POLL: Who Do You Want As Your Closer in 2009?

[Old#5fan]

There's a big difference b/t regressing and not having as good of a season b/c you're pitching injured.

I agree but nobody knows which it is except Ray himself.

[Crazysilver03]

Since you seem to love to point out problems I will point out one with you and that is you cannot handle anyone disagreeing with you unless they use some sort of statistical norm or measurement. You allow no tolerance for any kind of opinion or interpretation of something other than your own method. In essence, you are as intolerant as you accuse me of being.

As an example, I don't give a hoot if statistically Chris Ray walked less batters per inning in 2007 than Sherrill in 2008. I personally do not like Chris Ray as a closer. I think he is scared of the top hitters in the game and nibbles too much. Do I have stats or empirical evidence to support this no, nor does it matter to me. However, I see it first hand with my own two eyes. I also think he is wild in the strike zone by throwing HR balls down the heart of the plate, which is not going to show as lack of control in the almighty and glorified statistics that some of you seem to live and die by. Sherrill doesn't have this as much of an issue.

I think Sherrill goes after hitters and doesn't fear anyone. Ergo, I fail to see how anyone would prefer Ray. Now this entire reasoning makes no sense to you, because it cannot be measured. However, it doesn't necessarily make my viewpoint invalid. This is a problem I have with posters like yourself, and to top it off you love to throw out the negative rep., merely because you don't like my "method" of looking at something.

I am fine with people's opinions. I am fine without statistics and measurements. Most of my arguments (and negative rep) are directed towards flawed arguments/logic. I am fine with your opinion that Sherrill likes to attack the hitters more then Ray. I dont attack that. When you try to make assumptions with things that can be measured and you can be proven wrong, thats when I have a problem.

That really isn't all that many innings and you cannot arbitrarily "take out" those bad innings or four bad outings because they happened and hurt the team.

You want to say Ray looked bad in 2007, but you turn around and say it isnt that many innings, so really you shouldnt draw any conclusions from it, with stats or with inferences.

However, when you say that Ray walks more batters and Sherrill throws more strikes and that is proven wrong, then you should acknowledge it.Why do I need to acknowledge it? So what if Ray walks fewer hitters slightly per inning than Sherrill?

This is why I have a problem with your logic/arguments. You are proven wrong and instead of saying, "I was wrong with that assumption," you completely ignore it. You say Ray walks more batters per inning, that is dealing with a statistic! If you say he looks wild, there are some measures, but a pitcher can still look wild and have decent stats (ala Jenks, Sarfate). But you said he walked more and we proved you wrong. You own up to that you were wrong.

[waroriole]

I agree but nobody knows which it is except Ray himself.

You're talking like you know by continuously saying he has regressed. Even if he wasn't pitching injured, that still doesn't mean he regressed. It could just mean that he didn't have as good of a season as he did the previous two years. I need more than one season of declining improvement to say someone has regressed. But, to each his own I guess.

[Maverick2143]

What where the others doing at Ray's age? That might be a better comparison. Plus, I think Ray regressed which is not good. He should be getting better not worse with experience.

It's a mixed bag, most were actually rookies at age 25. Others like Percival & KRod were pitching at a high level.

Stats through age 25

Ray

Age 23- 40.2 Innings 2.66 ERA

Age 24- 66.0 Innings 2.73 ERA

Age 25- 42.6 Innings 4.43 ERA

Rivera (Rookie Season)

67.0 Innings 5.51 ERA

Hoffman (Rookie Season)

90 Innings 3.90 ERA

Lidge (Rookie Season)

8.2 Innings 6.23 ERA

Percival (Rookie Season)

74 innings 1.95 ERA- Become closer the following season

Ryan

Age 23- 20.1 Innings 3.10 ERA

Age 24- 42.6 Innings 5.91 ERA

Age 25- 53.0 Innings 4.25 ERA

Nathan (As a Starter)

Age 24 90.3 Innings 4.18 ERA

Age 25 93.0 Innings 5.21 ERA

K-Rod

I am pretty sure K-Rod struck out the doctor that delivered him.

The only one who surpases Ray in terms of combined experience & performance is KRod, although Percival was pretty damn good in his rookie year.

[rhall]

I voted for Ray, and it wasn't because I don't like Sherrill in the closer role. It's a combination of things.

I wasn't impressed by Sherrill in the closer role - not bad (in the 1st half), but not a difference maker.

Ray has more dominant stuff, so now that he's healthy again, I'd like to see him get another chance to establish himself and grow in the 9th inning.

Letting Ray be the closer allows Sherrill to slide back into a lefty reliever role in our bullpen, which would be very valuable for us. Otherwise, we're counting on a Jamie Walker rebound. You could argue that Sherrill could do the same thing with Jim Johnson as the closer, but I feel that his value is highest in middle relief or as a set-up man. He can be a bridge to the closer who can go more than one inning if needed. I'm not comfortable with Ray going multiple innings.

I believe that you have to take the composition of the entire bullpen into consideration when assigning roles.

[Old#5fan]

I am fine with people's opinions. I am fine without statistics and measurements. Most of my arguments (and negative rep) are directed towards flawed arguments/logic. I am fine with your opinion that Sherrill likes to attack the hitters more then Ray. I dont attack that. When you try to make assumptions with things that can be measured and you can be proven wrong, thats when I have a problem.

You want to say Ray looked bad in 2007, but you turn around and say it isnt that many innings, so really you shouldnt draw any conclusions from it, with stats or with inferences.

This is why I have a problem with your logic/arguments. You are proven wrong and instead of saying, "I was wrong with that assumption," you completely ignore it. You say Ray walks more batters per inning, that is dealing with a statistic! If you say he looks wild, there are some measures, but a pitcher can still look wild and have decent stats (ala Jenks, Sarfate). But you said he walked more and we proved you wrong. You own up to that you were wrong.

Fine but owning up to that means nothing to me in regard to my absolute irrefutable belief that Sherrill has better command than Ray. Ergo, that stat is meaningless to me and when I see it hurled out as if it proves Ray has better control it just shows me how stupid it is to rely soley on stats. Even you seem to realize that if you realize the point about observing the two of them actually on the mound. ( I am not stating all stats are stupid or unreliable, but in the case or comparing Ray and Sherrill regarding control, walks don't show the true picture). So anyone trying to use walks in comparing Ray to Sherrill in asserting Ray has better command clearly needs to watch both of them pitch and understand the game better. I find the lack of doing that which seems prevalant at times here very annoying.

[bluedog]

Not controlling emotions is as fatal a flaw in a closer as lack of poise is to an NFL QB's sucess. I don't see Ray suddenly gaining composure. You either have it or you don't. Please refer to one Armondo Benitez, or Jorge Julio. Also, Daniel Cabrera has really made a lot of progress in this regard hasn't he?:rolleyestf:

Randy Johnson?

Curt Schilling?

Either of those names ring a bell?

Both guys were questioned when they were young because they were high strung guys who had trouble controlling their emotions in game situations. In fact, the O's gave up on Schilling in large part because they questioned his makeup, not his ability!

Seriously - comparing Chris Ray to Daniel Cabrera is just silly. Chris has three seasons in the majors under his belt all of which are superior to Cabrera's best season! In two of those seasons he pitched well enough for All-Star consideration!

And we're not talking about Ray being a head case who can't control his emotions on a regular basis! We're talking about him learning how to remain calm and control his stuff when facing the likes of Manny Ramirez, ARod and Vlad Guerrero in situations where the game is on the line.

[Old#5fan]

Randy Johnson?

Curt Schilling?

Either of those names ring a bell?

Both guys were questioned when they were young because they were high strung guys who had trouble controlling their emotions in game situations. In fact, the O's gave up on Schilling in large part because they questioned his makeup, not his ability!

Seriously - comparing Chris Ray to Daniel Cabrera is just silly. Chris has three seasons in the majors under his belt all of which are superior to Cabrera's best season! In two of those seasons he pitched well enough for All-Star consideration! Perlozzo if he had any backbone should have benched him for a week or two to make him think about never doing that again.

And we're not talking about Ray being a head case who can't control his emotions on a regular basis! We're talking about him learning how to remain calm and control his stuff when facing the likes of Manny Ramirez, ARod and Vlad Guerrero in situations where the game is on the line.

Regardless, poise is much more critical for a closer than a starting pitcher as he has more innings to work with. When a closer comes in the game is quite frequently hinging on every pitch. The fact that Ray who has been groomed all along as a closer has any kind of poise problem or issue is disturbing to say the least. I will never forget that bonehead play in the Mother's Day Meltdown when he didn't even cover first base in time. That was inexcusably bad and terrible poise when the chips were down!