2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

Jim Callis mock draft on 5/11.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-position-players-standout.html

Has the Orioles taking Jones but has Green, Holiday, Jones, Lee, and Berry as possibilities.

He says Jones is the #1 guy but not as clear as in 2019 (Rutschman) or 2020 (Torkelson).

Considering their past drafts, I'm preparing myself for Lee or Berry.

Lee sounds like a top 5 guy whereas Berry sounds like a 6-10 guy although he might be the best all around hitter in the draft.

[joelala]

Jacob Berry it is then. 

[Sports Guy]

9 hours ago, joelala said:

Jacob Berry it is then. 

That’s my concern.  I think it’s pretty clear that he will be the cheapest option.

[RZNJ]

Ok.  I'm just playing devil's advocate here but what if Jacob Berry is the best all-around hitter in the draft with the lowest floor as a hitter.   He's a 3B at best but good chance he's a 1B.    I know this argument has been made before for both Cowser and Kjerstad BUT, suppose Elias feels Berry is as good a pick as the HS players and Lee but can be signed for 6.5M or whatever.

I can't read Elias mind.  It is hard for me to believe that he passes on a player they rate higher (Jones) to save 2M for later in the draft.   I have to agree with SG in the sense that you can save money in other rounds to go overslot for a supplemental or 2nd round pick.

So, I want to believe that Elias/Ciolek are going to pick the guy they like best and if it saves money, that's just a bonus.

You can't argue that it's cheap because they wind up paying the same in total draft allotment whether they go straight slot or underslot at 1:1.

So Elias is either too cute with the first pick or the O's genuinely believe they keep taking the highest guy on their board.

Again, I do believe Elias said in an interview that the 1st pick is the most important so I've always defended against the "being too cute" angle.

[Sports Guy]

You absolutely can argue it’s being cheap because maybe they don’t want to pay 8-8.5M for a HS kid that is unproven.  I can definitely see the Angelos family believing that.  
 

It’s a different type of cheap. 
 

And there is no argument for Berry at 1.  

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You absolutely can argue it’s being cheap because maybe they don’t want to pay 8-8.5M for a HS kid that is unproven.  I can definitely see the Angelos family believing that.  
 

It’s a different type of cheap. 
 

And there is no argument for Berry at 1.  

Fine.  Why doesn't Baseball America or MLB's Callis say there's no argument for Berry at #1?   

Also, do you think the Angelos' would really forbid Elias to go slot for a HS player at #1.   That's Peter, maybe.  That's not the sons.  Elias is in charge on the draft.

[Sports Guy]

53 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Fine.  Why doesn't Baseball America or MLB's Callis say there's no argument for Berry at #1?   

Also, do you think the Angelos' would really forbid Elias to go slot for a HS player at #1.   That's Peter, maybe.  That's not the sons.  Elias is in charge on the draft.

Because they know the Os are the ones drafting.  It has nothing to do with his talent.  It’s all about the Os and the philosophy.

I believe Callis said if Berry doesn’t go 1, he’s going 6-10.  That tells you all you need to know.

And yea, I think there’s a chance although I do agree that it’s more likely that would come from PA.

[OriolesMagic83]

I think it's been mentioned that Peter isn't making any decisions for the O's and due to his health, probably isn't making major decisions of any kind.

[waroriole]

Having drafted the clear #1 last time we had this pick makes me feel better that we won’t go value college kid at #1. I’m not going to pretend to have an informed opinion on what they should do, but I’ll definitely have a better feeling if they pick Jones. Just don’t expect him before 2028 if Elias is still here. 

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law published his first mock draft today and has the O's taking Jacob Berry. I don't think it is worth getting too worked up over the mock drafts. The Orioles are doing their due diligence and it is too their advantage to act like they don't believe Druw Jones is far and away the best player and negotiate with several players to potentially save money for later in the draft. Though if they do end up taking Berry, I will be disappointed. 

The current betting has the Orioles taking a college position player and cutting a deal with him, as they did when picking second (2020) and fifth (2021) in the last two drafts, in part because they don’t believe that Druw Jones is head-and-shoulders above the remainder of the draft class.

[OriolesMagic83]

I wonder if Elias is gunshy on picking top talent in the draft after having a couple of picks blow up in Houston.  I definitely can't see Elias picking a pitcher w/ a top 5 pick.  This underslot strategy looks like trying to be "too smart".   I want Elias to pick the best talent w/ the #1 pick.  I don't want to get a guy w/ an upside of ML regular so that the O's can select a 2nd round talent in the 5th round.  I want to get the guy w/ the upside of an All-Star, even MVP.  Yes, I know that sometimes things blow up in your face.  You're not turning around the worst team in baseball making a bunch of safe picks.

[RZNJ]

You aren't turning a franchise around with safe picks.  You turn it around with good picks.   If Elias goes with Berry or Lee over Jones, he sets himself up for second guessing just like when he went with Cowser over Lawlar.    Actually, the "safe" pick would be Jones.    

Elias has a lot of confidence in their evaluation process.    

 

The only picks I can recall blowing up in Houston were a college pitcher (Appel) and a HS pitcher (Aiken).    

[Just Regular]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-2022-jackson-holliday-druw-jones

Hey look, Jonathan Mayo this morning thinks Jackson Holliday.   It's almost like they are just playing with variables and trying for clicks.

I haven't seen exact details of the signing deadline for this year's draftees - last year it was 8/1 after a 7/11 draft when we had the Kumar didn't sign, etc.

The draft is now not until 7/17.   I wonder if it will be tight before trade deadline, or loose giving Clubs until after Tuesday 8/2 at 6pm.   That's just 16 total days for draft pool deployment and trading unless they push the signing deadline until later in August.    Plus those ever so deliberate after Futures Game promotion decisions!

[RZNJ]

I could talk myself into just about anyone because my general belief is to have confidence and faith in the process that Elias employs in the making the pick.

Jacob Berry would have been way down MY list.   I watched pre-season video and didn't see anything overly impressive.   His position is in doubt with 3B being a best case scenario and 1B/LF being more realistic possibilities.   So, what does he offer.   Both Lee and Berry are talked about as being the best college hitter but what I read about Berry is louder exit velocites and more current power and power potential than Lee.  Both are switch hitters who are reportedly strong from both sides.

Now, Vaughn was a #3 pick and Torkelson was a #1 overall pick.   I don't like taking that kind of player unless they really are an elite hitter.   Is Berry an elite hitter?   That's the question.   I read impressive things about him.   He's only struck out 18 times in 180 AB's this year and that's playing in a very strong conference with LSU.    He doesn't have that many walks but they keep saying he won't go out of the zone and be overaggressive.   

So, the exciting picks are definitely Jones and Green.   The safer picks are Lee and Berry.    If you could be talked into Berry being an elite hitter is that enough to pass on the tools of Jones and Green?   I know the answer of most but think about it again.   The bat is the most important tool.   I'll take Lance Berkman over Cameron Maybin any day.    Now, obviously, that's a hypothetical comparison.   Jones could be Willy Mays and Green could be a RH Bryce Harper.   But it's worth discussing.    No one in the right mind would be pass on Willy Mays or Bryce Harper to get Lance Berkman.   So, if the Orioles take Lee or Berry we have to ask what they don't see in Jones or Green.    It's not about the 2M saved on the bonus.

[MurphDogg]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

You aren't turning a franchise around with safe picks.  You turn it around with good picks.   If Elias goes with Berry or Lee over Jones, he sets himself up for second guessing just like when he went with Cowser over Lawlar.    Actually, the "safe" pick would be Jones.    

Elias has a lot of confidence in their evaluation process.    

 

The only picks I can recall blowing up in Houston were a college pitcher (Appel) and a HS pitcher (Aiken).    

Worked out when he took Correa over Buxton.