Trade Bait 2022

[ScGO's]

Now is a good time to start this discussion. Heading into this season, what players have value or the potential to create trade value? It's obvious we probably have another year or two of selling a couple pieces.

Below is my best guess as to who Elias would be willing to move for the right price.

Cedric Mullins - Has a high price tag obviously. However, we know this year is a wash competitively, could be better next year, but most likely not play off bound. That would leave Mullins here for 24 and 25 to realistically compete for the playoffs. If we can get back multiple pieces in a trade now that could help us compete by that time AND can be controlled several years beyond, it's worth listening. Will he cheaper in the meantime as you avoid Mullins arbitration years. Good sell high candidate too

John Means - Same as above. Plus Means is a bit older, probably at peak value especially if he had a good start to 2022. If you had a solid return on both Means and Mullins, it could infuse the upcoming wave of talent that could make us competitive for years

Trey Mancini - Best case scenario, he looks like 2019 Trey and we swing him at the deadline for a solid prospect or 2.  If he plays like he did last year, you might get a Andrew Cashner type return

Austin Hays - He's currently not on the block, nor should he be, but by chance he has a blow up season like Mullins did last year, then he would share the same circumstances in regards to service time as Mullins. We'll see if we cross that bridge

Cole Sulser - He was good last year. He's controllable but a tad older than the Youth movement coming, so probably reaching peak value this year

Anthony Santander- Already on 4th service year. Has shown flashes of what he could be. If he stays healthy and breaks out, he could fetch a really good return. This would be the year of peak value IF he performs.

Tanner Scott - Seems to always be on the cusp of a break out. If he can harness the fb and slider a little more, some will want the LHP at the deadline

Paul Fry- Depends on which Paul Fry shows up to camp. He could have been traded last year but Elias didn't like the return. He'll probably take it this year

Dillon Tate - No rush to trade, but saw his name come up last year. Needs to get better, and if he does, he might be worth trading as he has similar arbitration status as Mullins and Hays

Roughned Odor - If by chance he figures it out and hits a bunch of fingers, he'd be a trade deadline guy, but that was our hope for Maikel Franco

Jordan Lyles- Apparently there's a pretty strong market for 5.00 era innings eaters. Another potential trade deadline guy, ala Cashner 

Jorge Lopez - They paid a decent penny to bring back the inconsistent starter. If he thrives in a relief role, now would be a good time to trade the soon to be 29 year old in his fourth year of service

 DJ Stewart - It's a now or never year for Stewart. He probably has a better chance of getting cut than traded as it stands.  Seems to have the OBP tool, has to hit now. If he can be an .800 OPS OF/DH, he essentially becomes a poor man's Kyle Schwarber. At 28, he'd be a peak value should he perform.

 

 

 

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

I would take Hays and Scott off this list because I feel like they are two players that could really break out at any time. Hays is literally on the verge of peak value. 

2022 might be another really bad year, but that’s only because of our starting rotation. I think the lineup can be pretty good and the bullpen can be average. However, the rotation will drag down the pen eventually. 
 

RH - Sulser, Wells, Bautista, Lopez

LH - Scott, Fry, Perez

Looks like a decent pen. 

I’ve been all for trades and maximizing our 2023+ window. Especially with the salary explosion.  However, I think looking at 2023+ we have GR and Hall. So if we’re trading Means and Mullins. We better be getting back 4 SP prospects +. Losing Mullins would really hurt. We don’t have another hitter like him in the system and we’d really be hard up for a CF. I’d be more inclined to try and flip Means for two SP for 2023+. 

[ScGO's]

I'm not necessarily thrilled about trading Mullins but I know Elias is listening. If he is willing to listen on Mullins, he would listen on Hays for the right price too. Now if the O's burst on to the scene this season and compete, they are probably off the table. 

If Freeman leaves Atlanta, I wonder if Mancini would fill their 1B need? 

[Aristotelian]

If this is supposed to be in order of trade value I would have Hays closer to Mullins. Some here think he may even be better than Mullins long term. Both are pre arb. Definitely more valuable than Mancini, possibly more than Means due to being prearb.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I’ve been all for trades and maximizing our 2023+ window. Especially with the salary explosion.  

Has there actually been a salary explosion?   I’ll let Fangraphs figure that out when the winter is over.   The early contracts often tend to be the more generous ones - that’s why the players sign early.   

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Has there actually been a salary explosion?   I’ll let Fangraphs figure that out when the winter is over.   The early contracts often tend to be the more generous ones - that’s why the players sign early.   

The O's did spend 7M on Lyles.  That caused an explosion on the OH.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's did spend 7M on Lyles.  That caused an explosion on the OH.

It’s a clear overpay.   But, when you have relievers like Michael Lorenzen getting 1/$7 mm, Lyles is not necessarily the worst way to spend that sum.   

[HowAboutThat]

Stewart has no value. Fry has no value. Scott probably has no value. Mullins and Mancini have their own long threads.

[ScGO's]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If this is supposed to be in order of trade value I would have Hays closer to Mullins. Some here think he may even be better than Mullins long term. Both are pre arb. Definitely more valuable than Mancini, possibly more than Means due to being prearb.

There was no real order

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Stewart has no value. Fry has no value. Scott probably has no value. Mullins and Mancini have their own long threads.

They have no current value, but this thread discusses potential to build value as well.

[ScGO's]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

It’s a clear overpay.   But, when you have relievers like Michael Lorenzen getting 1/$7 mm, Lyles is not necessarily the worst way to spend that sum.   

I was shocked at first but did some research on the current market, and  1 year 7 million is spot on for Lyles to the O's

[ScGO's]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

If this is supposed to be in order of trade value I would have Hays closer to Mullins. Some here think he may even be better than Mullins long term. Both are pre arb. Definitely more valuable than Mancini, possibly more than Means due to being prearb.

A better order

Better bring in a haul - Mullins, Hays, Means

Some To little value; could gain much more value w/ good start to 2022 - Santander, Mancini, Sulser, Scott, Tate, Lyles

Currently no value, but bc of age, service time, and/or potential to reach peak value, IF they were to perform WOULD have trade value - Fry, Lopez, Odor, Stewart

 

 

[sportsfan8703]

48 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

A better order

Better bring in a haul - Mullins, Hays, Means

Some To little value; could gain much more value w/ good start to 2022 - Santander, Mancini, Sulser, Scott, Tate, Lyles

Currently no value, but bc of age, service time, and/or potential to reach peak value, IF they were to perform WOULD have trade value - Fry, Lopez, Odor, Stewart

 

 

Good assessment. I think we’re getting close enough to where we keep Mullins. However, we’re not going to win until we have a SP and some depth behind that SP.  

We have Means, GR, Hall for 2023. Maybe Lyles if he pitches well, or if at least 1 emerges from our current group other than Means and Lyles. I just don’t see how we compete in 2023 otherwise. 
 

Unless we really get blown away by an offer I think we wait and see what our SP looks like at the end of the year. Maybe $15mm per year SP next year. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, ScGO's said:

They have no current value, but this thread discusses potential to build value as well.

They won’t. Remember, value is what the other team perceives. Even if another team were interested, they won’t offer anything meaningful.

if Stewart has a hot month does that increase his value any? Scott walks too many guys and that won’t change, Fry dropped off a cliff. Is anyone going to take a chance on him? If he recovers maybe but that remains to be seen, and even if he recovers, will he have as much value next June as he did last june( none)?

[ScGO's]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

They won’t. Remember, value is what the other team perceives. Even if another team were interested, they won’t offer anything meaningful.

if Stewart has a hot month does that increase his value any? Scott walks too many guys and that won’t change, Fry dropped off a cliff. Is anyone going to take a chance on him? If he recovers maybe but that remains to be seen, and even if he recovers, will he have as much value next June as he did last june( none)?

If they perform they will have value. If not, they could be cut. Fry had value last year but Elias didn't accept the offer. If he performs this year, he probably accepts the deal this year