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I'm starting to think we are 4-5 years away from competing for real

kidrock

By kidrock
in Orioles Talk

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Spy Fox
Spy Fox

They do care— Vlad didn’t debut til April 26. Wander Franco didn’t debut til June 22. 

NelsonCruuuuuz
NelsonCruuuuuz

The timeframe is simple: when Peter passes and the team is sold to new local ownership. There you go. That’s the truth. Nothing else matters. The team will be minimal payroll until then. 

Pickles
Pickles

I think another thing worth pointing out is that rebuilds almost never go in linear fashion.  There seems to be a belief that we'll win 70 game and then 80 and then 90 and we'll be right in contention

7Mo Major Leaguer

7Mo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pickles said:

What kind of extension do you think they should look to sign D.L. Hall for?

Not one clue. I don't have the information available to make smart decisions about that. 

But even though I'm not the one to make those decisions, I do believe the O's should be considering possibilities and I think they will. May not work out, but I hope they're at least checking.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Not one clue. I don't have the information available to make smart decisions about that. 

But even though I'm not the one to make those decisions, I do believe the O's should be considering possibilities and I think they will. May not work out, but I hope they're at least checking.

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I mean his career BABIP is 319.

The various projections on Fangraphs have him at 294-313.

So maybe less than 362?

His xBA is .282.   That’s not just based on normalizing BABIP, but based on quality of contact.   

His xwOBA is .351 compared to wOBA of .394.

I do think that speed probably accounts for a bit of the difference, but certainly not all of it.   

Still, if you told me Mullins would have a .351 wOBA for the next four years, I’d sign for it in blood.   Even taking any luck away, he’s been very good.   

 

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7Mo Major Leaguer

7Mo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pickles said:

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

How on earth do you get "I want to criticize them" out of this?

The only point to the whole discussion was that it wasn't unreasonable to discuss an extension with someone in the minor leagues.

You've twisted about as far as possible to create an argument out of this. You go have fun with it. 

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
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2 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

How on earth do you get "I want to criticize them" out of this?

The only point to the whole discussion was that it wasn't unreasonable to discuss an extension with someone in the minor leagues.

You've twisted about as far as possible to create an argument out of this. You go have fun with it. 

How could I be arguing with you when you refuse to take a position?  LOL.

Your point seems to be they should "consider" these extensions.  Again, that is so nebulous as to mean nothing.

How do you know they haven't?

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His xBA is .282.   That’s not just based on normalizing BABIP, but based on quality of contact.   

His xwOBA is .351 compared to wOBA of .394.

I do think that speed probably accounts for a bit of the difference, but certainly not all of it.   

Still, if you told me Mullins would have a .351 wOBA for the next four years, I’d sign for it in blood.   Even taking any luck away, he’s been very good.   

 

Yeah, I don't expect Mullins to hit .320 every year from here on out.  But that isn't going to be largely a product of his BABIP.

If he's hitting .280, he's still an all-star.

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7Mo Major Leaguer

7Mo

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pickles said:

How could I be arguing with you when you refuse to take a position?  LOL.

Your point seems to be they should "consider" these extensions.  Again, that is so nebulous as to mean nothing.

How do you know they haven't?

I don't. You started this by saying they never would.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

I don't. You started this by saying they never would.

Well, I gave reasons for it.  It's been done.  Including by this FO.  It hasn't worked out yet.  It's risky.  It doesn't seem to do the club much in terms of saving money.

I believe they have considered it, and have rejected it, because it doesn't make sense- which is exactly why nobody else does it either.

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SteveA Hangout Grand Counsel

SteveA

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Well you seem to acknowledge that the O's will do their due diligence at the least, and then you want to criticize them just in case they're not doing their doing the diligence?

Seems odd.

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

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Pickles Hangout Grand Counsel

Pickles

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, SteveA said:

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

I'm sorry to hear about it.  Regardless, it isn't a positive development for him.

My point of course isn't specifically about him.  However, with the CBA such as it is, and, maybe even more importantly, with how it remains unresolved going forward, it makes little sense to sign MiLers to extensions.

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crowmst3k! All-Star

crowmst3k!

Posted
Posted
On 7/30/2021 at 9:22 PM, Pickles said:

BTW, Hall has a stress fracture in his throwing elbow.  Perhaps it's things like this that suppress contract extensions for MiL prospects?

Especially for pitchers.  

A position player would be way less of a risk. Pitchers break all the time. 

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ChosenOne21 Major Leaguer Rising Star

ChosenOne21

Posted
Posted
On 7/30/2021 at 10:12 PM, SteveA said:

I think they have walked that back a bit and called it a "stress reaction".  Message board doctors please let us know the difference.

But I think his minor league season is kaput.  Fall ball might not be out of the picture.

A stress reaction is sort of the precursor to a stress fracture. Still needs to be shut down to let it heal, but it's not as bad as if he broke the bone

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

Posted
Posted
On 7/30/2021 at 8:51 PM, Can_of_corn said:

He's got a 362 BABIP.

If he's for real he's soon to be out of the probable price range of the team.

If you could get a team to pay you have to look at it.

 

 

If that's true, the O's probably shouldn't be in the professional baseball business.  

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