Is Elijah Green a once in a generation talent?

[jabba72]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

29% K rate in high school? Hopefully he'll drop that down significantly his senior year. 

I agree thats too high, would like to hear more about his hit tool grade, whenever that comes out. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

41 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

I agree thats too high, would like to hear more about his hit tool grade, whenever that comes out. 

Same, everything I read about Green intrigued me until finding out his strikeout percentage. Being a great athlete is a plus, but at the same time you still need to be a ballplayer. 

The John Kruk quote comes to mind. 

[Hazmat]

I recall reading that scouts were concerned with some swing and miss with Brady House and that he stopped selling out for power in his senior year and alleviated many of those K rate concerns.  Green will need to do the same over his senior year.

[baltfan]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

29% K rate in high school? Hopefully he'll drop that down significantly his senior year. 

Maxpreps has the K rate at 35%.  It's IMG Academy so my thought was maybe that is relatively normal because of the competition.  However, it looks like he led the team.

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/img-academy-ascenders-(bradenton,fl)/baseball-spring-21/stats.htm

For comparison sake, Bobby Witt, Jr. struck out less than 10% his senior year.  There aren't much stats for his junior year.

https://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/bobby-witt-jr/8A1T9k1KEea-8KA2nzwbTA/baseball/stats.htm

 

[baltfan]

FWIW, Baseball America has Termarr Johnson ranked ahead of him.  https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/top-2022-high-school-mlb-draft-prospects/

And he has k'd 4% of the time.  Of course, it's likely his high school comp isn't quite as good as IMG's.  

https://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/termarr-johnson/MGMnNhk3EemAzYoOhE8Jsg/baseball/stats.htm

[DocJJ]

I'll say he is a once in a generation talent in terms of power/speed/arm combination and tools.   The swing and miss bothers me a lot.   All that power and speed is useless if contact is an issue.   I saw him in person recently and he struck out twice, including the final out of the game. 

If we develops plate discipline and fixes his contact issues, I'm all in, but right now I'd take Jung, Johnson, or Lesko in that order....

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

I'll say he is a once in a generation talent in terms of power/speed/arm combination and tools.   The swing and miss bothers me a lot.   All that power and speed is useless if contact is an issue.   I saw him in person recently and he struck out twice, including the final out of the game. 

If we develops plate discipline and fixes his contact issues, I'm all in, but right now I'd take Jung, Johnson, or Lesko in that order....

Roughly equivalent to Bubba Starling when drafted?

[baltfan]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Roughly equivalent to Bubba Starling when drafted?

I know he couldn’t be drafted but Acuna seems to have these tools. 

[OriolesMagic83]

35 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I know he couldn’t be drafted but Acura seems to have these tools. 

Well if Acura has the tools, we should simply buy them online.  Maybe get a bulk order discount.

[RZNJ]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Roughly equivalent to Bubba Starling when drafted?

A good comp.   No matter how toolsy a player is, he's not worth much if he can't hit.   Starling, I think was drafted #4 overall but he had scouts drooling.   The 29% whiff ratio looks like a big red flag to me.   I don't care how good the competition is at IMG, it's not even close to professional.

Let's see what the kid does this year but that would concern me.   Of course, the O's almost gave 3M to Fabian and he had huge contact issues in college.

[Just Regular]

We still have to outkick Arizona, etc., but I do grant a silver lining in the Adley year was the entertainment value of navel gazing on everyone and not having to worry if the Tigers would take Torkelson, Martin, etc.    Though I suppose once Kjerstad became targeted Elias really didn't have to sweat that one out.

But if we get there, I am curious to learn more about IMG Academy.  I do like the simple truth in labeling in the institution's name.

Will Elijah Green's 12th grade year be something like any top NCAA quarterback's redshirt senior year?  He's met his course requirements and is taking Ballroom Dancing this academic year, and that's it, and all that good stuff.    Plenty of time to practice that there pitch discernment, swing decisions, etc.    He should at least peruse Cowser's quotes, emulate some of his practices, etc. if he wants to be 1-1!

[panick]

4 hours ago, RZNJ said:

A good comp.   No matter how toolsy a player is, he's not worth much if he can't hit.   Starling, I think was drafted #4 overall but he had scouts drooling.   The 29% whiff ratio looks like a big red flag to me.   I don't care how good the competition is at IMG, it's not even close to professional.

Let's see what the kid does this year but that would concern me.   Of course, the O's almost gave 3M to Fabian and he had huge contact issues in college.

And yet, in the thread you started about next year's rosters, you have McKenna starting for the Orioles.+

[RZNJ]

7 minutes ago, panick said:

And yet, in the thread you started about next year's rosters, you have McKenna starting for the Orioles.+

I'm not annointing McKenna anything.   I think he deserves another look at some point.   He's currently putting up some impressive numbers at Norfolk so I think he's earning another look at some point.    Kind of apples and oranges here.   Talking about giving a guy in the minors a chance in the majors and whether another amateur guy is worthy of the #1 pick.   Once in a generation talent is different than once in a generation player.

[calsmanystances]

Not sure K rates bother Elias. He drafted a corner OF at 1-2 last year who, at an older age than a H.S. Jr., had a career 129:54 K:BB rate at Arkansas. It was a great concern to some analysts. About a week before the 2020 draft, Kiley McDaniel and David Schoenfeld were discussing players and that's what worried them about Kjerstad:

https://www.secsports.com/article/29261732/2020-mlb-draft-preview-go-no-1-which-players-teams-match-best

 

Who is a highly rated prospect you would have concerns about drafting with a top-10 pick?

Schoenfield: I wouldn't touch Arkansas right fielder Heston Kjerstad. As a sophomore in 2019, he had 63 strikeouts and 21 walks -- a terrible strikeout-to-walk ratio for any college hitter, let alone one considered an elite prospect. Teams have statistical models for college hitters and I have to assume that's a huge red flag, no matter how enticing the tools. Granted, he was off to a better start in 2020 (.448, seven walks, nine K's), but that came against a relatively soft nonconference schedule. As a point of comparison, consider fellow Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who had 50 walks and 32 strikeouts as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2015.

McDaniel: I will mention Kjerstad along with Dave. It's a bit of a cheat since he's ninth in my top 10, but there's also a quality here that's a concern and is tough to correct. Kjerstad shows bat-to-ball skills, he has raw power and he's shown that he can get to power in games. He has a track record of SEC production, but it comes with strikeouts because his chase rates (swinging at pitches outside the zone) are poor. This one skill can undermine his whole offensive profile: higher strikeouts, fewer walks, in more bad counts so fewer pitches to drive for power. Kjerstad is ranked as high as he is because of his production, and the college power-hitting performer is a strong demographic, maybe the strongest in the draft, but that one characteristic of Kjerstad's offensive approach scares me.

Didn't mean to re-open old wounds, but Green looks like he has elite size, power and speed and plays a premium position (CF). IMG provides top competition. He also looks like he knows how to take a walk. Striking out a lot does not look it would be a deal breaker for Elias, especially when the other 3 top prospects look like two second basemen and a H.S. pitcher. I don't think any of us think Elias would draft the H.S. P at 1-1 (Aiken seems to have spooked him from drafting any P high in the 1st round, let alone another HS arm). I don't know if a 2B has ever been drafted 1-1. We've got about 10 more months to speculate.

https://www.mlb.com/news/10-standouts-from-last-week-s-pdp-league

The Prospect Development Pipeline (PDP) League took place July 24-31 at the USA Baseball National Training Complex in Cary, North Carolina, bringing together 96 of the best high-school players from across the country to four loaded rosters.

The process was meant to help USA Baseball choose its final roster for the 18U team scheduled to compete in the WBSC Baseball World Cup in September. Unfortunately, that event has already been postponed. But that didn’t stop some of the best Class of 2022 prospects from using their opportunities to show off the skills that could make them high picks next summer.

These were 10 standouts from this year’s PDP League:

1. Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (Fla.)
Green got things going by smoking a leadoff homer off fellow right-hander and notable 2022 prospect Ian Ritchie Jr. in his first at-bat of the week and didn’t much look back from there. The ball went an estimated 430 feet, making it the longest homer of the week. The outfielder finished 3-for-13 with the homer and a double, but was also pitched around for much of the week, taking six walks (second-most this year) and finishing with a .474 OBP. He added two steals for good measure. That blend of speed and power continues to make Green a strong candidate for No. 1 overall next summer.

[emmett16]

On 8/24/2021 at 10:55 AM, OrioleDog said:

We still have to outkick Arizona, etc., but I do grant a silver lining in the Adley year was the entertainment value of navel gazing on everyone and not having to worry if the Tigers would take Torkelson, Martin, etc.    Though I suppose once Kjerstad became targeted Elias really didn't have to sweat that one out.

But if we get there, I am curious to learn more about IMG Academy.  I do like the simple truth in labeling in the institution's name.

Will Elijah Green's 12th grade year be something like any top NCAA quarterback's redshirt senior year?  He's met his course requirements and is taking Ballroom Dancing this academic year, and that's it, and all that good stuff.    Plenty of time to practice that there pitch discernment, swing decisions, etc.    He should at least peruse Cowser's quotes, emulate some of his practices, etc. if he wants to be 1-1!

A colleague of mine's son is moving down to FL so his son can do his senior year at IMG.  If you have the means and the talent, it's probably the best "high school" to use as a platform to show off your skills.  Kids from all over the country move to Bradenton, Fl to play all the various sports they offer.  We run into them in Basketball every year.  While our team is a perennial top 10 in the nation team, IMG is is a class above.  Same in all sports.  Not really a high school, it's a sports academy where talented kids go to learn how to become professionals at an early age.