Swing Decision Stories

[Just Regular]

Taking in the lessons of the new regime, and learning who is who around the game, I have percentile results at Chase Rate last 4 years for anyone making it to 300 AB/season 2018-2021 (or pace in 2020, naturally).    Looking only at 2021 actives who have played at least three years, here are some player milestone markers:

BEST - Alex Bregman

90th percentile - Yandy Diaz

80th - George Springer

70th - DJ LeMahieu

60th - Enrique Hernandez

50th - Manny Machado

40th - Teoscar Hernandez

30th - Nolan Arenado

20th - Randal Grichuk     (a target for Mountcastle/Santander to shoot at perhaps, assuming a Club can move a Player's innate needle a little bit)

10th - Rafael Devers/Anthony Santander

(Ryan Mountcastle has been 6th percentile Year 1, 4th percentile Year 2)

WORST - Salvador Perez

For all 1080 player seasons captured, anyone who has had a season down in the 4th percentile, the best they have ever done in any other season is in the 30's.   Raimel Tapia 2019-2021 went 3/39/15, and Jeff McNeil 2019-2021 went 5/12/34.

The only other instances of one Player Season >20% happened during the 2018-2020 runs of Robinson Cano (36/12/2), Jose Peraza (25/15/5) and Stephen Piscotty (14/24/1), all of which feel like maybe a whiff of desperation from guys near the end of the line who know it.

The few effective offensive players in Bottom 10% beneath Devers/Santander aside from Mountcastle are Castellanos, C. Dickerson, Avisail, Adolis, E. Rosario, Schoop before getting down to Salvador Perez's wildest inner circle buddies like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert, Javier Baez, and Bo Bichette.

Byron Buxton 2021 also distinctive - had to cheat filter down to 250 PA to read his 2021, but he managed a ~25th percentile improved outcome after a 2020 all the way at the bottom of the list.   2020 may have been his outlier (missed qualifying 2018-2019 when had some walks).