2022 MLB Draft Discussion (Use this thread to discuss all picks, not Orioles picks)

[RZNJ]

58 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

He's had 3 more years of development and is 3 years older.  It's likely that in 3 years, Jones' bat will be better than Berry's bat.

There's certainly a chance of that happening.  I don't know what the odds are but I think it's debatable as whether it's likely or not.

If it was likely, Jones would be a no brainer.

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Jacob Berry, accomplished college hitter that some (I could even say many) say is the best college hitter in the nation is not a better bet to be an impact hitter at the ML level than Druw Jones?    Ok.

Yea.  And since baseball is more than hitting and age, position, etc..matter, there is no justification for taking Berry over Jones, no matter how much smarter you think Elias is than everyone else and how he does no wrong.

Its an awful decision.  
 

 

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea.  And since baseball is more than hitting and age, position, etc..matter, there is no justification for taking Berry over Jones, no matter how much smarter you think Elias is than everyone else and how he does no wrong.

Its an awful decision.  
 

 

You have a closed mind on the subject.  You don't think Elias is dumb or an idiot.  But you think that Jones is a generational talent and that Elias would pass on him just to save a couple million to snag two lesser players.  

You being you have made up your mind and are unwilling to think of other possibilities other than Jones is #1 by far and nothing else makes sense.  

[Sports Guy]

8 hours ago, RZNJ said:

You have a closed mind on the subject.  You don't think Elias is dumb or an idiot.  But you think that Jones is a generational talent and that Elias would pass on him just to save a couple million to snag two lesser players.  

You being you have made up your mind and are unwilling to think of other possibilities other than Jones is #1 by far and nothing else makes sense.  

I want you to just think about this for a moment. All of these factors matter:

1). The Orioles have a stated goal of not caring about winning games.  They are/have been losing on purpose.  Seriously let that sink in.  They are literally throwing seasons away.

2) When you lose on purpose, you gain 2 advantages.  Advantage 1 is a high draft pick.  Advantage 2 is a high draft pool.  That’s it.  There are zero other things you gain by losing on purpose baseball wise. (Yea you also save money but I’m purely talking baseball stuff)

We are now going to have the third draft (Adley draft doesn’t count because they didn’t try to lose in 2018) in which this strategy has resulted in a high pick and in this draft, we have the chance to take high level, high ceiling talent with the first pick.  Even Elias has, in multiple interviews, talked about the HS kids and how high the ceilings are.   His words in the one interview were “this is a good year to have the first pick”.  

If this is a good year to have the first pick, why would you then waste that pick on a lower ceiling talent who is cheaper?  Why would you not actually acquire a top flight talent, whether it be Jones or, to a lesser extent, Green?

The Orioles have gone the “safer” route for the last 2 years and outside of a few guys, this was probably the better play given that the talent at the top of the draft was shaky the last 2 years outside of Lawlar and Tork.  After that, the top of the drafts haven’t been loaded.  This one, by all accounts, is.

Also, by all accounts, the Os lack elite talent in the system outside of a few guys who will graduate soon.  And don’t tell me who cares what BA says because Elias can certainly quote them and others all day long when he talks about the system rankings by those guys.  If you want to quote their system rankings, quote their draft rankings too.  If one matters and you are going to treat them and others as authorities on that subject, be consistent about it .

You can’t quote that and act like that means something for one ranking but then ignore other rankings and things they say.  It doesn’t work that way.

You also have the second highest draft pool ever, so you can still easily go overslot in this draft And it’s not like they are going overslot with every pick or anything like that.  They may get 2 guys that they go big on and they can still do that while paying slot with the first pick.

Taking all of that into consideration, the idea that they would take a lesser player on their board (and everyone else’s) for chances that players drop later, in a draft where elite level talent is available at the top, is stupid.  You are losing on purpose.  You are pissing in the faces of fans by putting a product on the field that is designed to lose games while charging them a lot for that product and the one advantage you have, you are going to take lesser talent?

I have already shown the the underslot strategy doesn’t typically produce you upper echelon talent and let’s be real, I didn’t need to show that anyway.  We all know the hit rates for the draft are low and once you get past the first round, it’s rare to produce anything, much less enough to make up the difference between a super star talent And a solid player.

So yes, you are damn right that I’m close minded on this.  The Os already have the best farm system.  They have already rebuilt.  It’s over.  There is no more rebuilding.  What’s left now is winning and getting the best players you possibly can into the organization for long term strength.  Not doing that, in this draft with the talent available and under the umbrella of how you have played out these last several years and how you need elite talent, it would be a complete and utter failure to make that pick (or Lee although he at least plays a premium position).

I don’t buy for a second that Elias thinks Berry is close to these guys.  That’s bullshit.  It’s him trying to overthink things and act like he’s the smartest guy in the room.  It’s him thinking he can get a second round talent in the 4th round.  Who cares?  Why does that matter?  You can do that anyway!!!  You don’t need to go cheap and stupid to accomplish that goal.

Earlier you asked about the hitting.  Ok great.  What about age, position, speed and upside?  Who does that favor.  Jones or Berry? Green or Berry?  Jones/Green or Lee?

How many elite, HOF level talents out of college get drafted high in the first round and how many of them were underslot guys that you took to get “more talent” later?  How often does that happen?  Who are the players that have done that?

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/every-no-1-overall-mlb-draft-pick.html

Best first picks from a college program have been Strasburg, Surhoff, Cole and Price.  After that, lots of failures or just good players.  Is that what you want with this pick?

Elias could take Jones, have him fail and see Berry accumulate 30 WAR and he still would have easily made the right decision.  

[RZNJ]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I want you to just think about this for a moment. All of these factors matter:

1). The Orioles have a stated goal of not caring about winning games.  They are/have been losing on purpose.  Seriously let that sink in.  They are literally throwing seasons away.

2) When you lose on purpose, you gain 2 advantages.  Advantage 1 is a high draft pick.  Advantage 2 is a high draft pool.  That’s it.  There are zero other things you gain by losing on purpose baseball wise. (Yea you also save money but I’m purely talking baseball stuff)

We are now going to have the third draft (Adley draft doesn’t count because they didn’t try to lose in 2018) in which this strategy has resulted in a high pick and in this draft, we have the chance to take high level, high ceiling talent with the first pick.  Even Elias has, in multiple interviews, talked about the HS kids and how high the ceilings are.   His words in the one interview were “this is a good year to have the first pick”.  

If this is a good year to have the first pick, why would you then waste that pick on a lower ceiling talent who is cheaper?  Why would you not actually acquire a top flight talent, whether it be Jones or, to a lesser extent, Green?

The Orioles have gone the “safer” route for the last 2 years and outside of a few guys, this was probably the better play given that the talent at the top of the draft was shaky the last 2 years outside of Lawlar and Tork.  After that, the top of the drafts haven’t been loaded.  This one, by all accounts, is.

Also, by all accounts, the Os lack elite talent in the system outside of a few guys who will graduate soon.  And don’t tell me who cares what BA says because Elias can certainly quote them and others all day long when he talks about the system rankings by those guys.  If you want to quote their system rankings, quote their draft rankings too.  If one matters and you are going to treat them and others as authorities on that subject, be consistent about it .

You can’t quote that and act like that means something for one ranking but then ignore other rankings and things they say.  It doesn’t work that way.

You also have the second highest draft pool ever, so you can still easily go overslot in this draft And it’s not like they are going overslot with every pick or anything like that.  They may get 2 guys that they go big on and they can still do that while paying slot with the first pick.

Taking all of that into consideration, the idea that they would take a lesser player on their board (and everyone else’s) for chances that players drop later, in a draft where elite level talent is available at the top, is stupid.  You are losing on purpose.  You are pissing in the faces of fans by putting a product on the field that is designed to lose games while charging them a lot for that product and the one advantage you have, you are going to take lesser talent?

I have already shown the the underslot strategy doesn’t typically produce you upper echelon talent and let’s be real, I didn’t need to show that anyway.  We all know the hit rates for the draft are low and once you get past the first round, it’s rare to produce anything, much less enough to make up the difference between a super star talent And a solid player.

So yes, you are damn right that I’m close minded on this.  The Os already have the best farm system.  They have already rebuilt.  It’s over.  There is no more rebuilding.  What’s left now is winning and getting the best players you possibly can into the organization for long term strength.  Not doing that, in this draft with the talent available and under the umbrella of how you have played out these last several years and how you need elite talent, it would be a complete and utter failure to make that pick (or Lee although he at least plays a premium position).

I don’t buy for a second that Elias thinks Berry is close to these guys.  That’s bullshit.  It’s him trying to overthink things and act like he’s the smartest guy in the room.  It’s him thinking he can get a second round talent in the 4th round.  Who cares?  Why does that matter?  You can do that anyway!!!  You don’t need to go cheap and stupid to accomplish that goal.

Earlier you asked about the hitting.  Ok great.  What about age, position, speed and upside?  Who does that favor.  Jones or Berry? Green or Berry?  Jones/Green or Lee?

How many elite, HOF level talents out of college get drafted high in the first round and how many of them were underslot guys that you took to get “more talent” later?  How often does that happen?  Who are the players that have done that?

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/every-no-1-overall-mlb-draft-pick.html

Best first picks from a college program have been Strasburg, Surhoff, Cole and Price.  After that, lots of failures or just good players.  Is that what you want with this pick?

Elias could take Jones, have him fail and see Berry accumulate 30 WAR and he still would have easily made the right decision.  

Let's just skip to your last paragraph.  Here's where you're wrong.  Elias has said that they have a system that doesn't always agree with consensus and this is where they HOPE they gain an advantage on other teams.  If their analytics/evaluation is not high on Jones but thinks Berry is a perennial all-star and it turns out that way, then, yes, they would have been right.  Consensus, just as in Austin Martin and many others, is not always right.  Of course, Elias is not always right but we still don't have a full picture on his drafts because of Kjerstad's problems and and incomplete on Cowser.

The Orioles may choose Jones. However, if they don't I don't believe  it will because they had Jones rated #1 but didn't want to pay slot for whatever reason you come up with.  

 

[foxfield]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I want you to just think about this for a moment. All of these factors matter:

1). The Orioles have a stated goal of not caring about winning games.  They are/have been losing on purpose.  Seriously let that sink in.  They are literally throwing seasons away.

2) When you lose on purpose, you gain 2 advantages.  Advantage 1 is a high draft pick.  Advantage 2 is a high draft pool.  That’s it.  There are zero other things you gain by losing on purpose baseball wise. (Yea you also save money but I’m purely talking baseball stuff)

We are now going to have the third draft (Adley draft doesn’t count because they didn’t try to lose in 2018) in which this strategy has resulted in a high pick and in this draft, we have the chance to take high level, high ceiling talent with the first pick.  Even Elias has, in multiple interviews, talked about the HS kids and how high the ceilings are.   His words in the one interview were “this is a good year to have the first pick”.  

If this is a good year to have the first pick, why would you then waste that pick on a lower ceiling talent who is cheaper?  Why would you not actually acquire a top flight talent, whether it be Jones or, to a lesser extent, Green?

The Orioles have gone the “safer” route for the last 2 years and outside of a few guys, this was probably the better play given that the talent at the top of the draft was shaky the last 2 years outside of Lawlar and Tork.  After that, the top of the drafts haven’t been loaded.  This one, by all accounts, is.

Also, by all accounts, the Os lack elite talent in the system outside of a few guys who will graduate soon.  And don’t tell me who cares what BA says because Elias can certainly quote them and others all day long when he talks about the system rankings by those guys.  If you want to quote their system rankings, quote their draft rankings too.  If one matters and you are going to treat them and others as authorities on that subject, be consistent about it .

You can’t quote that and act like that means something for one ranking but then ignore other rankings and things they say.  It doesn’t work that way.

You also have the second highest draft pool ever, so you can still easily go overslot in this draft And it’s not like they are going overslot with every pick or anything like that.  They may get 2 guys that they go big on and they can still do that while paying slot with the first pick.

Taking all of that into consideration, the idea that they would take a lesser player on their board (and everyone else’s) for chances that players drop later, in a draft where elite level talent is available at the top, is stupid.  You are losing on purpose.  You are pissing in the faces of fans by putting a product on the field that is designed to lose games while charging them a lot for that product and the one advantage you have, you are going to take lesser talent?

I have already shown the the underslot strategy doesn’t typically produce you upper echelon talent and let’s be real, I didn’t need to show that anyway.  We all know the hit rates for the draft are low and once you get past the first round, it’s rare to produce anything, much less enough to make up the difference between a super star talent And a solid player.

So yes, you are damn right that I’m close minded on this.  The Os already have the best farm system.  They have already rebuilt.  It’s over.  There is no more rebuilding.  What’s left now is winning and getting the best players you possibly can into the organization for long term strength.  Not doing that, in this draft with the talent available and under the umbrella of how you have played out these last several years and how you need elite talent, it would be a complete and utter failure to make that pick (or Lee although he at least plays a premium position).

I don’t buy for a second that Elias thinks Berry is close to these guys.  That’s bullshit.  It’s him trying to overthink things and act like he’s the smartest guy in the room.  It’s him thinking he can get a second round talent in the 4th round.  Who cares?  Why does that matter?  You can do that anyway!!!  You don’t need to go cheap and stupid to accomplish that goal.

Earlier you asked about the hitting.  Ok great.  What about age, position, speed and upside?  Who does that favor.  Jones or Berry? Green or Berry?  Jones/Green or Lee?

How many elite, HOF level talents out of college get drafted high in the first round and how many of them were underslot guys that you took to get “more talent” later?  How often does that happen?  Who are the players that have done that?

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/every-no-1-overall-mlb-draft-pick.html

Best first picks from a college program have been Strasburg, Surhoff, Cole and Price.  After that, lots of failures or just good players.  Is that what you want with this pick?

Elias could take Jones, have him fail and see Berry accumulate 30 WAR and he still would have easily made the right decision.  

Summary:

Was it over when Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

I'm not getting worked up over anybodies mock draft.  And I think there are a couple issues with the post, but overall, I agree that if ever there is a year to take a HS kid with upside this would be the one.  But the comparison to we are trying to lose intentionally is simply gross oversimplification.  IF that were true they are truly truly doing a horrendous job at it.  Especially when compared to the team you excuse as trying to win in 2018.  That was the sorriest dysfunctional effort in the history of the program. 47 wins.  

But arguing the jist of the above?

Forget it, he's rolling!

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Let's just skip to your last paragraph.  Here's where you're wrong.  Elias has said that they have a system that doesn't always agree with consensus and this is where they HOPE they gain an advantage on other teams.  If their analytics/evaluation is not high on Jones but thinks Berry is a perennial all-star and it turns out that way, then, yes, they would have been right.  Consensus, just as in Austin Martin and many others, is not always right.  Of course, Elias is not always right but we still don't have a full picture on his drafts because of Kjerstad's problems and and incomplete on Cowser.

The Orioles may choose Jones. However, if they don't I don't believe  it will because they had Jones rated #1 but didn't want to pay slot for whatever reason you come up with.  

 

So if they take Berry, you will believe he is the BPA on their board?

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Summary:

Was it over when Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

I'm not getting worked up over anybodies mock draft.  And I think there are a couple issues with the post, but overall, I agree that if ever there is a year to take a HS kid with upside this would be the one.  But the comparison to we are trying to lose intentionally is simply gross oversimplification.  IF that were true they are truly truly doing a horrendous job at it.  Especially when compared to the team you excuse as trying to win in 2018.  That was the sorriest dysfunctional effort in the history of the program. 47 wins.  

But arguing the jist of the above?

Forget it, he's rolling!

You are completely delusional if you don’t think they have been tanking seasons. Even Elias has said winning doesn’t really matter.  They are/have been 100% losing on purpose.  They have definitely put teams on the field designed not to win games.  Acting as if that’s wrong means you just aren’t paying attention.

[RZNJ]

Btw, I hope Jones is a great talent/great player and I hope we take him. SG, myself, and Elias all agree.  The chances of getting a prodigious player is higher with a HS kid.  

As close to the vest as Elias plays things you have to wonder if these rumors have any value at all.

 

[RZNJ]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So if they take Berry, you will believe he is the BPA on their board?

Either BPA or in a group of 3-4 players they like which, reportedly, is how they took Correa.

I don't believe they'll pass on Jones if he's the clear #1 on their board.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Either BPA or in a group of 3-4 players they like which, reportedly, is how they took Correa.

I don't believe they'll pass on Jones if he's the clear #1 on their board.

So yea, you don’t think Elias will be wrong because you will just assume that is how he ranks them.  Got it.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Btw, I hope Jones is a great talent/great player and I hope we take him. SG, myself, and Elias all agree.  The chances of getting a prodigious player is higher with a HS kid.  

As close to the vest as Elias plays things you have to wonder if these rumors have any value at all.

 

To be clear, I don’t buy the rumors for this draft.  However, I am discussing this as if this is what they will do and going off the reports.  

[RZNJ]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

So yea, you don’t think Elias will be wrong because you will just assume that is how he ranks them.  Got it.

Elias will be wrong if he goes against consensus and Jones becomes a much better player.

He's not automatically wrong the day he makes the selection. 

[RZNJ]

One more thing. How many HS players has Elias drafted with the Orioles.

Henderson 2nd round

Hernaiz 5th round

Mayo 4th round

Baumler 5th round

Willems 8th round

That's not many but it gives me some confidence in their ability to evaluate that level.  

[foxfield]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are completely delusional if you don’t think they have been tanking seasons. Even Elias has said winning doesn’t really matter.  They are/have been 100% losing on purpose.  They have definitely put teams on the field designed not to win games.  Acting as if that’s wrong means you just aren’t paying attention.

Sigh....

You are a odd bird who can be disagreeable even when being agreed with....but that is your superpower...so.

I am not delusional and I said nothing approaching a dispute that the Orioles were not tanking.  Elias has never stated, though you very well know, that winning does not matter.  What he has said, was that during the previous three years, they were not focused on the results at the major league level.  He has not said that about this year though his approach has been pretty close to the same.

That is a virtual guarantee that there will not be many wins, and it has driven many fans crazy.  But that does not mean in any way that when the game begins they are not trying to win.  There is contextual difference in the two statements and your version, which is that the Orioles are losing games intentionally.  What I said was, this is a gross oversimplification.

That is to say, that saying it the way you do, is stating out of context what is happening.  And I held your oversimplified statement up to your other statement which was a direct comparison to the 2018 team, which had elite talent, a payroll ranked around 15, and somehow, while "trying to win" puked out 47 wins.  

I share your view that the O's could have made a stronger effort with a SP or 3B for this year.  I hope the draft brings us lots of elite talent.  

Overall, I think it is too early to judge Elias and am neither pro or con regarding his performance.  I believe the measurement of his value can begin somewhere around the end of this season. But I wholeheartedly support the total tear down and rebuild after 2018.  My ruling from the jury on the Elias' tenure today is probably still premature.

I also think the Angelos ownership must end before the organization finds sustainable success, but that doesn't mean success isn't possible without new ownership.  

You often advocate for payroll, and stated that 2018 was an example of how that proved the team was trying to win.  I do not like all of what I have seen since 2018, but again, if 47 wins is trying to win and what the Orioles are doing now, is intentionally losing, then they suck at it.   Does that mean they are not tanking?  I didn't say that.