I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

[JR Oriole]

If I was a Giants fan, I would have looked at my current roster on April 1 and the division we live in and figured we were several years from competing.  There was no reason to believe they would be .500, let alone leading their division.    And yet they have the best record in baseball through 100 games.  Sometimes, these seasons come out of nowhere.  

I also don't think you need a full team of great players to compete and win.  You need a few really good players who are your anchors, some overachievement by role players, some breaks, injury luck, and some big performances in critical moments that can turn losses into wins.  So it may feel like we are 4-5 years away, but a 2012 Orioles like season can come out of nowhere.  

[vab]

The Orioles are definitely taking the long road here. That 2012 team was built on a few prospects who developed but mostly trades, free agents and a couple of shrewd pick-ups here and there. What the club is doing now is trying to develop a talent pipeline through the farm system. That takes much longer but it will make them a perennial or nearly-perennial contender if they can pull it off (see Tampa, Oakland). The 2012 method was good for five years but look where it left us. 

[LTO's]

19 minutes ago, vab said:

The Orioles are definitely taking the long road here. That 2012 team was built on a few prospects who developed but mostly trades, free agents and a couple of shrewd pick-ups here and there. What the club is doing now is trying to develop a talent pipeline through the farm system. That takes much longer but it will make them a perennial or nearly-perennial contender if they can pull it off (see Tampa, Oakland). The 2012 method was good for five years but look where it left us. 

I'd like to see them more modeled after the Cardinals which Elias has mentioned in the past. I don't think they'll operate with that payroll year in year out, but I think it will be higher than Oakland and Tampa's. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'd like to see them more modeled after the Cardinals which Elias has mentioned in the past. I don't think they'll operate with that payroll year in year out, but I think it will be higher than Oakland and Tampa's. 

If only Cardinals owner Bill DeWitt Jr. was the majority stakeholder instead of a minority partner when the Orioles were sold to Angelos in 1993. 

[gold21030]

59 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well isn't that kind of the Op's point?

We don't have a core or depth.

Bringing up some top prospects- if they're even successful- might give us a core, but that won't make us a good team.

Sure absolutely. I think I meant more that a team like Washington has three elite level players and nothing else.

The Orioles don't have either right now, but they've got a ton of prospects who won't be stars, but can be the important depth.

It also depends on which players outside the organization they target. It could take a few years, but it doesn't have to if they do things right.

[Sports Guy]

As long as they are willing to be in the 100-150 range, that’s fine.  They don’t have to spend more than that.

[John Gibson]

53 minutes ago, LTO's said:

I'd like to see them more modeled after the Cardinals which Elias has mentioned in the past. I don't think they'll operate with that payroll year in year out, but I think it will be higher than Oakland and Tampa's. 

My expectations is the approach will be like Houston.  They didn't spend any money at all until the young talent developed into a ~70win team and then they got somewhat aggressive with spending but never exorbitant and have been competitive since.

[foxfield]

10 hours ago, Explosivo said:

Again, we have all the answers to the holes in our mlb club. Iron sharpens iron. Follow the boys at the Verge to get a taste of milb coverage. The Orioles are going to be special in two years and will remain special for the next five years after. This is going to be one of the best windows of opportunity we have ever had. The pitching is there waiting for their call ups. The infield answers are there waiting for their call ups. The catcher is there waiting for his call up. We are going to look back at this decade as one of Orioles dominance. You’ve just got to look at the talent we have coming up and really look at the top tier talent we already have on the team.

I'll have a glass of whatever he is having.

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Got some examples of folks considered poor middle infielders that got coached up into average or better middle infielders? 

Well, I don't know about examples, but there was this guy in High School a few years back that was scouted as a pitcher, who also played SS.  I attach his scouting report.  It says and I quote:  "Plays SS but a lack of fluid mobility limits prospects." Then goes on to say that his father's influence rates taking a chance.  Some kid named Ripken.  You can check him out at Cooperstown, turns out you can teach em up to play the field, if they have some tools.  Some even turn out better than average. 

https://deadspin.com/very-cool-cal-ripken-jr-s-high-school-scouting-report-1493797941

[Frobby]

It’s not all about the Astros, but here’s a 10-year history of the Luhnow/Click regime

2012 55 wins, $38 mm payroll

2013 51/$15 mm

2014 70/$45 mm

2015 86/$93 mm

2016 84/$89 mm

2017 101/$158 mm

2018 103/$173 mm

2019 107/$166 mm

2020 78/$217 mm (wins projected based on 60 game results)

2021 99/$191 mm (wins projected based on record through 103 games)

The O’s so far under Elias:

2019 54 wins, $83 mm payroll

2020 68/$52 mm (wins projected based on 60 game results)

2021 57/$42 mm (wins projected based on record through 100 games)

As I see things, we’re a year behind the Astros’ timetable, due to the pandemic disruption and other factors.   We weren’t able to trim payroll as quickly as Houston did, due to existing contractual commitments.   I think it is therefore possible that we’ll wait one more year before payroll starts to rise again, but I tend to doubt it.  I think we make a couple of mid-range signings and see some modest payroll increase and hopefully a decent jump in the win total next year.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not all about the Astros, but here’s a 10-year history of the Luhnow/Click regime

2012 55 wins, $38 mm payroll

2013 51/$15 mm

2014 70/$45 mm

2015 86/$93 mm

2016 84/$89 mm

2017 101/$158 mm

2018 103/$173 mm

2019 107/$166 mm

2020 78/$217 mm (wins projected based on 60 game results)

2021 99/$191 mm (wins projected based on record through 103 games)

The O’s so far under Elias:

2019 54 wins, $83 mm payroll

2020 68/$52 mm (wins projected based on 60 game results)

2021 57/$42 mm (wins projected based on record through 100 games)

As I see things, we’re a year behind the Astros’ timetable, due to the pandemic disruption and other factors.   We weren’t able to trim payroll as quickly as Houston did, due to existing contractual commitments.   I think it is therefore possible that we’ll wait one more year before payroll starts to rise again, but I tend to doubt it.  I think we make a couple of mid-range signings and see some modest payroll increase and hopefully a decent jump in the win total next year.

They extended Altuve before the 2014 season.  Would be nice to see the O's pick a young player and do something similar.

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They extended Altuve before the 2014 season.  Would be nice to see the O's pick a young player and do something similar.

Is there anybody worthy?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Is there anybody worthy?

Depends on the terms.

It could be someone currently in the minors. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

They extended Altuve before the 2014 season.  Would be nice to see the O's pick a young player and do something similar.

Their timing on Altuve was exquisite.   He was a .700 OPS career hitter worth 3.2 rWAR over 2.3 seasons when they signed him very cheaply.   Then he exploded.   

Of course you don’t know who’s going to blow up in that way in advance.   To me the most likely candidates are Hays or Mountcastle.  Neither is setting the world on fire, but they are holding their own offensively.  I wouldn’t be shocked if either of them made a big step forward next year.   But Hays is injury prone and Mountcastle is limited defensively.   So is it worth it to pull the trigger?

The other options are Mullins, Means or one of the top minor leaguers.  I doubt the first two would come that cheaply.   I’d do a Rutschman deal, but it probably wouldn’t be cheap either.  

[survivedc]

2 hours ago, vab said:

The Orioles are definitely taking the long road here. That 2012 team was built on a few prospects who developed but mostly trades, free agents and a couple of shrewd pick-ups here and there. What the club is doing now is trying to develop a talent pipeline through the farm system. That takes much longer but it will make them a perennial or nearly-perennial contender if they can pull it off (see Tampa, Oakland). The 2012 method was good for five years but look where it left us. 

The “2012 method” is very similar to what is being used now, good drafting and rebuilding type trades. It was just abandoned once success was tasted and the wrong guys were let go/retained.

[Pickles]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Depends on the terms.

It could be someone currently in the minors. 

They're not going to sign anybody in the minors to any kind of extension, so that's a non-starter.

The only people I see on the team worthy of an extension are Mullins- and I am in no hurry to give him one- Means- ditto- and Mancini- who I think is best traded.

Even if you could extend Mancini on a team friendly deal- say 4/40- would you?  I don't think I would.