Keith Law on the Orioles draft

[forphase1]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

So can we say now that the O's are not going to spend their draft allotment?

No we can't say that.   There are still 18 of the 20 draftees left to sign, and none of us here know the numbers yet.   We have at least 3 possible overslot guys (high school kids,  college sophomore and the juco player) that have been labeled as possibly overslot guys, and with college eligibility rules the way they are right now,  I don't know if anyone else will push for a bit more money in order to sign.   In the end I expect the O's to have spent the majority of their allotment.  Like last year I don't expect every dime to be spent, but certainly a very high percentage of it should be. 

[LookinUp]

28 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

In the end I expect the O's to have spent the majority of their allotment.  Like last year I don't expect every dime to be spent, but certainly a very high percentage of it should be. 

I'm reserving judgment too, but there's a huge difference between the two bolded terms.

I do agree though that there could be a 3-5 over slot guys in this group, whether people on this board think they should be or not. As I've pointed out elsewhere, even the college seniors could have put out numbers before the draft indicating that they plan to go back to school, but we agreed to pay. 

It's a hugely weird year, so I'm just waiting. But if we are significantly under our allotment in the end, I too will be angry.

[Frobby]

56 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Wow he must be good to get 1 million over slot in the last round of the draft.... not going to happen

O's save 1 million dollars on the draft, now how much can they save in international pool??

God I hope they are close to selling this team

There will be plenty of time for criticism on this front when we hear how much they actually spent.   I’ve heard a few of their guys will be overslot, but we’ll see.   For right now I’m more concerned about the overall strategy of eschewing pitchers and high school players to such an extreme degree.   

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think we can all wait a couple of weeks and see how much they actually spend.

I've got the pitchfork ready and the barrel of tar out.  You got feathers?

Are you going to go ape**** again if they sign all of their draft picks but leave, like, 100k on the table?

[Aglets]

10 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you going to go ape**** again if they sign all of their draft picks but leave, like, 100k on the table?

Has to be within $435,689.50  of the max for me.  Anything more is completely unacceptable.

[forphase1]

27 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I'm reserving judgment too, but there's a huge difference between the two bolded terms.

 

You are right, I should have worded that a bit differently, as majority can just be 51%.    Last year they spent approximately 13.6M of the 13.8M allotted to them, or roughly 98.6%.  I don't expect them to spend 100%, as if you can get the guys you want a bit cheaper, that's just good negotiations.  But I do want to see at least mid to high 90s percentage wise spent.  They had roughly 11.8M allotted, so at least 11.2M (95% of allotment) should be used.  Less than that then it looks less like good negotiations in your benefit versus actually being cheap, and maybe passing up greater talent due to money concerns.   The draft is where they SHOULD be spending money, and if they don't then I agree it's troubling.  But I think it's too early to judge with just 2 signings so far.  JMO.

[LTO's]

Does anyone know the average pool amount left unspent? I find it extremely unlikely that every team spends up to their limit. Seems like teams have a general idea of what a player will cost before the draft, budget that amount and then try to get the player to take as little as possible. 

[webbrick2010]

22 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you going to go ape**** again if they sign all of their draft picks but leave, like, 100k on the table?

Are you going to be okay with them leaving 1M on the table?

[webbrick2010]

So far they have signed two players and saved 1.39 Million.

They will have to some really bad negotiating to spend even 90% of their allotment.

[forphase1]

3 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Does anyone know the average pool amount left unspent? I find it extremely unlikely that every team spends up to their limit. Seems like teams have a general idea of what a player will cost before the draft, budget that amount and then try to get the player to take as little as possible. 

Good question.  Just looking at our division from the draft in 2020 (yes I know it was a weird draft but the numbers were easy to find)

Yankees - 3.52M allotted,  3.687M spent

Jays - 9.7M allotted, 10.2M spent

Rays - 7.474M allotted, 7.474 spent

Red Sox - 5.129M allotted, 5.25M spent

In our division every other team spent their full allotment, and all but 1 exceeded that allotment.  We were the only team in our division to NOT spend it all.  A quick glance does show that the Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Indians, Brewers and possibly others did NOT spend their total allotment.  

[webbrick2010]

I gotta say it looks like everyone is under spending their allotment

Me thinks no one has any confidence in their Covid era talent assessments

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

So far they have signed two players and saved 1.39 Million.

They will have to some really bad negotiating to spend even 90% of their allotment.

Maybe.  Or maybe each of the possible overslot guys need an extra 400k to sign, which eats up most of the known savings at this point.  We gave Mayo 1.2M over slot and Baumler 1.08M over slot.  I don't think any of the guys we picked this year are worth that much over slot, but 400k is possible.  1.39M really isn't that much money that it can't be easily eaten up among the 3 possible overslot guys.  

[forphase1]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

I gotta say it looks like everyone is under spending their allotment

Me thinks no one has any confidence in their Covid era talent assessments

That's a very good point.  I wonder if they are also being cautious with Covid era revenue and the new CBA coming up.  I've not looked to see what other teams are spending in this draft yet, but it wouldn't surprise me that a combination of evaluation uncertainty, market uncertainty and labor issues has many teams watching nickels and dimes closer than usual. 

[Moose Milligan]

19 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Are you going to be okay with them leaving 1M on the table?

If they sign all 20 players, I don't care what they leave on the table.

[Can_of_corn]

42 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Are you going to go ape**** again if they sign all of their draft picks but leave, like, 100k on the table?

Wait and see.