Trade Bait 2022

[ScGO's]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of course that plays into it.

Would you trade Rom and Haskin and I am guessing a 35+ FV third piece for the #35 pick and its $2.2M worth of slot value?

Dang, I don't think so, Rom is a pretty good prospect in a system thing on SP.  They must really want to draft somebody specifically.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of course that plays into it.

Would you trade Rom and Haskin and I am guessing a 35+ FV third piece for the #35 pick and its $2.2M worth of slot value?

I'd consider it.

Can't say for sure without a lot more information.

[MurphDogg]

1 minute ago, ScGO's said:

Dang, I don't think so, Rom is a pretty good prospect in a system thing on SP.  They must really want to draft somebody specifically.

I don't think the Orioles would make the trade because it would mean spending an extra $2.2M on the draft.

I can see how it makes sense for a frugal team like the Royals to want to save $2.2M on their draft and get prospects that are closer to the Majors instead. Lower ceiling but a higher floor than keeping the #35 pick.

[MurphDogg]

Conversely, should the Orioles consider / have considered trading their #33 pick for this package or a similar one?

Their would undoubtedly be certain people on the board that would curse the Orioles for being cheap, but it isn't a terrible package, certainly a lot more than what the Orioles used to dump their International Bonus slots for.

The Orioles have taken guys like Westburg, Norby, Gunnar Henderson and Cadyn Grenier in that range. Do you trust the Orioles to draft someone closer to Henderson than Grenier this year with the #33 pick?

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

And?

Would you be excited if the O's signed a FA to that deal for seasons 2023-2025?

I'd be having Trumbo flashbacks.

I think Trey is a much better and more complete hitter. Trumbo was a .310 OBP guy during his tenure here. Vs Trey .335. Trumbos 47 HR season as an outlier followed by 23 and 17. Trey has 24,24,35, and 21. He has 8 so far and the wall change has almost certainly cost him a few.

[waroriole]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What do you think the likely final win total for the Orioles is this year?  With or without Mancini.  My guess is that they're going to finish at least 10 games out of the final wildcard spot. It may be unwise to make long-term decisions on the heels of an 8-game winning streak for a team that was projected to 65-ish wins preseason.

I thought there was little to no chance of winning 75 this year. But, one thing I’ve learned is you don’t f with a winning streak. 

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Of course that plays into it.

Would you trade Rom and Haskin and I am guessing a 35+ FV third piece for the #35 pick and its $2.2M worth of slot value?

 

Yes

[LTO's]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Conversely, should the Orioles consider / have considered trading their #33 pick for this package or a similar one?

Their would undoubtedly be certain people on the board that would curse the Orioles for being cheap, but it isn't a terrible package, certainly a lot more than what the Orioles used to dump their International Bonus slots for.

The Orioles have taken guys like Westburg, Norby, Gunnar Henderson and Cadyn Grenier in that range. Do you trust the Orioles to draft someone closer to Henderson than Grenier this year with the #33 pick?

The chances of Waters being a productive big league piece seems pretty low to me. He's in his third AAA year and is just not even really competitive at the plate. I think I'd rather have someone like Fabian who also carries big hit tool risk but he'd at least be younger and I'd have multiple years of my own player development program. It would scare me to trade for someone like Waters. The Braves obviously traded Pache for a reason and kept Harris for the opposite reason. Those guys know what they're doing...

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I think Trey is a much better and more complete hitter. Trumbo was a .310 OBP guy during his tenure here. Vs Trey .335. Trumbos 47 HR season as an outlier followed by 23 and 17. Trey has 24,24,35, and 21. He has 8 so far and the wall change has almost certainly cost him a few.

And?

The wall isn't going anywhere.

I'd say his HR rate at home this year is probably more indicative of what we can expect in the future than his prior seasons.

I will agree that Mancini is the better hitter.  Not sure about "much", that's pretty subjective.

[MurphDogg]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes

I think I am undervaluing Waters.

Fangraphs seems to be an outlier at only having him at 40+, given that he was a top 50 prospect entering 2021.

He has a .707 OPS in 178 AAA games (mostly) since then, but he is certainly more of a sure thing to contribute at the Major League level than Rom given the plus defense. His floor is probably a better version of Ryan McKenna from the last year or so. A guy who is rosterable but doesn't quite contribute enough with the bat to be a starting outfielder.

[foxfield]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Of course it could also cost a shot at the playoffs if they trade him. 

You assume that...but I am not so sure.  The Orioles chances of maintaining this streak is more heavily dependent upon pitching...where we are currently walking on thin ice, than on the performance or leadership of Mancini.  He is fantastic do not get me wrong, but his leadership didnt appear this year and was not present last year.

If the Orioles could trade Mancini or Santander and bring back usable pitching NOW, it could actually prolong the competitive nature of the team in 2022 and beyond.  It would be terrible to not try and do this.

What I think is different, and should be obvious, is the Orioles are no longer in a position to simply dump salary.  They have a chance to maximize value.  And it is not out of the question that they can do that and also improve their current roster.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

I think Trey is a much better and more complete hitter. Trumbo was a .310 OBP guy during his tenure here. Vs Trey .335. Trumbos 47 HR season as an outlier followed by 23 and 17. Trey has 24,24,35, and 21. He has 8 so far and the wall change has almost certainly cost him a few.

From age 24-30 Trumbo had a 113 OPS+, Mancini a 116. They resigned Trumbo for ages 31-33.  That's what they'd be doing for Mancini.

Mancini's top through-age 29 comps are Yoenis Cespedes (last good, full season was at 30), Kevin Mench (29 PA after 30), Jason Kubel (.609 OPS after 30), Jay Gibbons (no explanation necessary), and Craig Monroe (.667 OPS after 30).  I think those comps may be overly pessimistic because they were generated prior to this year.  But, signing pretty good 1B/DHes to extensions after 30 are rarely good ideas.

I won't lose it if they don't trade him because I'm skeptical of the return on two months of a player of Mancini's caliber. But an extension shouldn't even be on the table unless it's ridiculously team friendly.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Does Mancini really have enough trade value to bring a return greater than his value to the O's?

His value to the O’s after this season ends is zero.   So anyone who promises some future value is better than that.  

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

And?

The wall isn't going anywhere.

I'd say his HR rate at home this year is probably more indicative of what we can expect in the future than his prior seasons.

I will agree that Mancini is the better hitter.  Not sure about "much", that's pretty subjective.

Does more complete hitter make sense? Trumbo was a low average/OBP  power hitter.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

From age 24-30 Trumbo had a 113 OPS+, Mancini a 116. They resigned Trumbo for ages 31-33.  That's what they'd be doing for Mancini.

Mancini's top through-age 29 comps are Yoenis Cespedes (last good, full season was at 30), Kevin Mench (29 PA after 30), Jason Kubel (.609 OPS after 30), Jay Gibbons (no explanation necessary), and Craig Monroe (.667 OPS after 30).  I think those comps may be overly pessimistic because they were generated prior to this year.  But, signing pretty good 1B/DHes to extensions after 30 are rarely good ideas.

I won't lose it if they don't trade him because I'm skeptical of the return on two months of a player of Mancini's caliber. But an extension shouldn't even be on the table unless it's ridiculously team friendly.

I really don’t care ….I just don’t buy into the Trumbo comp. Trumbo was a low average OBP player. Sure he was a power hitter so his OPS is pulled up due to his power numbers. I don’t pretend Mancini has as much power as Trumbo and don’t care. Offensively Trumbo was the prototypical Orioles mistake of the old regime. Good power, low average, low OBP, and tons of Ks. I’m hoping they pass on those types guys moving forward.