2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[baltimoreO's22]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Was reading this morning that Correa came out later in the process too.

I tend to not like helium guys right before the draft, at least with high picks.  
 

But sometimes guys just fall through the cracks or they change something and it turns them around or, they just get bigger and stronger.

Im on record as saying Jones should be the pick but if not, Collier, Green and Holliday seem to be defensible guys at this point.

I can’t get behind Johnson or any college player as a defensible pick at 1, no matter the hit tool of Johnson or floors of those college guys.  
 

In no way am I saying they would be a bust or some bad player, I just don’t like the upside nearly as much and I feel that’s the direction they need to be going in.

Correa is a little different of a story because he was so young. He didn't turn 18 until after the season started the following year, which I believe is part of the reason he was a helium guy. I'm not sure if he was a reclass, since he didn't go to school in the states, but that age played a big role in his rising up the board.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, baltimoreO's22 said:

Correa is a little different of a story because he was so young. He didn't turn 18 until after the season started the following year, which I believe is part of the reason he was a helium guy. I'm not sure if he was a reclass, since he didn't go to school in the states, but that age played a big role in his rising up the board.

And it’s a big reason to watch Collier.

[baltimoreO's22]

2 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I don’t think the debate is really don’t “the most talented guy” but if there is really a one most talented player. I would be upset if the orioles took Berry, as he’s outside the top tier of talent. But within that top tier I can make good arguments for all of them, and I don’t really see a large separation.

Some on here argue that if one guy is a 93 & the other is a 92.5 it’s a travesty if you take the 92.5 bc why even get the top pick then. I think at that point you’re guessing either way on which player is going to be better

The draft is one giant crapshoot, but it has been quite some time since there was a consensus number 1 like Jones, right? I don't remember anyone recently being touted as the best prospect in years. 

[seak05]

As an aside I thought Mayer was the obvious 1:1 last year, or at least Leiter. But I think at 1:1 clubs get very risk averse, and college position players are by far the safest demographic. No club wants to whiff on a 7m dollar first pick 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, seak05 said:

I don’t think the debate is really don’t “the most talented guy” but if there is really a one most talented player. I would be upset if the orioles took Berry, as he’s outside the top tier of talent. But within that top tier I can make good arguments for all of them, and I don’t really see a large separation.

Some on here argue that if one guy is a 93 & the other is a 92.5 it’s a travesty if you take the 92.5 bc why even get the top pick then. I think at that point you’re guessing either way on which player is going to be better

What you are missing is that you rate player X over player Y for a reason.  It doesn’t matter if it’s close.  You still believe in one players talent/all around game more than another guy.  

Of course things are going to be close in a lot of cases but close doesn’t mean you don’t favor a player more than another.

Sometimes that closeness ends up being Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf and other times it goes the other way.

But you scout these guys, you rank them, you discuss them, etc..for several months.  Once you have done all of that, the player you feel is the best long term guy is the one you should take and, in this case, that’s the guy you have #1 on your board.

[baltimoreO's22]

7 minutes ago, seak05 said:

As an aside I thought Mayer was the obvious 1:1 last year, or at least Leiter. But I think at 1:1 clubs get very risk averse, and college position players are by far the safest demographic. No club wants to whiff on a 7m dollar first pick 

I have a feeling that Elias will select Lee, because of this, but I don't agree with it. Just as I didn't agree with Cowser over Lawlar. However no one will know what the right pick will be until years from now, but given the history that Elias has show I think Lee will be the pick. 

[seak05]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What you are missing is that you rate player X over player Y for a reason.  It doesn’t matter if it’s close.  You still believe in one players talent/all around game more than another guy.  

Of course things are going to be close in a lot of cases but close doesn’t mean you don’t favor a player more than another.

Sometimes that closeness ends up being Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf and other times it goes the other way.

But you scout these guys, you rank them, you discuss them, etc..for several months.  Once you have done all of that, the player you feel is the best long term guy is the one you should take and, in this case, that’s the guy you have #1 on your board.

And sometimes you get Correa and Buxton, or Witt Jr and Adley, or Harper and Machado (another late riser who was young for his class). Because what often happens if you have some people who feel one way, and others who feel differently. There’s very rarely a consensus on who belongs “on top”. But if one guy wants 2m more, you’d have to feel strongly he was the better player. As long as you’re staying within talent tiers.

What you don’t want to do though is choose Bush over Verlander, where they were clearly on different talent tiers, just for the savings

[seak05]

6 minutes ago, baltimoreO's22 said:

I have a feeling that Elias will select Lee, because of this, but I don't agree with it. Just as I didn't agree with Cowser over Lawlar. However no one will know what the right pick will be until years from now, but given the history that Elias has show I think Lee will be the pick. 

It wouldn’t surprise me. He wouldn’t be my pick, but I do think some around here are focusing to much on the fact he’s not a SS & ignoring the fact that 2b and 3b are still premium positions. 
 

This is part of where the Collier intrigue comes in for me though. If he performs well in the cape, you now have data on him against high level pitchers in a way you don’t for Jones, plus he has a lot of upside 

[RZNJ]

We’re a month out and I’m guessing it’s Termarr Johnson.   He checks a lot of boxes.  He’s 5 months older than Collier for those playing the age card.  He played on the same summer league team as Green and Jones and was considered the best hitter of the three coming into this year.  He’s got plus pull power and is considered a very disciplined hitter.  He is considered very likely to be able to play 2B as a pro.  His makeup is off the charts.  
 

The Orioles had him workout at OPACY.   He’ll likely sign for less than Jones. 
 

Though he’s built differently and hits from the other side, think Mookie Betts who, coincidentally was also drafted as a 2B.

Or. Think Joe Morgan!

[ShoelesJoe]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I can’t get behind Johnson or any college player as a defensible pick at 1, no matter the hit tool of Johnson or floors of those college guys.  
 

I don’t quite understand the resistance to drafting Termarr Johnson. I’m not saying he’d be my first choice, but there shouldn’t be anything disqualifying about a kid who projects to be an average 2nd baseman, defense wise. Somebody has to play second base, it may as well be a guy who can hit. An average glove hasn’t seemed to hurt the careers of Jose Altuve or DJ LeMahieu. 
 

Also, Elias & Co. were able to get up close and personal with Johnson at Camden Yards, and probably at the San Diego combine as well. If they do pick him at 1-1 I have to think they’ve crunched the numbers and checked their crystal ball enough that they’ll have a good idea of his offensive +defensive value going forward. 

[Sports Guy]

24 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

We’re a month out and I’m guessing it’s Termarr Johnson.   He checks a lot of boxes.  He’s 5 months older than Collier for those playing the age card.  He played on the same summer league team as Green and Jones and was considered the best hitter of the three coming into this year.  He’s got plus pull power and is considered a very disciplined hitter.  He is considered very likely to be able to play 2B as a pro.  His makeup is off the charts.  
 

The Orioles had him workout at OPACY.   He’ll likely sign for less than Jones. 
 

Though he’s built differently and hits from the other side, think Mookie Betts who, coincidentally was also drafted as a 2B.

Or. Think Joe Morgan!

The Orioles have had multiple guys in for a look.  It’s just part of the process. And you don’t know who else has been in that you don’t know about.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, ShoelesJoe said:

I don’t quite understand the resistance to drafting Termarr Johnson. I’m not saying he’d be my first choice, but there shouldn’t be anything disqualifying about a kid who projects to be an average 2nd baseman, defense wise. Somebody has to play second base, it may as well be a guy who can hit. An average glove hasn’t seemed to hurt the careers of Jose Altuve or DJ LeMahieu. 
 

Also, Elias & Co. were able to get up close and personal with Johnson at Camden Yards, and probably at the San Diego combine as well. If they do pick him at 1-1 I have to think they’ve crunched the numbers and checked their crystal ball enough that they’ll have a good idea of his offensive +defensive value going forward. 

I think most folks are of the mindset that while he might be an average 2B now, they doubt if he will project as one down the road.

I also think he suffers from the same sort of aesthetic deficit that hits players like DJ Stewart.   He just doesn't look the part.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, ShoelesJoe said:

I don’t quite understand the resistance to drafting Termarr Johnson. I’m not saying he’d be my first choice, but there shouldn’t be anything disqualifying about a kid who projects to be an average 2nd baseman, defense wise. Somebody has to play second base, it may as well be a guy who can hit. An average glove hasn’t seemed to hurt the careers of Jose Altuve or DJ LeMahieu. 
 

Also, Elias & Co. were able to get up close and personal with Johnson at Camden Yards, and probably at the San Diego combine as well. If they do pick him at 1-1 I have to think they’ve crunched the numbers and checked their crystal ball enough that they’ll have a good idea of his offensive +defensive value going forward. 

He’s small and he has some athleticism question marks.  And yes, him being “just a second baseman” hinders it for me.  
 

 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think most folks are of the mindset that while he might be an average 2B now, they doubt if he will project as one down the road.

I also think he suffers from the same sort of aesthetic deficit that hits players like DJ Stewart.   He just doesn't look the part.

I have a Little bit of worry that he’s Huira.  
 

I just think there are far too many other protectable very good young guys to go after and all of them would provide savings, if that’s the route/reason you go.

 

If we were picking in the 5-8 range, I would have been very happy with Johnson..but not at 1.

[RZNJ]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Orioles have had multiple guys in for a look.  It’s just part of the process. And you don’t know who else has been in that you don’t know about.

Multiple guys?  Who else has been reported?

The only guys in for workouts that became public knowledge were guys they actually took, to the best of my knowledge.  Let me know when Green, Jones, and Holliday come for their visits.