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The AL Wild Card Race

Frobby

By Frobby
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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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Yowza was Shane Baz against the top of the Yankees lineup fun to watch.

Yankee announcer guy starting the Gerrit Cole on 3-days rest ruminations for 162.

Really my first time seeing Baz and Franco.   Somewhat like Bruce Zimmermann's Flanagan/McGregor mustache, the first look takeaway is what is up with Baz raccoon eyes (negative sunburn?), and is Wander's neck tattoo the MLB logo?

Kenny on the intro had the TEX high schooler detail new to me on Baz 6.17.1999 (Tomball, TX HS).  Grayson 11.16.1999 in Nagocdoches was about two hours away - both Houston metro, though Grayson quite far out.   I'm gonna guess those two have known about each other since about 2010.    

Dan Szymborski gave me a helpful Franco anchor point in chat, giving Barry Larkin as his guess who ZIPS will see him most similar to at the end of the line.   Today's game had the graphic that while he was tying Frobby for longest on-base streak by a 20-year-old, he had more base hits than swings and misses.   

Tampa's offense generally has the Contact to Damage thing of Buck's teams, but Wander diversifies.   They should have used him last October.

Andrew Velazquez is starting at SS for the NEW YORK YANKEES today in a Game 161 with a playoff berth at (a little) risk, so...yeah, they'll probably be in on one of the big guys.

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LA2 Hangout Grand Counsel

LA2

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Yankees have fallen into WC tie with Boston. I'd rather see the Y's in the post-season than the Red Sox--and the Mariners more than the Ys--but they have to beat the Rays tomorrow and the RSox only the Nats....

Exciting end of the season, I must say, in both the AL East plus Seattle and the NL West.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Yankees lost to the Rays, while the three teams chasing them all won.  With one game to play:

NYY 91-70

BOS 91-70

TOR 90-71

SEA 90-71

The worst NY and Boston can do is have a play-in game for a WC spot, and either/both can grab a WC spot with a win today.   For Toronto and Seattle, the best they can do is get into a play-in game by winning while NY and/or Boston loses.   Quite a fun final day upcoming.   The four way tie scenario is still alive, though it’s about a 1 in 16 shot.   

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Just Regular Hangout Grand Counsel

Just Regular

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Mitch Haniger had pretty much a Delmon Young, two outs, bases loaded, down a run in the bottom of the 8th inning 3-2 pitch, and a hit that added ~50% to win expectancy with a few outs to go and the season on the line.

Game 162 was always going to need four correct outcomes to make the 4-way tie real, but Sunday is here and the scenario is in play.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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15 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Mitch Haniger had pretty much a Delmon Young, two outs, bases loaded, down a run in the bottom of the 8th inning 3-2 pitch, and a hit that added ~50% to win expectancy with a few outs to go and the season on the line.

Game 162 was always going to need four correct outcomes to make the 4-way tie real, but Sunday is here and the scenario is in play.

As good as the Mancini story is I won't be mad if Haniger wins CBPOY.

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waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

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So I know this is the AL wildcard thread but it’s some BS that the two best teams all year have to play each other in the first round, if LA can beat a team that just won 17 in a row. 
 

I thought best record played the worst record, regardless of who’s in the wildcard 

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  • Posts

    • LookitsPuck
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By LookitsPuck · Posted

      Wait, are you saying that it's the combined H2H? I guess that does make sense. So, in that circumstance, in a 3 way tie...the Tigers get the #4 seed, the O's #5, and Royals #6?
    • LGOrioles
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By LGOrioles · Posted

      Bubic is really good. Zerpa has a pretty bad K-BB rate on the season though and gives up hard contact, so it looks like that may just be a good stretch for him. His xERA is 4.49 on the season. Lynch is solid but he’s a low K, low BB lefty. Definitely not bad, but he’s going to give up contact.  
    • Tony-OH
      Is there a 5th O's #1 Prospect?

      By Tony-OH · Posted

      Yeah, I was tracking #1 overall at some point, not next year. Unless Basallo still has rookie eligibility, I don't see anyone having a chance after next season.
    • LGOrioles
      The Achilles heel for this team is the bullpen

      By LGOrioles · Posted

      Cano has been great since June 1st even if the last week has been rough. 11.27 K/9, 3.41 ERA, 2.56 FIP, 2.64 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA. Perez’s ERA is worse than last year but his K-BB rate, FIP, and xERA are all better than last year, while his xFIP is slightly worse. I don’t feel notably different about those two this year than heading into the playoffs last year. If anything, having Cano as a 7th/8th inning option instead of the closer like last year is probably better.  The pen isn’t great but I don’t think it’s that bad. Cano, Perez, Soto, Dominguez, Coulombe, Webb, and Akin have combined for a 3.37 ERA and 9.81 K/9 this year with the O’s. They’re missing a go to back end guy (which is evident when pitching to guys like Judge and Soto) but they have a number of solid options that can strike guys out. Guys like Kimbrel, Irvin, Baker, Smith, Tate, Ramirez, and Heasley really hurt the overall bullpen ERA and they won’t be pitching in the playoffs. I’m definitely taking them over KC’s pen and I’m not sure it’s that much worse than any other AL playoff team’s besides Cleveland. 
    • SteveA
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By SteveA · Posted

      Your conclusions are 100% correct, but it has nothing to do with division records in that 3 way tie It is head to head results among the tied teams: 1) Det 10-9 (4-2 vs Balt, 6-7 vs KC) 2) Balt 3-3 (4-2 vs KC, 2-4 vs Det) 3) KC 9-10 (2-4 vs Balt, 7-6 vs Det)
    • glenn__davis
      Is there a 5th O's #1 Prospect?

      By glenn__davis · Posted

      I assumed the OP meant next year.  I don't think there's anyone on the international side who has a chance at this point to blow up that quickly.  I agree that if we're looking beyond just next year then yes, that's more likely.
    • SteveA
      Will the Orioles get home field advantage during the Wild Card?

      By SteveA · Posted

      You are wrong. If Detroit wins out and the Orioles are swept (and KC doesn't sweep), we fall to the #2 wild card due to our tiebreak loss to Detroit head to head.  Detroit is the #1 wild card in that case.  We are the #2 wild card.   If KC wins 1 or 2, they are the #3 wild card, otherwise Minnesota is the #3 wild card. If Detroit wins out AND KC wins out and we are swept, it is a 3 way tie for the 3 wild card spots.   Based on head to head among tied teams, we are 3-3 (4-2 vs KC, 2-4 vs Det), KC is 9-10 (2-4 vs us, 7-6 vs Det), and Det is 10-9 (4-2 vs us, 6-7 vs KC).   So Det is the #1, we are the #2, and KC is the #3. So to be the #1 wild card and get home field Tuesday, we need either one win or one Detroit loss.   KC's results are irrelevant to whether we get the #1 spot or not, although they could jump us and Detroit by winning out if we lose out and Det wins out.

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