Proposal: O's spend 40m in FA

[Redskins Rick]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think that’s sort of 20/20 hindsight.   It’s not like Wieters was no. 1 because there were no other good candidates.   David Price was no. 2, and he was a 1:1 pick who’d already had a successful major league debut and pitched in the ALCS and WS.   Wieters beat him out as no. 1 because he was that highly regarded on the strength of what he did in the minors in 2008 (which exceeds anything Rutschman did this year by a significant margin IMO).    The only reason to say Rutschman is more highly regarded is because in hindsight we know Wieters wasn’t as good as the pundits thought at the time.   But at the time, opinions of Wieters were at least on the same level as for Rutschman now.

I agree with you. 

Good post

[interloper]

18 hours ago, Pickles said:

Says who?  You?  Sports Guy?

Wieters had a better arm.

Wieters had more power.

Does AR have a better hit tool?

That seems to be the hope.  That he isn't going to come up and hit 250 like Wieters did.  But what is that based on?  Certainly not their amateur/MiL performances.

Frobby said it and I'll repeat: NOTHING besides hindsight suggests that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

Ask any professional scout, if Adley was around in 2009 with Wieters who would be the #1 prospect that year. Come on guy. 

[Tony-OH]

18 hours ago, Pickles said:

Says who?  You?  Sports Guy?

Wieters had a better arm.

Wieters had more power.

Does AR have a better hit tool?

That seems to be the hope.  That he isn't going to come up and hit 250 like Wieters did.  But what is that based on?  Certainly not their amateur/MiL performances.

Frobby said it and I'll repeat: NOTHING besides hindsight suggests that AR is a better prospect than Wieters was.

Just some food for thought, the only time we have them at the same age and level in at 23-years old in AAA but we have to remember Rutschman missed an entire year because of COVID.

Wieters in 39 AAA games: .305/.387/.504/.890 with 9 2B, 5 HR and 20-30 BB-K in  163 PAs
Rutschman in 30 AAA gs:  .330/.425/.528/.953 with 8 2B, 3 HR and  17-23 BB-K in 129 PAs   

Rutschman has more raw power for me, better understanding of the zone, and is more athletic than Wieters. Wieters had a better more accurate arm and controlled the run game better. 

As a hitter, I think Rutschman is a better overall prospect and will be a middle of the order hitter. I also think we will see him DH and play some 1B (Mountcastle to DH) a good bit to keep his legs fresh. He'll probably catch in the 110-120 range. 

While I won't get into the semantics of who was the better prospect since it's really just conjecture at this point, Rutschman's athleticism, work ethic, and overall hit tool gives him the edge in my book. 

Saying all that, he'll need to prove it at the major league level which will start next season.

[Pickles]

43 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Just some food for thought, the only time we have them at the same age and level in at 23-years old in AAA but we have to remember Rutschman missed an entire year because of COVID.

Wieters in 39 AAA games: .305/.387/.504/.890 with 9 2B, 5 HR and 20-30 BB-K in  163 PAs
Rutschman in 30 AAA gs:  .330/.425/.528/.953 with 8 2B, 3 HR and  17-23 BB-K in 129 PAs   

Rutschman has more raw power for me, better understanding of the zone, and is more athletic than Wieters. Wieters had a better more accurate arm and controlled the run game better. 

As a hitter, I think Rutschman is a better overall prospect and will be a middle of the order hitter. I also think we will see him DH and play some 1B (Mountcastle to DH) a good bit to keep his legs fresh. He'll probably catch in the 110-120 range. 

While I won't get into the semantics of who was the better prospect since it's really just conjecture at this point, Rutschman's athleticism, work ethic, and overall hit tool gives him the edge in my book. 

Saying all that, he'll need to prove it at the major league level which will start next season.

This is all fair.  To say I have a preference for AR is completely defensible.  To act as if they are in different categories of prospect, or that a preference for Wieters isn't reasonable, is not.

The only thing in this post that surprises me is your contention that AR has more raw power.  I would have gave the nod there to Wieters.

They are/were very similar prospects in terms of value.  Now that doesn't mean their ML careers will mirror each other.  I think we all hope that AR has a better career than Wieters.  But as you say, that's no guarantee.  And we'll get to start seeing it next year.

[Pickles]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

Ask any professional scout, if Adley was around in 2009 with Wieters who would be the #1 prospect that year. Come on guy. 

In 2021, I have no doubt most would say Adley.

In 2009?  I bet answers would be different.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

Just some food for thought, the only time we have them at the same age and level in at 23-years old in AAA but we have to remember Rutschman missed an entire year because of COVID.

Wieters in 39 AAA games: .305/.387/.504/.890 with 9 2B, 5 HR and 20-30 BB-K in  163 PAs
Rutschman in 30 AAA gs:  .330/.425/.528/.953 with 8 2B, 3 HR and  17-23 BB-K in 129 PAs 

Those are such small samples it’s hard to make much of them.   Also the 2009 International League was less offense friendly than the 2021 Triple A East (.723 OPS vs. .745).   

Personally, I’m just going off what I recall of the hype (not just locally, but nationally) surrounding Wieters following his amazing 2008 MiL season.   One thing I remember clearly is that PECOTA was projecting him to have a .900+ OPS right out of the gate as a major leaguer.   He was very, very highly regarded.   

But it hardly matters now.   We all know Wieters didn’t live up to expectations, though he was a solid major league player.    We need Rutschman to be much more than that.    There’s reason to think he will be, but until he does it on the field, we just don’t know.   

 

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, Pickles said:

This is all fair.  To say I have a preference for AR is completely defensible.  To act as if they are in different categories of prospect, or that a preference for Wieters isn't reasonable, is not.

The only thing in this post that surprises me is your contention that AR has more raw power.  I would have gave the nod there to Wieters.

They are/were very similar prospects in terms of value.  Now that doesn't mean their ML careers will mirror each other.  I think we all hope that AR has a better career than Wieters.  But as you say, that's no guarantee.  And we'll get to start seeing it next year.

Wieters was never a huge raw power guy for me. Could he hit some nice shots, sure, but I've seen Rutschman just murder some balls. Saying that, they are probably close, but I think AR is going to bring more game power.

Again, I'm of the opinion that AR will be a better overall hitters than Wieters, but I would take a young Wieters' overall defensive game over Rutschman due to Wieters' strong and accurate arm. Rutschman throws well enough but his accuracy has been inconsistent this year at times.

It's a fun topic to discuss and I don't think anyone's opinions are invalid here. Ultimately, Rutschman will hopefully be a better overall player than Wieters ended up being at the major league level.

[Tony-OH]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Those are such small samples it’s hard to make much of them.   Also the 2009 International League was less offense friendly than the 2021 Triple A East (.723 OPS vs. .745).   

Personally, I’m just going off what I recall of the hype (not just locally, but nationally) surrounding Wieters following his amazing 2008 MiL season.   One thing I remember clearly is that PECOTA was projecting him to have a .900+ OPS right out of the gate as a major leaguer.   He was very, very highly regarded.   

But it hardly matters now.   We all know Wieters didn’t live up to expectations, though he was a solid major league player.    We need Rutschman to be much more than that.    There’s reason to think he will be, but until he does it on the field, we just don’t know.   

 

Hence why I said "Food for thought" instead of, "Here's proof."  

There is little doubt Wieters' minor league numbers did not translate to the major league level for whatever reason. We can only hope Rutschman's do.

[ChrisP]

Here I thought I missed 15 pages of the O's adding 40 mill...

[maybenxtyr]

20 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

Here I thought I missed 15 pages of the O's adding 40 mill...

No, you missed about a dozen pages about Severino vs. the field a a 50 game back up catcher.