Trade Bait 2022

[HowAboutThat]

At the moment they have the value they have, which is minimal at best, I’m sure you’ll agree with that.

if they do something that is not likely, they will have more value than they currently do, and it is not impossible for that to happen. Scott Is who he is and does what he does, and if you didn’t have any value last year, he won’t have any this year when he’s considerably more expensive. Fry’s Collapse was so extreme it was probably physical, and we haven’t heard anything about it, so his situation is up in the air. Stewart is just terrible, I’m surprised he’s still here.

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

At the moment they have the value they have, which is minimal at best, I’m sure you’ll agree with that.

if they do something that is not likely, they will have more value than they currently do, and it is not impossible for that to happen. Scott Is who he is and does what he does, and if you didn’t have any value last year, he won’t have any this year when he’s considerably more expensive. Fry’s Collapse was so extreme it was probably physical, and we haven’t heard anything about it, so his situation is up in the air. Stewart is just terrible, I’m surprised he’s still here

I think Elias got offers for Fry and Scott, but they didn't like the return for the cost and control if both LHP.

Stewart is a strange one to analyze. He's never really been healthy. His career total of ABs is essentially the equivalent of a full season, 524 ABs.  He has career .734 OPS with 26 homers. IF he can stay healthy, and IF he can bat .250, he could be an .800 OPS guy with 25 to 30 dingers. IF that happened, he could have value as a LH swinging OF/DH/PH to a contender

 

[Ruzious]

10 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I think Elias got offers for Fry and Scott, but they didn't like the return for the cost and control if both LHP.

Stewart is a strange one to analyze. He's never really been healthy. His career total of ABs is essentially the equivalent of a full season, 524 ABs.  He has career .734 OPS with 26 homers. IF he can stay healthy, and IF he can bat .250, he could be an .800 OPS guy with 25 to 30 dingers. IF that happened, he could have value as a LH swinging OF/DH/PH to a contender

 

I don't agree.  He had 318 plate appearances last season with an OPS+ of 90 and a WAR of -.3.  That was a big opportunity, and he failed - both offensively and defensively.. And at 28 now, he's not a kid that I'd expect a step up.    

[ScGO's]

Now that the Correa rumors are dead, the O's are most likely in sell mode this season as they prepare to open up spots for the next wave of prospects.

With the FA market settling, the addition of the NL DH, contenders looking fo OF help, what is the chance we see a trade before opening day?

Elias is probably more likely to move bats before pitching this early in the season.

Mancini, Mullins, Santander, or Hays are my best guesses to be moved before the season starts. I saw a rumor that the Marlins are looking for a CF. Several NL teams are looking to add bats for the DH spot

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Now that the Correa rumors are dead, the O's are most likely in sell mode this season as they prepare to open up spots for the next wave of prospects.

With the FA market settling, the addition of the NL DH, contenders looking fo OF help, what is the chance we see a trade before opening day?

Elias is probably more likely to move bats before pitching this early in the season.

Mancini, Mullins, Santander, or Hays are my best guesses to be moved before the season starts. I saw a rumor that the Marlins are looking for a CF. Several NL teams are looking to add bats for the DH spot

I doubt the O's trade before the season.   Mancini is the most likely and he is coming off a 758 OPS last year.   Not someone that teams are going to pay up for.   The deadline is a more likely time for trades.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Now that the Correa rumors are dead, the O's are most likely in sell mode this season as they prepare to open up spots for the next wave of prospects.

With the FA market settling, the addition of the NL DH, contenders looking fo OF help, what is the chance we see a trade before opening day?

Elias is probably more likely to move bats before pitching this early in the season.

Mancini, Mullins, Santander, or Hays are my best guesses to be moved before the season starts. I saw a rumor that the Marlins are looking for a CF. Several NL teams are looking to add bats for the DH spot

We should absolutely be engaging the Marlins on Mullins, and I would also check in with the Cardinals about Means since they just lost both Flaherty and Reyes for an indeterminate amount of time with shoulder injuries.

[ScGO's]

46 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

We should absolutely be engaging the Marlins on Mullins, and I would also check in with the Cardinals about Means since they just lost both Flaherty and Reyes for an indeterminate amount of time with shoulder injuries.

If the price is right, I would trade means, but I wonder if they wait until they have pitching come up from the minors to replace him.

 

I think we would be selling high on means, Mullins, and Mancini right now.  Yes, even Mancini with the 758 ops would be selling high in my opinion. Because if he goes 758 again, I don't think they would be able to trade him at the deadline. I think with the NL dh, proving he was healthy last season, considering he missed 2020 after a near 900 ops in 2019, there is a current market for him. The return would probably not be flashy, but it could bring back value

I think Mullins and means could bring back several interesting prospects right now. Again maybe not top 100, but probably 5-8 talented prospects total between the two. Probably some risk reward types and some analytics driven moves that could become top 100.(think mayo/Ortiz/brandish/pinto)

I think Santander and hays should be held onto unless blown away.  Not sure if they bring back enough yet. If they can get through a season healthy and put up better numbers I believe their value jumps tremendously.

I could be wrong as well. So goes trying to judge peak value

 

 

 

 

[Just Regular]

How about the Twins on Means?   Now that they have zigged and zagged so nicely, they can't really mean for Dylan Bundy to pitch Game 2, right?

I am almost positive they are about to get Montas or Manaea from OAK, and they may consider using Royce Lewis or Austin Martin (or at least will be asked to by Beane).   I saw the Reds GM give quotes they are keeping Mahle and Castillo, but we'll see.

Most of the next half dozen guys on MLB's today Minnesota list after those top two infield bats are pitchers.

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

How about the Twins on Means?   Now that they have zigged and zagged so nicely, they can't really mean for Dylan Bundy to pitch Game 2, right?

I am almost positive they are about to get Montas or Manaea from OAK, and they may consider using Royce Lewis or Austin Martin (or at least will be asked to by Beane).   I saw the Reds GM give quotes they are keeping Mahle and Castillo, but we'll see.

Most of the next half dozen guys on MLB's today Minnesota list after those top two infield bats are pitchers.

Within a year the O's will have Grayson, DL, Means, Lyles and Bradish.  Why the heck would they trade Means?  Elias is trying to build a winner.

[CharmCityHokie]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

How about the Twins on Means?   Now that they have zigged and zagged so nicely, they can't really mean for Dylan Bundy to pitch Game 2, right?

I am almost positive they are about to get Montas or Manaea from OAK, and they may consider using Royce Lewis or Austin Martin (or at least will be asked to by Beane).   I saw the Reds GM give quotes they are keeping Mahle and Castillo, but we'll see.

Most of the next half dozen guys on MLB's today Minnesota list after those top two infield bats are pitchers.

Not a bad thought, since if MIN doesn't go deep in the playoffs this season and Correa opts-out, they basically spent 30+ million on nothing but some one-year advertising. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, CharmCityHokie said:

Not a bad thought, since if MIN doesn't go deep in the playoffs this season and Correa opts-out, they basically spent 30+ million on nothing but some one-year advertising. 

And somehow the organization will be able to play in 2023 and will not have hurt themselves long term.  

And if they struggle, they can always trade him in July too.

[waroriole]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And somehow the organization will be able to play in 2023 and will not have hurt themselves long term.  

And if they struggle, they can always trade him in July too.

Obviously only works for the really big markets like……..Minneapolis. 

[OriolesMagic83]

7 hours ago, ScGO's said:

If the price is right, I would trade means, but I wonder if they wait until they have pitching come up from the minors to replace him.

 

I think we would be selling high on means, Mullins, and Mancini right now.  Yes, even Mancini with the 758 ops would be selling high in my opinion. Because if he goes 758 again, I don't think they would be able to trade him at the deadline. I think with the NL dh, proving he was healthy last season, considering he missed 2020 after a near 900 ops in 2019, there is a current market for him. The return would probably not be flashy, but it could bring back value

I think Mullins and means could bring back several interesting prospects right now. Again maybe not top 100, but probably 5-8 talented prospects total between the two. Probably some risk reward types and some analytics driven moves that could become top 100.(think mayo/Ortiz/brandish/pinto)

I think Santander and hays should be held onto unless blown away.  Not sure if they bring back enough yet. If they can get through a season healthy and put up better numbers I believe their value jumps tremendously.

I could be wrong as well. So goes trying to judge peak value

 

 

 

 

I don't think you can trade Means or Mullins w/o a top 100 talent in return.  Just say no to a basket of spare parts.  Means and Mullins are both very affordable now, so I think the O's can and will keep them unless they are overwhelmed with an offer.

[ScGO's]

On 12/4/2021 at 8:56 PM, ScGO's said:

Now is a good time to start this discussion. Heading into this season, what players have value or the potential to create trade value? It's obvious we probably have another year or two of selling a couple pieces.

Below is my best guess as to who Elias would be willing to move for the right price.

Cedric Mullins - Has a high price tag obviously. However, we know this year is a wash competitively, could be better next year, but most likely not play off bound. That would leave Mullins here for 24 and 25 to realistically compete for the playoffs. If we can get back multiple pieces in a trade now that could help us compete by that time AND can be controlled several years beyond, it's worth listening. Will he cheaper in the meantime as you avoid Mullins arbitration years. Good sell high candidate too

John Means - Same as above. Plus Means is a bit older, probably at peak value especially if he had a good start to 2022. If you had a solid return on both Means and Mullins, it could infuse the upcoming wave of talent that could make us competitive for years

Trey Mancini - Best case scenario, he looks like 2019 Trey and we swing him at the deadline for a solid prospect or 2.  If he plays like he did last year, you might get a Andrew Cashner type return

Austin Hays - He's currently not on the block, nor should he be, but by chance he has a blow up season like Mullins did last year, then he would share the same circumstances in regards to service time as Mullins. We'll see if we cross that bridge

Cole Sulser - He was good last year. He's controllable but a tad older than the Youth movement coming, so probably reaching peak value this year

Anthony Santander- Already on 4th service year. Has shown flashes of what he could be. If he stays healthy and breaks out, he could fetch a really good return. This would be the year of peak value IF he performs.

Tanner Scott - Seems to always be on the cusp of a break out. If he can harness the fb and slider a little more, some will want the LHP at the deadline

Paul Fry- Depends on which Paul Fry shows up to camp. He could have been traded last year but Elias didn't like the return. He'll probably take it this year

Dillon Tate - No rush to trade, but saw his name come up last year. Needs to get better, and if he does, he might be worth trading as he has similar arbitration status as Mullins and Hays

Roughned Odor - If by chance he figures it out and hits a bunch of fingers, he'd be a trade deadline guy, but that was our hope for Maikel Franco

Jordan Lyles- Apparently there's a pretty strong market for 5.00 era innings eaters. Another potential trade deadline guy, ala Cashner 

Jorge Lopez - They paid a decent penny to bring back the inconsistent starter. If he thrives in a relief role, now would be a good time to trade the soon to be 29 year old in his fourth year of service

 DJ Stewart - It's a now or never year for Stewart. He probably has a better chance of getting cut than traded as it stands.  Seems to have the OBP tool, has to hit now. If he can be an .800 OPS OF/DH, he essentially becomes a poor man's Kyle Schwarber. At 28, he'd be a peak value should he perform.

 

 

 

 

 

With Sulser and Scott off the board who is next? I predict Mancini is moved this week too.

Of this original list, I think Mullins, Means, Santander, Hays, Fry, Tate, and Lyles are the most likely to gain interest as we move closer to the trade deadline. No rush to trade means, Mullins, or Hays, but they will offer your best return; Elias needs to figure out if those 3 are part of the next winning team or if he should sell high for prospects that are part of our next winning team. Tough choices there.

I think odor is getting cut, Stewart can't stay healthy enough to build value, and Lopez will only gain value if he is used in a late innings role.

[jamalshw]

24 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

With Sulser and Scott off the board who is next? I predict Mancini is moved this week too.

Of this original list, I think Mullins, Means, Santander, Hays, Fry, Tate, and Lyles are the most likely to gain interest as we move closer to the trade deadline. No rush to trade means, Mullins, or Hays, but they will offer your best return; Elias needs to figure out if those 3 are part of the next winning team or if he should sell high for prospects that are part of our next winning team. Tough choices there.

I think odor is getting cut, Stewart can't stay healthy enough to build value, and Lopez will only gain value if he is used in a late innings role.

Maybe, but I don't see Mancini going this week. I don't think there is enough of a need out there for him. I think the best option for him is to let him play the 1st half and hope he's closer to the 2019 version. That would yield something. Then, by July Stowers is hopefully ready and can take some of the ABs with a rotation in the DH spot.