Konner Wade optioned after last night's game

[HowAboutThat]

26 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

In the case of Stewart, though, I disagree that a random guy from the farm could do as well as him.

Why? He hits lousy and doesn’t defend well. McKenna is more valuable even though he doesn’t hit well, because he can run and defend well.

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, Philip said:

Why? He hits lousy and doesn’t defend well. McKenna is more valuable even though he doesn’t hit well, because he can run and defend well.

Fangraphs has Stewart at 0.4 WAR and McKenna at 0.00.  Stewart looks silly out there sometimes, but he is a much better offensive player than McKenna. 

[Yardball85]

Just now, Yardball85 said:

Fangraphs has Stewart at 0.4 WAR and McKenna at 0.00.  Stewart looks silly out there sometimes, but he is a much better offensive player than McKenna. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/warleaders.aspx?season=2021&team=2 

[HowAboutThat]

16 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Fangraphs has Stewart at 0.4 WAR and McKenna at 0.00.  Stewart looks silly out there sometimes, but he is a much better offensive player than McKenna. 

Defense.

running.

I don’t disagree that Stewart has more offense. But as I said, McKenna is more valuable overall. And regarding WAR( BBR), McKenna is at .3 in 101 ABs and Stewart is at minus.3 in 236 ABs, and I’ve been castigated for using fWAR when BWAR is better. So according to BBR, McKenna is more valuable.

He can Run and he can Glove. 

[Tony-OH]

15 hours ago, SteveA said:

So I think they decided to try to get through 162x9 innings this year by collecting a bunch of non-prospects in Norfolk and cycling through them.   They didn't WANT anyone who was good enough that once they added him to the 40 man roster they wouldn't want to risk losing him by DFAing him.  They wanted the roster flexibility to use more than a dozen guys to eat some innings.   It was a deliberate strategy to collect guys like Watkins, Wade, Greene, Eshelman, Jannis, Abad, Diplan,  Waddell, Armstrong, Anderson, Ellis and so on and so on and so on.

 

This is 100% the strategy by Elias to get through this season without hurting or losing any pitcher of value. The only guy I like a little bit out of them is Conner Greene, and he's very inconsistent despite the good stuff. 

Watkins is here to eat as many innings as possible. The rest are just guys to eat innings as much as possible, then DFA if they need the roster room for another guy to do the same. 

The Orioles don't want to add any real prospects to the 40-man for several reasons, one of which is the agreement between the players and MLB expires on 1 December I believe. If for some reason there is a work stoppage, they probably prefer to have as many real prospects not on the 40-man so in theory they would still be able to have their minor league season next year. 

[HowAboutThat]

15 hours ago, SteveA said:

I don't think they are deliberately calling these guys up because they are trying to lose games.

But I DO think they are deliberately calling them up because they don't care if they lose them.   They can add a Wade or a Green or a Jannis to the 40 man roster, get them to pitch some innings,  then when it's time to move on from him and bring up another guy, they can DFA him to make room for the the next one.

And if they DFA him and he is claimed -- they don't care because he wasn't that great to begin with.   This happened with Evan Phillips, Connor Greene, etc.   And if they aren't claimed, they can re-assign them to Norfolk.   This happened with Jannis, Eshelman, and several others.

So I think they decided to try to get through 162x9 innings this year by collecting a bunch of non-prospects in Norfolk and cycling through them.   They didn't WANT anyone who was good enough that once they added him to the 40 man roster they wouldn't want to risk losing him by DFAing him.  They wanted the roster flexibility to use more than a dozen guys to eat some innings.   It was a deliberate strategy to collect guys like Watkins, Wade, Greene, Eshelman, Jannis, Abad, Diplan,  Waddell, Armstrong, Anderson, Ellis and so on and so on and so on.

By the way, Tampa has been doing something similar, bringing up guys and using them a bit and then DFAing them.  They have been through some former Orioles such as David Hess and Evan Phillips, as well as Ellis.

That makes complete sense and is very logical given the circumstances.I don’t think it changes the validity of what I said, which is dump a guy and bring up the next guy I actually think it verifies it, in the sense that it doesn’t matter who we bring up when we bring them up.

But that’s a logical statement and I agree with you completely.

[Frobby]

On 8/26/2021 at 10:57 AM, Philip said:

Defense.

running.

I don’t disagree that Stewart has more offense. But as I said, McKenna is more valuable overall. And regarding WAR( BBR), McKenna is at .3 in 101 ABs and Stewart is at minus.3 in 236 ABs, and I’ve been castigated for using fWAR when BWAR is better. So according to BBR, McKenna is more valuable.

He can Run and he can Glove. 

The question is, how often do you have use for each skill?    And how often does skill enter into it?

Combined, Stewart and McKenna have had 402 plate appearances.   I’d say that  skill plays a part in every at bat a player has.  

Combined, Stewart and McKenna have had 134 balls hit to their spot in the outfield.   So, 1/3 of the number of times they came to the plate.   But here’s the thing — how many of those balls were (1)  hit to a spot where no fielder was going to catch them, or (2) hit to a spot where any outfielder would catch them?   I’d guess 80%.    So, you’ve got maybe 25 plays where the skill of the OF comes into play, compared to 400 times where the skill of the batter comes into play.   

 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

The question is, how often do you have use for each skill?    And how often does skill enter into it?

Combined, Stewart and McKenna have had 402 plate appearances.   I’d say that  skill plays a part in every at bat a player has.  

Combined, Stewart and McKenna have had 134 balls hit to their spot in the outfield.   So, 1/3 of the number of times they came to the plate.   But here’s the thing — how many of those balls were (1)  hit to a spot where no fielder was going to catch them, or (2) hit to a spot where any outfielder would catch them?   I’d guess 80%.    So, you’ve got maybe 25 plays where the skill of the OF comes into play, compared to 400 times where the skill of the batter comes into play.   

 

That’s a very interesting comment, but you’re leaving out the salient point. When we need a defender, anywhere in the OF, we can reach for McKenna. When we need a pinch runner, we can reach for Mckenna. His spot is not wasted, but Stewart’s is, because he only offers offense, and he’s bad at it, even if he is better than McKenna. When you need a pinch-hitter, you want someone better than Stewart, but if you’re giving him a roster spot, you don’t have anyone better. If Stewart were a better hitter, the comparison would be closer. But he’s not.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

That’s a very interesting comment, but you’re leaving out the salient point. When we need a defender, anywhere in the OF, we can reach for McKenna. When we need a pinch runner, we can reach for Mckenna. His spot is not wasted, but Stewart’s is, because he only offers offense, and he’s bad at it, even if he is better than McKenna. When you need a pinch-hitter, you want someone better than Stewart, but if you’re giving him a roster spot, you don’t have anyone better. If Stewart were a better hitter, the comparison would be closer. But he’s not.

Stewart is an average hitter by OPS+. I wouldn't say bad although would not have a problem with "not good".

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

Stewart is an average hitter by OPS+. I wouldn't say bad although would not have a problem with "not good".

His WRC is exactly 100, so you are correct. However, in order to get that 100, we have to put up with enough other stuff that I argue that it’s not worth it. Maybe it is and that’s why he is still here. But I don’t think so. His FWAR is.5 but his bbr WAR is -.2.

if his WRC were ~130 or so sure… but as is no.

Edited August 28, 2021 by Philip

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

His WRC is exactly 100, so you are correct. However, in order to get that 100, we have to put up with enough other stuff that I argue that it’s not worth it. Maybe it is and that’s why he is still here. But I don’t think so. His FWAR is.5 but his bbr WAR is -.2.

if his WRC were ~130 or so sure… but as is no.

Very few players have a wRC+ of 130.  Less than 25% of qualifiers do.    I’d say a part time player/pinch hitter type in the 110 - 115 range is fine.  (For perspective. Mountcastle is at 113.)

I certainly agree that Stewart at 100 doesn’t really cut the mustard.   But will he end the season at 100?   We’ll see.   He’s had other years that were better, though he’s gotten more playing time this year than ever before.   

To your point about McKenna’s other skills being useful when you need them, I basically agree with you.   There are times where having a good defensive replacement or a good pinch runner is very handy in a tight game.   But not every game is tight, and some games are only tight because your backup OF started the game and had a good day.   On the days you need your backup outfielder to start the game, it’s a real handicap if your backup OF can’t hit a lick.   

I think where I’m at on this is I’d like both Stewart and McKenna to hit a bit better if they’re going to have any kind of long term role on this team.   Stewart needs to hit better than McKenna does because of McKenna’s other useful skills.    I think Stewart has to be about a 115 wRC+ guy to be useful, whereas McKenna is just fine at 100 or even a bit below.   But right now Stewart’s at 100 and McKenna is at 79.    Neither of those is really good enough even for a 4th/5th OF with the respective roles they have.   I have some reasons to hope each can improve somewhat — Stewart because he’s done a bit better in the past and still doesn’t have that much major league experience, McKenna because he’s younger and even less experienced.   McKenna’s good AAA performance this year also has me hoping he can improve offensively.   In both cases, we’ll see.