I’m about ready to give up on DJ Stewart

[Pickles]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Has Tyler Wade been with the Yanks for five years OPSing .584?  Yep.

Did Jace Peterson get 1220 PAs for the Braves?  Yep.

Has Tyler Austin gotten as many MLB PAs as Stewart despite being a DH/1B with a .740 OPS?  Yep, mostly with the Yanks and Giants.

Did Rob Refsnyder get three years on the Yanks roster to stumble about the OF and OPS .643.  Yep?

There's no such thing as an organization that never gives chances to players that don't work out.

Hold on, I know you're the big sabermetrician, but it make take me a second to wrap my mind around this:

Are you telling me, that sometimes players come up from the minor leagues and don't establish themselves as major league players?

Are you telling me that happens?

That's truly mind-blowing.

I'm not really sure how it reflects on my commentary regarding Stewart, but that is fascinating information.

[Tony-OH]

15 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

 

That's hyperbole, there are very few players that I have been actively negative on, and hate is a word I never use, and an emotion I certainly don't have to something as unimportant as sports.

And my negativity concerning DJ Stewart was against management and picking players that don't have projectable ML tools.

I was/am against the Rutschman signing not because I don't want him to succeed or dislike him as a person/player but because I think it was a waste of a 1-1 to pick for a  college catcher, when the pick could have been used on a potential super star like a Bobby Witt JR, of CJ Abrams.

Sorry if my opinions are not welcome on OH.

I don't post often I guess I will  stop altogether, as just about everyone loves to make personal attacks rather than discuss facts.

I have never been baited into a personal attack on any other poster.

You gotta lighten up and learn to take a joke. 

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

Hold on, I know you're the big sabermetrician, but it make take me a second to wrap my mind around this:

Are you telling me, that sometimes players come up from the minor leagues and don't establish themselves as major league players?

Are you telling me that happens?

That's truly mind-blowing.

I'm not really sure how it reflects on my commentary regarding Stewart, but that is fascinating information.

You seem awfully sure that Stewart was predestined to fail and should never have been given an opportunity.  I'm guessing every fanbase has their own fortune tellers who say the same thing about their Stewarts.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

What's harsh about what I said? It was a very factual stat based assessment of Stewart's defense along with my assessment that I don't think he will still be on the 40-man when it's set this off season. 

As for Traber, Stewart was a similar overall player besides he fact that Traber was a first baseman mostly and Stewart is an outfielder. Traber obviously didn't K as much do to the difference in the game, but they both ended up a low batting average, occasional pop with no defensive value players.

I was just saying me comparing Stewart to Traber might be a little negative for Stewart.  Traber did have that one hot streak, but was fairly awful overall, especially in '89.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I was just saying me comparing Stewart to Traber might be a little negative for Stewart.  Traber did have that one hot streak, but was fairly awful overall, especially in '89.

Oh, you were talking about comparing him to Traber. Got it. DJ will always have that 9-game stretch where he was as good as anyone in the game. Take that stretch away and his stats at the major league level look pretty darn bad.

 

[Pickles]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You seem awfully sure that Stewart was predestined to fail and should never have been given an opportunity.  I'm guessing every fanbase has their own fortune tellers who say the same thing about their Stewarts.

No, I don't like the profile and never have. But I don't think his failures were predestined.  There's a universe where Stewart has a ML career.

The conversation was whether Stewart was a "successful" draft pick or a "bust."  It was suggested that because Stewart has almost 600 ML PAs he outperformed the average draft selection taken at his slot.

I simply was pointing out that might not be the best way to make that determination, as Stewart has never taken a PA for a team that was trying to, you know, win the game.  And in a different organization, you know, one trying to win games, he certainly would not have gotten as long a leash as he has here.

How many times do you think the Yankees would have watched him concuss himself in the outfield before they pulled the plug?

[interloper]

27 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Oh, you were talking about comparing him to Traber. Got it. DJ will always have that 9-game stretch where he was as good as anyone in the game. Take that stretch away and his stats at the major league level look pretty darn bad.

 

The league just figured out they can pump fastballs by him. Sure he runs into a few here and there, but... 

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

He did it last year.  Whether he can sustain it over 300-400 at bats is certainly up for debate though.  It would basically mean walks, power and nothing else.  
 

I don't think he could sustain that for a full season and I certainly don't think anyone could sustain that year after year.  Sure, if he, or anyone else, could do that consistently from year to year, they'd have a decent career.  I just don't see it happening.

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think he could sustain that for a full season and I certainly don't think anyone could sustain that year after year.  Sure, if he, or anyone else, could do that consistently from year to year, they'd have a decent career.  I just don't see it happening.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rob-deer/1003137/stats?position=OF

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I don't think he could sustain that for a full season and I certainly don't think anyone could sustain that year after year.  Sure, if he, or anyone else, could do that consistently from year to year, they'd have a decent career.  I just don't see it happening.

Slightly different era, but even a guy like Adam Dunn hit .250+ till he was 30.

[NCRaven]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/rob-deer/1003137/stats?position=OF

I'm sure there are exceptions to every rule, especially 40 year old exceptions.  You are the expert at finding them and acting as if they were plentiful.  But Deer's career ended in 1993 when league-wide batting averages were higher and strikeout totals were lower.  I doubt he could do it in today's pitching environment.

Dunn is a better example, because he's more recent.  But, again, it's rare.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

No, I don't like the profile and never have. But I don't think his failures were predestined.  There's a universe where Stewart has a ML career.

The conversation was whether Stewart was a "successful" draft pick or a "bust."  It was suggested that because Stewart has almost 600 ML PAs he outperformed the average draft selection taken at his slot.

I simply was pointing out that might not be the best way to make that determination, as Stewart has never taken a PA for a team that was trying to, you know, win the game.  And in a different organization, you know, one trying to win games, he certainly would not have gotten as long a leash as he has here.

How many times do you think the Yankees would have watched him concuss himself in the outfield before they pulled the plug?

It's hard to say, since they have the resources to watch that for three weeks, then go trade a bag of balls for an average outfielder with 5/105 left on his deal to fill the hole because the offering team just wants to be out from under the contract. Of course the team with $650M in average revenues and a $200M payroll has a long list of options the Orioles or the Pirates or the Marlins don't.

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I'm sure there are exceptions to every rule, especially 40 year old exceptions.  You are the expert at finding them and acting as if they were plentiful.  But Deer's career ended in 1993 when league-wide batting averages were higher and strikeout totals were lower.  I doubt he could do it in today's pitching environment.

Dunn is a better example, because he's more recent.  But, again, it's rare.

When did I act as if it were plentiful?  When did I say I’m all for giving him chance after chance?  
 

All in saying is that it can be done but I agree it would be hard.  If he just hits righties, maybe that would help?

He has a career 739 OPS vs righties and just over 600 vs lefties.  Ironically, the BA is much better vs lefties though.

 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Pickles said:

 

How many times do you think the Yankees would have watched him concuss himself in the outfield before they pulled the plug?

This made me chuckle. 

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

I'm sure there are exceptions to every rule, especially 40 year old exceptions.  You are the expert at finding them and acting as if they were plentiful.  But Deer's career ended in 1993 when league-wide batting averages were higher and strikeout totals were lower.  I doubt he could do it in today's pitching environment.

Dunn is a better example, because he's more recent.  But, again, it's rare.

I also don’t think Stewart has the raw power of a guy like Dunn or Deer.   He racked up a very high ISO in small samples in 2018 and 2020, but his overall ISO of .176 is very consistent with the .177 in a larger minor league sample.