(Edit: Orioles get 1st pick after walkoff homer by Diamondbacks)

[Sports Guy]

Only hope I see is a tie and we win the tiebreaker.  We get swept by Tor and they win 2 of 3 from Colorado.  
 

I can’t see them sweeping any team.  
 

We may get swept, although we do have Means going in this series and he has pitched well but im Not sure I buy that they win 2 games.  At least they aren’t playing a good team, so that’s helpful.

[Sports Guy]

56 minutes ago, vab said:

Yeah, looks like it's over. Let's just hope it's not another Mark Teixiera, Chris Smith situation., Good God 107 losses and we still can't get the 1st pick. 

I don’t feel like going back and doing the research but I wonder what the worst record ever is for the team getting the #2 pick. (Common draft era, 162 games)

Can’t be many, if any teams, that win 55 or less games and not get the first pick.

In 2019, we finished with 54 wins and didn’t get the first pick because of Detroit.  But most years, it’s hard to find teams that don’t win at least 60 games.  
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

I don’t feel like going back and doing the research but I wonder what the worst record ever is for the team getting the #2 pick. (Common draft era, 162 games)

Can’t be many, if any teams, that win 55 or less games and not get the first pick.

In 2019, we finished with 54 wins and didn’t get the first pick because of Detroit.  But most years, it’s hard to find teams that don’t win at least 60 games.  
 

 

It's going to be more prevalent now that teams have convinced fans this is the best way to build a team.

[O's84]

I knew even when the D-Backs went up 3-0 in the first, and Giants starter Kazmir had to exit with an injury after pitching just a 1/3rd of an inning that the D-Backs would still lose.  We all knew it.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's going to be more prevalent now that teams have convinced fans this is the best way to build a team.

I don’t think teams do this because they’re trying to fool their fans that this is the best way to build a team.   They do it because in some situations it IS the best way to build a team.  And one of those situations is when you’re team has just won 47 games and has very little talent in its organization.   

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think teams do this because they’re trying to fool their fans that this is the best way to build a team.   They do it because in some situations it IS the best way to build a team.  And one of those situations is when you’re team has just won 47 games and has very little talent in its organization.   

And it just so happens to greatly lower payroll at the same time.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think teams do this because they’re trying to fool their fans that this is the best way to build a team.   They do it because in some situations it IS the best way to build a team.  And one of those situations is when you’re team has just won 47 games and has very little talent in its organization.   

The best way?

I don't know.

It's worked out great for the Astros.

The Cubs won a title but they haven't been able to have consistent success.

Phillies haven't done a lot despite adding a lot of payroll to their core.

The 76's, the first team to really go out and famously tank, haven't made a conference finals and are having issues.

I'm not sold that this way is particularly more successful than other techniques.

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The best way?

I don't know.

It's worked out great for the Astros.

The Cubs won a title but they haven't been able to have consistent success.

Phillies haven't done a lot despite adding a lot of payroll to their core.

The 76's, the first team to really go out and famously tank, haven't made a conference finals and are having issues.

I'm not sold that this way is particularly more successful than other techniques.

Yeah, I probably overstated things there. But I keep coming back to he fact that we only won 47 games in 2018 when management certainly was trying to win going into that season.   This isn’t a situation where a team started off as a 65-win team and then got worse from there by going into rebuild mode.    This team was awful already.   

And yes, payroll is lower, but attendance is also much lower.   I don’t think management/ownership is trying to fool the fans; if they are, it isn’t working.  Here’s our attendance the last 5 years (omitting 2020):

2016: 2.172 mm

2017: 2.028 mm

2018: 1.564 mm

2019: 1.307 mm

2021: 793 k

Some of this year’s drop was undoubtedly April/May Covid restrictions and general Covid reluctance, but it’s pretty clear that putting a 50-win team on the field hurts revenue.   And, you run the risk that some of those fans won’t come back when the team improves.   So, I don’t think teams go into “strip-down mode” lightly.   They do it when they think it’s the best way to get back to being competitive, and that there aren’t really any other very good alternatives.  

[NCRaven]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Bye Bye to the #1 pick. Are we finally at the place where Elias will select a Pitcher with our 1:2 pick

Assuming we're picking 1:2, given everything I've read about how this draft is shaping up, I'd expect another college bat with that pick.  Possibly a pitcher with our Competitive Balance pick at the end of the first round.  Assuming that Green goes 1:1 and that he's all everyone has been saying.

[scOtt]

All but mathematically over. 2 "behind" with 3 to play. AZ has to sweep their last series and we have to lose all three of our games. Oh well... 1:2 is nice.

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Assuming we're picking 1:2, given everything I've read about how this draft is shaping up, I'd expect another college bat with that pick.  Possibly a pitcher with our Competitive Balance pick at the end of the first round.  Assuming that Green goes 1:1 and that he's all everyone has been saying.

“Everyone” isn’t that high on Green.   He has his advocates, but take a look on the Amateur Draft board — there is no consensus no. 1 at this point.    

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, scOtt said:

All but mathematically over. 2 "behind" with 3 to play. AZ has to sweep their last series and we have to lose all three of our games. Oh well... 1:2 is nice.

Not true, because we hold the tiebreaker.   Arizona has to win at least twice, we have to win two fewer games than they do this weekend.   

I am not expecting us to get the no. 1 pick, though, and I don’t care all that much, either.   
 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Can’t be many, if any teams, that win 55 or less games and not get the first pick.

Teams during the draft era that won less than 60 and didn't get the #1 pick:

1964 A's, 57 wins
1965 A's, 59 wins
1969 Expos, 52 wins
1972 Padres and Phils, 59 and 58 wins
1978 Blue Jays, 59 wins
1979 A's, 54 wins
1988 Braves, 54 wins
2002 Brewers/Tigers, 56 and 55 wins
2004 Royals, 58 wins
2019 Orioles, Marlins, Royals, 54, 57, 59
 

The 1939 Phillies went 45-106 and finished two games better than the Browns, obviously in the pre-draft era.  The '32 White Sox were 49-102, but finished 7.5 games ahead of the Red Sox.  The 1911 Browns were 45-107, but finished a half game ahead of the Boston Braves.  Boston was 45-108 in '09, 2.5 games ahead of the Senators. 

[sportsfan8703]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

“Everyone” isn’t that high on Green.   He has his advocates, but take a look on the Amateur Draft board — there is no consensus no. 1 at this point.    

Arizona just drafted a SS last draft, so I doubt they take another one. So the top prep SS should be available. Termarr Johnson. 
 

 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Arizona just drafted a SS last draft, so I doubt they take another one. So the top prep SS should be available. Termarr Johnson. 
 

 

More than half the guys drafted as shortstops end up playing some other position, so I don’t think the DBacks would forego a guy because he was a SS.