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2021 Top 30 Prospects


Tony-OH
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I think all of us look forward to this time, especially when we fail to succeed at the ML level.  But this year and next should be really exciting and I am looking forward to getting to see all of Tony's hard work looking at what I hope is perhaps one of the best group of prospects in a very long time.

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65, 65, 60. Awesome. Ceilings of 75, 75, 65.

Not sure where Cowser, Henderson and Hall will fall on future grades, but I know their ceilings will be high. That's a nice top of the list.

Really interested to see where a couple of the international guys fall too. Next year I'm expecting to see a name (or 2-4) really shoot up the lists like Mayo did this year, and I'm not just thinking about the #1 overall pick.

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1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

65, 65, 60. Awesome. Ceilings of 75, 75, 65.

Not sure where Cowser, Henderson and Hall will fall on future grades, but I know their ceilings will be high. That's a nice top of the list.

Really interested to see where a couple of the international guys fall too. Next year I'm expecting to see a name (or 2-4) really shoot up the lists like Mayo did this year, and I'm not just thinking about the #1 overall pick.

I really like our top 10. And our top 20 is pretty solid too. You're right that it will be interesting to see how a lot of guys perform next year. Kjerstad, Baumler obviously. But also guys like Pinto, Basallo, Hernandez, Williams, Willem, De Los Santos, Rhodes, Trimble, McLarty, Lyons could emerge. A lot of potential at the lower levels. Will be fun!

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Thank you for all of the time and effort you put into this.  For the first time ever, I followed minor league box scores as much as major leagues.  This crop of young players will be exciting to watch and follow as they start their major league careers - whether they play in Baltimore or elsewhere.

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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I have to say this is the best top 8 I've ever done. Mix of high ceilings and high floor guys but what really stands out is they all have had success so far.

2008 might be close, but there was no consensus beyond the highly rated top 4 of Wieters/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta.   I can’t find the OH list from that year but I remember that Brad Bergesen was ranked like 15th.   Britton was in the org then but hadn’t really emerged.   I remember you had him 10th one year when nobody else had him on their radar.   Can’t say if it was the 2008 list though.   

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2 hours ago, Frobby said:

2008 might be close, but there was no consensus beyond the highly rated top 4 of Wieters/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta.   I can’t find the OH list from that year but I remember that Brad Bergesen was ranked like 15th.   Britton was in the org then but hadn’t really emerged.   I remember you had him 10th one year when nobody else had him on their radar.   Can’t say if it was the 2008 list though.   

Good Memory.. 2007 I had Britton ranked #10 when no one had him on a top 30 list and 2008 was the year I named Zach Britton #9.

1. Wieters - 18.4 rWAR
2. Matusz - 2.1 rWAR
3. Tillman - 8.7 rWAR
4. Arrieta - 23.2 rWAR
5. Rowell - Never made majors
6. Snyder - -0.1 rWAR (211vPAs)
7. Reimold - 2.8 rWAR
8. Spoone - Never made majors (injury)
9. Britton - 14 rWAR
10. Erbe - Never made majors

Total: 69.1 rWAR

https://web.archive.org/web/20081203233415/http://orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=1803

I'll bet that this Top 10 will out WAR 2008 Top Ten but that is not a bad top 10 overall..

Worth Noting 
Caleb Joseph - 4.6 rWAR
David Hernandez - 4.5 rWAR
Brad Bergeson - 2.9 rWAR
Oliver Drake - 1.1 rWAR

All were eligible for the list so the system ended up putting out 82.2 rWAR... 



 

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On 10/24/2021 at 3:09 PM, Tony-OH said:

It's that time of year once again where we give you an in-depth view of the Orioles system. This year, we will be adding in a risk rating based on level played at and injury history for each prospect.

Risk Assessment
Likelihood AAA AA A+ A- FCL/DSL
Never injured 1 2 10 16 25
Minor injury 2 9 15 20 25
Multiple injuries 9 15 20 25 25
Yearly injuries 10 16 20 25 25
Major Injury 15 20 25 25 25
           
Risk Likelihood Minimum Low  Medium High Extreme
Score  1-2 3-9 10-15 16-20 25


This list was produced after performing 100s of hours of video scouting, analyzing statistics, and conversations with player development personnel and professional scouts inside and outside of the organization.  

2020 Prospect List

Prospect Grading System:
Grade    Hitters                  Starters                  Relievers
80          HOFer                   HOFer #1    
75          Top 1-2                Top 1-2 #1    
70          Top 5                    Top 5 #1     
65          All-Star                 All-Star #1-#2    
60          Plus                      #2-#3                      Elite Closer All-Star
55          Above AVG          #3-#4                      Mid-Closer
50          AVG Regular       #4-#5                      Low-Closer/Elite Setup
45         Platoon/Utilty      #5-Swingman        Setup
40         Bench                   Up/Down                Middle/Long relief
35         Up/Down              Emergency            Up/Down
30         Org (AA/AAA)      Org (AA/AAA)       Org (AA/AAA)
25         Org (AA)               Org (AA)                 Org (AA)
20         Org (A Ball )         Org (A Ball)            Org (A Ball)

Rk Name Current Grade Future Grade Ceiling Grade Risk
1 Adley Rutschman 50 65 75 Minimum
2 Grayson Rodriguez 50 65 75 Low
3 Coby Mayo 30 60 65 High
4 Colton Cowser 45 50 60 Medium
5 D.L. Hall 45 55 65 High
6 Gunnar Henderson 35 50 65 Medium
7 Kyle Stowers 45 50 60 Low
8 Jordan Westburg 40 50 55 Medium
9 Heston Kjerstad 20 50 65 Extreme

One thing to point out is that, barring injury or unexpected horrible performance, at least 3 and perhaps as many as 6 of these guys won’t be eligible for these rankings next year.  

In other words, there will be a lot of top 10 movement in the next 12-18 months.  That is, of course, not unusual but what will be interesting to see is how much the Intl signings start to impact the top 10 of these lists.

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37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

One thing to point out is that, barring injury or unexpected horrible performance, at least 3 and perhaps as many as 6 of these guys won’t be eligible for these rankings next year.  

In other words, there will be a lot of top 10 movement in the next 12-18 months.  That is, of course, not unusual but what will be interesting to see is how much the Intl signings start to impact the top 10 of these lists.

Out of curiosity who's the 3rd guy you're referring to above?  Stowers?

Of course, we will also be adding the 1-1 pick and possibly more from next year's draft depending on how it goes.  

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15 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Out of curiosity who's the 3rd guy you're referring to above?  Stowers?

Of course, we will also be adding the 1-1 pick and possibly more from next year's draft depending on how it goes.  

Yes, Stowers.  I don’t see much reason why he shouldn’t get significant playing time this year unless 2021 was a fluke.  Either way, he won’t be considered for the top 10.

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1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes, Stowers.  I don’t see much reason why he shouldn’t get significant playing time this year unless 2021 was a fluke.  Either way, he won’t be considered for the top 10.

I would imagine the only way he retains rookie status without poor play would be injury. There's a scenario where Santander plays closer to the 2020 version which doesn't give a spot for Stowers, but in that case, I would imagine he and/or Mancini would be moved by the deadline. So I would think we see Stowers by at least August--barring injury. 

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19 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Good Memory.. 2007 I had Britton ranked #10 when no one had him on a top 30 list and 2008 was the year I named Zach Britton #9.

1. Wieters - 18.4 rWAR
2. Matusz - 2.1 rWAR
3. Tillman - 8.7 rWAR
4. Arrieta - 23.2 rWAR
5. Rowell - Never made majors
6. Snyder - -0.1 rWAR (211vPAs)
7. Reimold - 2.8 rWAR
8. Spoone - Never made majors (injury)
9. Britton - 14 rWAR
10. Erbe - Never made majors

Total: 69.1 rWAR

https://web.archive.org/web/20081203233415/http://orioleshangout.com/article.asp?ID=1803

I'll bet that this Top 10 will out WAR 2008 Top Ten but that is not a bad top 10 overall..

Worth Noting 
Caleb Joseph - 4.6 rWAR
David Hernandez - 4.5 rWAR
Brad Bergeson - 2.9 rWAR
Oliver Drake - 1.1 rWAR

All were eligible for the list so the system ended up putting out 82.2 rWAR... 



 

Per a now defunct website (the baseball gauge.com) that I posted about last winter, the top Oriole farm systems since 2000 in terms of total future WAR were: 

2009 (your 2008): 143.7 rWAR

2010: 110.9

2000: 105.4

2012: 103.1

2004: 98.8

This is all based on rWAR through 2020, so 2012 has undoubtedly passed 2000, and may have passed 2010.   

The discrepancy between the website’s 143.7 and your 82.2 is partially explained by timing.   You do your lists in the Fall, but Baseball Gauge does theirs as of just before opening day the following spring.   On December 8, 2008 we acquired Justin Turner, who was worth 29.0 rWAR through 2020.   Also, somewhere before April 2009 we signed Jonathan Schoop, who hadn’t played yet (so you wouldn’t have ranked him).   He was worth 18.0 rWAR through 2020.   That still leaves some WAR unaccounted for; not sure what.

By the way, 143.7 rWAR in a farm system is above average, but nothing amazing.  The top farm system of all time was the 1989 Texas Rangers, 433 rWAR.

Here’s my earlier post on the Baseball Gauge info.  I’m really sorry that site shut down.   


 

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