Trade Bait 2022

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

Trade idea from Twitter:

https://twitter.com/hotstoveintel/status/1546824552130437120?s=21&t=X3G49VdcxEWrtdMATS5xNQ

Logical Orioles trade in mindset of buying & selling at same time? 

Send Anthony Santander back to Guardians for pitching. Namely, Peyton Bettenfield. Stick him in the Rotation immediately & promote Kyle Stowers to replace Santander

Swapping Bats for Arms works for both clubs

[LTO's]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-mlb-trade-deadline-roundtable

Not sure how this slipped under the radar but there's a lot of discussion regarding the O's including this fascinating note:

Feinsand: There has been a lot of chatter about the Orioles trying to deal for Pablo López. I’m not saying the Marlins are going to trade López, but that’s the type of player I could see Baltimore trying to add. A team like the Orioles isn’t going to be dealing for rentals, that’s for sure.

[Sports Guy]

The Marlins are trying to win now.  Not sure how you get Lopez without Mullins.

Lopez had some injury concerns last year.  Would love to add him but I’m not sure I’m giving up cheap, controllable assets for him.  Mullins?  Yes Lopez can be part of the deal.  A trade of 2-4 good prospects?  I don’t think so unless you can get away with not trading any of your top guys.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

Trade idea from Twitter:

https://twitter.com/hotstoveintel/status/1546824552130437120?s=21&t=X3G49VdcxEWrtdMATS5xNQ

Logical Orioles trade in mindset of buying & selling at same time? 

Send Anthony Santander back to Guardians for pitching. Namely, Peyton Bettenfield. Stick him in the Rotation immediately & promote Kyle Stowers to replace Santander

Swapping Bats for Arms works for both clubs

I would classify that more as a sell. We'd be trading a veteran for an unproven arm. Would need to know more about scouting on Bettenfield. That 5.9 K/9 jumps out as a risk factor. It does seem like Cleveland produces good pitchers. I'd also hate to help a team that is also contending for that wild card spot. 

[Aristotelian]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Marlins are trying to win now.  Not sure how you get Lopez without Mullins.

Lopez had some injury concerns last year.  Would love to add him but I’m not sure I’m giving up cheap, controllable assets for him.  Mullins?  Yes Lopez can be part of the deal.  A trade of 2-4 good prospects?  I don’t think so unless you can get away with not trading any of your top guys.

We'd definitely need to give up something good but I'd be all over Lopez if he is available. DL Hall for Lopez? Giving up Hall would sting but we'd have a top 3 of Grayson, Pablo, Means for two years. I could see that group winning some playoff games. Or Hays if they want an OF. 

[Sports Guy]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

We'd definitely need to give up something good but I'd be all over Lopez if he is available. DL Hall for Lopez? Giving up Hall would sting but we'd have a top 3 of Grayson, Pablo, Means for two years. I could see that group winning some playoff games. Or Hays if they want an OF. 

I don’t really want to trade top guys for Lopez but Hall could potentially be an exception because of his own injury/reliever concerns.  
 

Not sure about that one though.

[ScGO's]

At .500 and 3.5 games back in the WC and the Yankees coming to town, I have a feeling that the O's (as they probably should be) will be sellers.  Below is the current likelihood of trades in my opinion

Highly Likely

Trey Mancini - Might not be a huge return, but it will be something. If we struggle vs the Yankees next week, this will be easier as we slip out of contention and do the honorable thing by sending Mancini to a team in the playoff hunt.  It will be emotional, but probably the right thing for all parties included.  Love Trey, but he is replaceable too

Anthony Santander - By the end of this draft, we are going to be stacked with OFs in the system.  Anthony is probably at peak value right now and even though he has some control left, I think its time to move on.  He's losing a step in the OF too and our OF athleticism will improve when he is moved.  Will probably bring back a couple solid pieces since he does have that control left on his contract.

Jorge Lopez - His stock is shooting back up after he fully recovered from his struggles in MN.  Hopefully he kills it in the All Star game too as I think he's the sleeper of the trade pieces to bring back some really strong value. Bautista is ready to take over in the closer spot too.

Possibly Moved

Jordan Lyles - He's been great for us and what the O's needed, but I have to believe a contender will have better SP options to find on the trade market.  Perhaps he's a depth trade where we won't get a lot back but will save some salary. I guess we have to consider what is more valuable for the remainder of the season though: a couple lottery tickets and salary relief vs. the O's real need for an innings eater to finish the year

Dillon Tate - His name hasn't come up in any rumors that I have heard.  His name was talked about a lot earlier in the season as a trade piece. I think Tate is probably at or approaching peak value, but he's also controllable and part of a solid bullpen. Depends on what value is offered for Tate I suppose.

Unlikely Moved

Cedric Mullins & Austin Hays - I actually championed for them to be moved earlier in the year, but I think Elias sees the value in keeping them through some of their controlled years and letting the prospects season in the minors behind them for a year or two longer.  They may end up being swung in a deal a year or two from now, but I also think they may be helpful in bring us back to winning baseball

Roughned Odor - There was a time where I though he was starting to build a little value, but I think he's slowly becoming a replacement level player.  We need to put Urias/Vavra/Westburg at 2nd base NOW, so whether Odor is cut or traded for a bag of balls, its time for a change at 2B.  I just don't know who would want to trade for him at this point.

Bautista, Perez, Krehbiel, Baker, Akin - I saw a trade proposal earlier in the month by a national writer that suggested adding Bautista to a package deal.  I don't think any of these 5 should be moved, but possibly Elias tacks one on in a trade of Mancini, Santandar, Lopez, etc. to get the return he is looking for.

 

 

[ScGO's]

On 12/4/2021 at 8:56 PM, ScGO's said:

Now is a good time to start this discussion. Heading into this season, what players have value or the potential to create trade value? It's obvious we probably have another year or two of selling a couple pieces.

Below is my best guess as to who Elias would be willing to move for the right price.

Cedric Mullins - Has a high price tag obviously. However, we know this year is a wash competitively, could be better next year, but most likely not play off bound. That would leave Mullins here for 24 and 25 to realistically compete for the playoffs. If we can get back multiple pieces in a trade now that could help us compete by that time AND can be controlled several years beyond, it's worth listening. Will he cheaper in the meantime as you avoid Mullins arbitration years. Good sell high candidate too

John Means - Same as above. Plus Means is a bit older, probably at peak value especially if he had a good start to 2022. If you had a solid return on both Means and Mullins, it could infuse the upcoming wave of talent that could make us competitive for years

Trey Mancini - Best case scenario, he looks like 2019 Trey and we swing him at the deadline for a solid prospect or 2.  If he plays like he did last year, you might get a Andrew Cashner type return

Austin Hays - He's currently not on the block, nor should he be, but by chance he has a blow up season like Mullins did last year, then he would share the same circumstances in regards to service time as Mullins. We'll see if we cross that bridge

Cole Sulser - He was good last year. He's controllable but a tad older than the Youth movement coming, so probably reaching peak value this year

Anthony Santander- Already on 4th service year. Has shown flashes of what he could be. If he stays healthy and breaks out, he could fetch a really good return. This would be the year of peak value IF he performs.

Tanner Scott - Seems to always be on the cusp of a break out. If he can harness the fb and slider a little more, some will want the LHP at the deadline

Paul Fry- Depends on which Paul Fry shows up to camp. He could have been traded last year but Elias didn't like the return. He'll probably take it this year

Dillon Tate - No rush to trade, but saw his name come up last year. Needs to get better, and if he does, he might be worth trading as he has similar arbitration status as Mullins and Hays

Roughned Odor - If by chance he figures it out and hits a bunch of fingers, he'd be a trade deadline guy, but that was our hope for Maikel Franco

Jordan Lyles- Apparently there's a pretty strong market for 5.00 era innings eaters. Another potential trade deadline guy, ala Cashner 

Jorge Lopez - They paid a decent penny to bring back the inconsistent starter. If he thrives in a relief role, now would be a good time to trade the soon to be 29 year old in his fourth year of service

 DJ Stewart - It's a now or never year for Stewart. He probably has a better chance of getting cut than traded as it stands.  Seems to have the OBP tool, has to hit now. If he can be an .800 OPS OF/DH, he essentially becomes a poor man's Kyle Schwarber. At 28, he'd be a peak value should he perform.

 

Besides the DJ Stewart prediction, the rest of these names on this list were discussed pretty heavily in trade talks while 5 of the names on this list were traded for prospects

Tanner Scott, Cole Sulser, Paul Fry, Trey Mancini, and Jorge Lopez were exchanged for:

LHPs - Anotnio Velez, Cade Povich, Juan Rojas

RHPs - Luis Osorio, Yaqui Rivera, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson, Juan Nunez, Yennier Canó

OF - Kevin Guerrero

You can see that Elias really wanted to improve his pitching depth at all levels of the minors as he went light on pitching in his prior drafts and is still playing a little catch up in the DSL. Interesting list of young names that we'll have to revisit in 5 years and see how it played out. 

I think its also important to point out that Elias was able to save a few million dollars as well in these trades.

As for the rest of the list, I see Lyles and Odor entering FA.  Santander, Mullins, Hays, Means, and Tate will be on top of this list heading into the offseason, probably adding Mateo, Urias, Mountcastle, and maybe even a couple of our relievers.

I always like doing this activity because I think Elias tries to be as precise as he can on judging his players' peak values, acquiring younger prospects w/ higher risk/reward, maintaining a realistic budget for his long term plans to compete, etc.

Since Elias has gotten here, he has done his best to send the few assets he inherited at what he felt was their peak value in exchange for a yearly shot in the arm for the system.

In Year 1 it was Dylan Bundy, Jonathan Villar, and Andrew Cashner

In 2020 it was Richard Bleier, Tommy Millone, Miguel Castro, and Mychel Givens

In 2021 it was Jose Iglesias, Alex Cobb, and Freddy Galvis

The returns on these trades may not be overwhelming at first glance, but they created depth and competition in our system and many of the players we received are still currently in the system as they were young "lottery tickets." A few have made their MLB debuts and could potentially be contributors.  Others have flaked already (Jones, Matson, possibly Nevin)

I think Elias is hoping for big finishes to Hays, Mullins, Santander, and Mateo's seasons to see if he can swing them for a surge of upper level talent to add to the system, especially more pitching.