2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

4 hours ago, joe42 said:

Surprised Green is not getting a little more love. I know about the swing and miss, but ALL the tools are there. imo.... So for me, either either Jones or Green.

 

Risk 

[NCRaven]

Every report I've seen on Green uses some form of the phrase "swing and miss in his game."  That scares the bejeezus out of me when you're picking 1:1.  Green would be #5 on my list of 5 that we keep seeing for Elias.  Anyone you take at #1 has risk, there are few perfect draft picks.  But there's something to be said for some level of bust aversion.

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Every report I've seen on Green uses some form of the phrase "swing and miss in his game."  That scares the bejeezus out of me when you're picking 1:1.  Green would be #5 on my list of 5 that we keep seeing for Elias.  Anyone you take at #1 has risk, there are few perfect draft picks.  But there's something to be said for some level of bust aversion.

What may be scary to some is that Green may not be on the list of 5.   

[NCRaven]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

What may be scary to some is that Green may not be on the list of 5.   

Not to me.  The most important tool for me is the hit tool.  It's why I refuse to get high on Mateo.  All the speed in the world won't help if he doesn't get on base.  And the game has changed since the 70's.  Mark Belanger is a utility guy today, at best.  If the hit tool is as questionable as Green's seems to be, I'm not going there at 1:1.  

Having said that, I have never seen any of these guys play.  For all I know, you could right Jones, Johnson, Lee, and Holliday's names on slips of paper, throw them in an Orioles batting helmet, and have the lady that use to sweep the bases at Memorial Stadium pick a name out of the hat, and it might not matter.

[Jammer7]

56 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Every report I've seen on Green uses some form of the phrase "swing and miss in his game."  That scares the bejeezus out of me when you're picking 1:1.  Green would be #5 on my list of 5 that we keep seeing for Elias.  Anyone you take at #1 has risk, there are few perfect draft picks.  But there's something to be said for some level of bust aversion.

That talk has been somewhat mitigated this Spring, from many things I have read. Recently, and I think it was Callis and/or Mayo on their podcast, it has been said that there will be some swing and miss, but that it is ok because of the enormous damage he will do.

The reason Elias may like him is if they feel their PD folks can help him limit that even further. Whether it is mechanical or mental, or both. The next “flagship” guy, maybe. Not saying they will, or should take him. 

[NCRaven]

33 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

That talk has been somewhat mitigated this Spring, from many things I have read. Recently, and I think it was Callis and/or Mayo on their podcast, it has been said that there will be some swing and miss, but that it is ok because of the enormous damage he will do.

The reason Elias may like him is if they feel their PD folks can help him limit that even further. Whether it is mechanical or mental, or both. The next “flagship” guy, maybe. Not saying they will, or should take him. 

Based on this, you can write Green’s name on one of those slips of paper and throw it in the hat too.

 

[Jammer7]

Just now, NCRaven said:

Based on this, you can write Green’s name on one of those slips of paper and throw it in the hat too.

 

I don’t know, pal. We can build a case either way. I liked an interview I saw on MLB network with he and his pops. I think it all comes down to intangibles and how well the pick will receive the instruction for Elias on this pick. 

[SpOkane]

6 hours ago, CharmCityHokie said:

It's interesting, because I always hear about how IMG Academy is pumping out athletes who are ready to turn pro, but a look at those drafted from IMG isn't very inspiring:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?key_school=9d754fec&exact=1&query_type=key_school

Law and Longenhagen speak to this on the podcast linked below.  Basically say IMG has good marketing that lures athletes to their school, but they do no development with their athletes. Wonder when families and athletes will understand that?

The Keith Law Show: 2022 MLB Draft Prep w/Eric Longenhagen on Apple Podcasts

[jrobb21613]

Ian Ritchie Jr. committed to UCLA is one of the top prep arms in the draft. Im hoping he's on Elias short list.  I've seen him ranked between 20 and 47.

 

In a deep prep pitching class, Ritchie stands out for a loud package of both pure stuff and control/command. The 2022 prep pitching class has more guys touching 97 at 17 years old than maybe any other class in history. But not all of them can find the strike zone with consistency. That is where Ritchie thrives. The fastball sits 91-93 on most days, up to 97 and hot in the early innings. He has a firm, tight slider up into the mid-80s with late two-plane break that he also commands very well. He also built a deeper, high-70s curveball into his arsenal with distinct vertical movement and significant spin rates. Jordan Lawlar called his breaking ball the best pitch he saw all summer in 2021. Ritchie also features a changeup he's shown excellent feel for with good arm-side fade. Finally, he's working to mix in a low-90s 2-seam fastball, deployed away from lefty bats. Ritchie has an extremely quick arm with elite mechanics and lower half strength. He's a very good bet to start long-term, and has the potential to be the best prep arm to come out of Washington since Blake Snell or Tim Lincecum.

[RZNJ]

Personally, I would look college pitching in the competitive balance rounds.

[btdart20]

9 hours ago, jrobb21613 said:

Ian Ritchie Jr. committed to UCLA is one of the top prep arms in the draft. Im hoping he's on Elias short list.  I've seen him ranked between 20 and 47.

 

In a deep prep pitching class, Ritchie stands out for a loud package of both pure stuff and control/command. The 2022 prep pitching class has more guys touching 97 at 17 years old than maybe any other class in history. But not all of them can find the strike zone with consistency. That is where Ritchie thrives. The fastball sits 91-93 on most days, up to 97 and hot in the early innings. He has a firm, tight slider up into the mid-80s with late two-plane break that he also commands very well. He also built a deeper, high-70s curveball into his arsenal with distinct vertical movement and significant spin rates. Jordan Lawlar called his breaking ball the best pitch he saw all summer in 2021. Ritchie also features a changeup he's shown excellent feel for with good arm-side fade. Finally, he's working to mix in a low-90s 2-seam fastball, deployed away from lefty bats. Ritchie has an extremely quick arm with elite mechanics and lower half strength. He's a very good bet to start long-term, and has the potential to be the best prep arm to come out of Washington since Blake Snell or Tim Lincecum.

This isn’t the first I’ve heard of HS pitching depth.  Glad to hear it again!  It would be great to land one or two of these guys as an overslot in rd 2-3.  Hopefully they really talk up their college commits allowing them to fall and our bonus money is convincing.  

If nothing else, it pushes down college arms with a higher floor.

[Sports Guy]

They are obviously going position player first.  After that, I don’t want to see them square peg/round hole picks just because we need pitching.  If the BPA is a pitcher, get him but if you have some highly ranked position player there, I don’t take a pitcher over him just because we need pitching.

[RZNJ]

There is going to be plenty of good pitching between pick 33 and 67.  Whether that's a HS pitching or college.    I do expect them to go with at least 1 pitcher with those 3 picks.   I would not be surprised if 2 of those picks are pitchers.   I would go for the college guys.   I already mentioned Crawford and Misiorowski.      I think there will be better value in pitching there.  We know the top 10 to 12 players are all going to be position players.   Obviously there will still be good position players at 33 thru 67 but I think the upside in the college arms is better.

[Hank Scorpio]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

There is going to be plenty of good pitching between pick 33 and 67.  Whether that's a HS pitching or college.    I do expect them to go with at least 1 pitcher with those 3 picks.   I would not be surprised if 2 of those picks are pitchers.   I would go for the college guys.   I already mentioned Crawford and Misiorowski.      I think there will be better value in pitching there.  We know the top 10 to 12 players are all going to be position players.   Obviously there will still be good position players at 33 thru 67 but I think the upside in the college arms is better.

Agree...

[Frobby]

18 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Not to me.  The most important tool for me is the hit tool.  It's why I refuse to get high on Mateo.  All the speed in the world won't help if he doesn't get on base.  And the game has changed since the 70's.  Mark Belanger is a utility guy today, at best.  

Not a chance.  One thing has always been true in baseball, and always will be true: you judge a player based on the combination of how many runs he adds on offense and how many he takes away on defense.   Mark Belanger was a 40 WAR player.   That guy is not going to be a utility player in any era, so long as GMs and managers have a brain in their head.   

Now Mateo is another story.  I agree he’s on thin ice.