and act as if that’s why we suck.

Yes it’s a challenging schedule but they have navigated it just fine in the past.  They are (or were) a very poorly run organization with arguably the worst owner in sports.

Thsts why they were and are bad.  No other reason.

Except I don't see anybody doing that.  Could you point them out to me?  I'll disagree with them.

But I'll say to you what I'm about to say to Corn:

Look at the title of the thread.  Yes, we COULD be a little more competitive, and we likely would be in any other division in baseball.

That is not in contradiction with anything you posed.

[Pickles]

50 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right now they have the third hardest remaining schedule, Texas has the fourth.

Ain't much of a difference.

http://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remaining_schedule_strength

Easiest way to have a high strength of schedule is to be so bad that the other teams in your division pick up extra wins from facing you.

If you put the O's in any division in MLB they are going to be a bad team.  Are things generally a bit harder in the AL East most years?  Yes.

It doesn't turn a good team into a bad one.

Winning % isn't the best way to calculate SOS.  For the exact reasons you mention.

I'll repeat from above and likewise point out that it in no way contradicts anything you wrote:

The title of the thread suggests we should be more competitive.  I think pointing out we would be in any other environment in baseball is pretty germane.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Except I don't see anybody doing that.  Could you point them out to me?  I'll disagree with them.

But I'll say to you what I'm about to say to Corn:

Look at the title of the thread.  Yes, we COULD be a little more competitive, and we likely would be in any other division in baseball.

That is not in contradiction with anything you posed.

It’s been a consistent mantra for years.  It just gets old and annoying.  It’s a lazy cop out for the organization being a laughing stock and poorly run for years. 
 

And I disagree with you.  They are 8-19 vs the central.  They have played the west to a record of 3 games under 500 but I think playing Houston a lot more would result in a bunch of losses and they usually struggle on WC trips.
 

This team isn’t talented and it’s not that good.  They struggle to win games against anyone. 

[OriolesMagic83]

What if the O's were in the NL West.  How would they do facing the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres regularly?  Switch divisions with the Diamondbacks.

[Pickles]

6 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

What if the O's were in the NL West.  How would they do facing the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres regularly?  Switch divisions with the Diamondbacks.

That might be the one division that is better than the AL East.  Of course, then instead of playing Toronto (good and getting better) you'd get to play Colorado (Shit and getting worse.)

In no environment in MLB would the Orioles be good.

In almost any other environment in baseball, they would be better.

It isn't a difficult thing to grasp; and it isn't worth getting upset over acknowledging.

And the only people who do seem to take it personal, are those who claim, ironically, we should be better now.

[Pickles]

And I'll add that I've been thinking about starting a thread about it, because nobody is wrong here: We should be better.  We didn't need to be this bad.

You want to know another reason this rebuild is taking this long?  Because to instigate it we cut a lot of white meat.'

Trading Gausman and Schoop as essentially salary dumps in the first wave of trades was borderline negligence.

There's a ton of reasons we stink.  Our division is not a primary one.  But they better acknowledge it if they're going to deal with it.  And I do believe, and I think it is pretty demonstrable based on evidence, that it is definitely an additional challenge to what is already a very challenging project.

[OriolesMagic83]

10 minutes ago, Pickles said:

That might be the one division that is better than the AL East.  Of course, then instead of playing Toronto (good and getting better) you'd get to play Colorado (Shit and getting worse.)

In no environment in MLB would the Orioles be good.

In almost any other environment in baseball, they would be better.

It isn't a difficult thing to grasp; and it isn't worth getting upset over acknowledging.

And the only people who do seem to take it personal, are those who claim, ironically, we should be better now.

The O's might win 60 games instead of 58 games, or some similar number.  They would still stink.  I think the AL East is much more of an obstacle if/when the O's are good.  AL Central/NL Central, 90 wins often wins the division.  In the AL East, 90 wins is often good for 3rd. 

[Pickles]

8 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

The O's might win 60 games instead of 58 games, or some similar number.  They would still stink.  I think the AL East is much more of an obstacle if/when the O's are good.  AL Central/NL Central, 90 wins often wins the division.  In the AL East, 90 wins is often good for 3rd. 

Agreed.  I don't know the exact number but 63 feels better to me than 58, which is what we're talking about.  "A little more competitive."

[gold21030]

On 7/14/2021 at 5:10 PM, Frobby said:

I wish I was optimistic.   Take away April and we’ve played .254 ball since then.  We actually got decent pitching in April, and it wasn’t just Means.   But I don’t see April-level pitching returning as the season progresses, even if Means returns and performs well (which isn’t a certainty).   The pitching staff stinks and the overused bullpen will probably get worse as the season goes on.  

The best point you make is that the second half schedule is a lot easier.   FWIW, Fangraphs currently projects us to finish 58-104, meaning 30-43 (.411) the rest of the way.   That would certainly be better than we’re doing now.   
 

I'm not overly optimistic about this team either, but most of that bad winning percentage really comes from just being god awful in May.