Pass on HS pitchers

[DocJJ]

I love Dylan Lesko and Brock Porter.  But let someone else gamble on them….  The track record for 1st round HS pitchers is awful:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.si.com/.amp/mlb/2018/11/19/mlb-draft-high-school-pitchers-velocity-tommy-john-surgery-problem
 

If Greene doesn’t blow me away this spring, I’ll gladly take one of Jung, Lee, Berry, Delauter.. 

[George Zuverink]

Let’s hope that Grayson Rodriguez are both exceptions because our history of picking HS pitchers in the first round has not produced many unequivocal successes. Going back to when the draft started in 1965 we’ve tried 17 times:

Scott Macdonald

Don Hood

Randy Stein

Mike Parrott

Dave Ford

Wayne Wilson

Chris Myers

 Richard Stahl

Joshua Cenate

Scott Rice

Tripper Johnson

Adam Loewen

Matt Hobgood

Dylan Bundy

Hunter Harvey

D.L. Hall

Grayson Rodriguez 

 

[panick]

2 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

Let’s hope that Grayson Rodriguez are both exceptions because our history of picking HS pitchers in the first round has not produced many unequivocal successes. Going back to when the draft started in 1965 we’ve tried 17 times:

Scott Macdonald

Don Hood

Randy Stein

Mike Parrott

Dave Ford

Wayne Wilson

Chris Myers

 Richard Stahl

Joshua Cenate

Scott Rice

Tripper Johnson

Adam Loewen

Matt Hobgood

Dylan Bundy

Hunter Harvey

D.L. Hall

Grayson Rodriguez 

 

Wasn't Johnson a 3B?

[DocJJ]

Your list left off worst 1st round bust ever, LHP Chris Smith out of Cumberland Tenn in 2001.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, DocJJ said:

Your list left off worst 1st round bust ever, LHP Chris Smith out of Cumberland Tenn in 2001.

He wasn’t a high school guy.  

[DocJJ]

oops... my bad

[DocJJ]

23 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

oops... my bad

It was a tiny NAIA school- that's why I mistook it for High School...

 

Let's hope DL Hall and Greyson Rodriguez buck the trend!!!

 

But I still think we should avoid a HS pitcher with the #1 pick!

 

[George Zuverink]

6 hours ago, panick said:

Wasn't Johnson a 3B?

According to the source I used, he was a RHP from Newport HS (WA).

[George Zuverink]

2 hours ago, DocJJ said:

 

Let's hope DL Hall and Greyson Rodriguez buck the trend!!!

 

But I still think we should avoid a HS pitcher with the #1 pick!

 

I agree. The article you posted was compelling, which is why I looked at our history.

The Nobel Prize for Draft Metrics will go to whoever can identify HS pitchers with good chance to grow  from 91 mph to 98 mph before becoming Rule 5 eligible.

[panick]

12 hours ago, George Zuverink said:

According to the source I used, he was a RHP from Newport HS (WA).

According to Baseball-Reference. com he was a 3B, and the only statistics shown for him were for batting and fielding.

[Frobby]

15 minutes ago, panick said:

According to Baseball-Reference. com he was a 3B, and the only statistics shown for him were for batting and fielding.

That’s where he ended up playing, but BB-ref also lists him as having been drafted as a pitcher.   Look at this list:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?year_ID=2000&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=year_round

Could be an error, or maybe the O’s changed their mind as to how to develop him.  Quite a few HS guys are drafted who have some talent at both.   

By the way, he played college football when his baseball career was over, and now he’s an agent.   Look here and scroll down.  https://www.apexbaseball.com/apex-team
 

[Frobby]

Another fun fact: Tripper Johnson was Ryan Mountcastle’s agent when he signed with the O’s.   

[ShoelesJoe]

Without actually looking up the numbers, I doubt we've done much better when picking college pitchers in the first round. 

[ShoelesJoe]

Okay, I had to look 'em up:

1982 -- Joe Kucharski

1984 -- John Hoover

1987 -- Brad DuVall

1987 -- Pete Harnisch

1988 -- Gregg Olson

1989 -- Ben McDonald

1990 -- Mike Mussina

1993 -- Jay Powell

1995 -- Alvie Shepherd

1999 -- Mike Paradis

2000 -- Beau Hale

2001 -- Chris Smith

2004 -- Wade Townsend

2005 -- Garrett Olson

2006 -- Pedro Beato

2008 -- Brian Matusz

2012 -- Kevin Gausman

2016 -- Cody Sedlock

That's a better hit rate than with High School arms, but still not great. Maybe the rule of thumb should be to not draft any pitchers at all in the first round. 

 

 

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, ShoelesJoe said:

Maybe the rule of thumb should be to not draft any pitchers at all in the first round. 

Elias seems down with that.