MLBTR take on Adley extension

[Just Regular]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/extension-candidate-adley-rutschman.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#comments

Nothing too much new for folks here...the story guesses Luis Robert+.   It doesn't elaborate if that's two years of inflation (lot of that recently!) or supposing Rutschman is an even bluer chip.   It also gives the comparison of Wieters at the end of this movie with about $60mm in career earnings, having started his MLB career 13 years ago.

Robert is six months older than Adley, and it looks like he maxes out at 8/88 if all options exercised, with FA years valued at $20mm before a single MLB rep:

6 years/$50M (2020-25), plus 2026-27 club options

• signed extension with Chicago White Sox 1/2/20
• 20:$1.5M, 21:$3.5M, 22:$6M, 23:$9.5M, 24:$12.5M, 25:$15M, 26:$20M club option ($2M buyout). 27:$20M club option ($2M buyout)

[Aristotelian]

18 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/extension-candidate-adley-rutschman.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook#comments

Nothing too much new for folks here...the story guesses Luis Robert+.   It doesn't elaborate if that's two years of inflation (lot of that recently!) or supposing Rutschman is an even bluer chip.   It also gives the comparison of Wieters at the end of this movie with about $60mm in career earnings, having started his MLB career 13 years ago.

Robert is six months older than Adley, and it looks like he maxes out at 8/88 if all options exercised, with FA years valued at $20mm before a single MLB rep:

6 years/$50M (2020-25), plus 2026-27 club options

• signed extension with Chicago White Sox 1/2/20
• 20:$1.5M, 21:$3.5M, 22:$6M, 23:$9.5M, 24:$12.5M, 25:$15M, 26:$20M club option ($2M buyout). 27:$20M club option ($2M buyout)

Of course those are club options, so arguably they are valued at $0. 

I would be very happy to see Rutschman get a Robert deal. At some point we need to start spending money and it would seem we have a little more leverage to get team friendly deals on our own players rather than free agents on the open market. We missed the opportunity with Manny, don't let this one pass us by. 

[Philip]

No extensions.

trade at peak value.

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

No extensions.

trade at peak value.

An extension will likely make his value higher.

You absolutely try to extend him now but you need to eat up 2 FA years.  

[Frobby]

From a thread I did about an Adley extension:

“Looking around, I see only two catchers who made more than $22 mm in their pre-FA years:  Posey, who signed a long-term deal about three years into his career and earned $38.5 mm in his first 3 Arbr aaa years and $20 mm in his 4th; and Realmuto who earned $30 mm.  Beyond them, the top pre-FA totals I see are Mauer $22 mm, Wieters $21.5 mm, B. McCann $17.7 mm.   Russell Martin, a Super-2, earned about $12.5 mm through his first 3 Arb seasons and $7.5 mm in his 4th.   Guys like Brian McCann, Yadier Molina, Yasmani Grandal and Salvador Perez made between $11-18 mm in their pre-FA years.”

In that context, 6/$50 mm seems a bit rich.   For whatever reason, catchers don’t do well in their Arb years.   Remember a couple of years ago Realmuto wanted $12.4 mm in Arb 3, the Phillies only offered $10 mm, and Philly won.  And that was after 3 straight seasons at 4.4/4.5/4.6 rWAR.

[Pickles]

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pursuing a long-term deal with Adley doesn't make a lot of sense.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Pickles said:

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Pursuing a long-term deal with Adley doesn't make a lot of sense.

OK to have that opinion, but why do you think so?

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK to have that opinion, but why do you think so?

Well, operating under the old rules, which is the only thing to do unless I want to speculate in ever-increasing ways, we already control him through his age 30 season.

Guaranteeing him 50+ million to buy out some age 30 FA seasons, seems like the risk way out weighs the reward.

[Pickles]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

OK to have that opinion, but why do you think so?

And I'll give you a little more.

I've had long debates over the last six months or so against what I think are very unrealistic expectations for this young man.

In one thread there seemed to be the commonly-held idea that he should be putting up an 850+ OPS and catch 130 games as soon as next year.  I kindly pointed out this was Johnny Bench territory.

In another thread anyone who suggested he wasn't far and away a better prospect than Wieters had been was pretty summarily dismissed.  Although there's no evidence at all that this is the case.

I think it is highly unlikely he becomes a middle of the order hitter on a championship level team.  And I think it is highly unlikely he stays healthy for long stretches of seasons.  Because he is a catcher.

I'll give a few quotes from his prospect report at BP that echo what I have been thinking:

"it was not the most dominant offensive campaign you’ve ever seen."

"There’s some risk he’s merely an average or slightly-above hitter in the majors."

"we do think there is some offensive regression risk in the majors"

"I suspect that Rutschman won’t provide the truly elite-level performance in the short-term that many are expecting, based on his sometimes uneven performance against inferior pitching to that which he’ll see in the majors."

Now, I just cherry-picked the worst things in his profile, and they and I agree that he is very likely to be an all-star catcher for a long time.

But I'd be very surprised if he's a middle of the order beastly bat, especially over a longer period of time.

And that seems to be the expectation of him, and the basis for which much of the extension talk is based around.

[Sports Guy]

Nothing Pickles is saying is unfair

[sevastras]

I didn’t want to draft a catcher 1-1, but since the Os did, he looks pretty good. I would value him similar to Buster Posey. That is including make up, which is one of those intangibles. I wouldn’t be hurt if they signed him to a 10 year $200mm deal now.  12/$225mm would be fine too. If I owned the team, I would build around him before Tatis(whom is an exceptional talent but I like the composer more and leadership of AR).  That isn’t me being a homer, I just value the intangibles more. 

[Moose Milligan]

Depends on how elite the bat is and if he can adequately play another position after catcher.  

 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, Pickles said:

And I'll give you a little more.

I've had long debates over the last six months or so against what I think are very unrealistic expectations for this young man.

In one thread there seemed to be the commonly-held idea that he should be putting up an 850+ OPS and catch 130 games as soon as next year.  I kindly pointed out this was Johnny Bench territory.

In another thread anyone who suggested he wasn't far and away a better prospect than Wieters had been was pretty summarily dismissed.  Although there's no evidence at all that this is the case.

I think it is highly unlikely he becomes a middle of the order hitter on a championship level team.  And I think it is highly unlikely he stays healthy for long stretches of seasons.  Because he is a catcher.

I'll give a few quotes from his prospect report at BP that echo what I have been thinking:

"it was not the most dominant offensive campaign you’ve ever seen."

"There’s some risk he’s merely an average or slightly-above hitter in the majors."

"we do think there is some offensive regression risk in the majors"

"I suspect that Rutschman won’t provide the truly elite-level performance in the short-term that many are expecting, based on his sometimes uneven performance against inferior pitching to that which he’ll see in the majors."

Now, I just cherry-picked the worst things in his profile, and they and I agree that he is very likely to be an all-star catcher for a long time.

But I'd be very surprised if he's a middle of the order beastly bat, especially over a longer period of time.

And that seems to be the expectation of him, and the basis for which much of the extension talk is based around.

As I see it, those are reasons not to pursue a long term contract that values Rutschman as a sure fire superstar.   Not necessarily reasons not to pursue a long term deal at all.  Any long term deal should take these risks into account and discount for them.   Now, it may be that the two sides evaluate what those risks are and what discount they warrant differently, and that they won’t be able to reach a deal at a point where Rutschman hasn’t had a chance to show at least a little of what he can do at the big league level.  But for me, I’d at least explore it.   

I’ll repeat here a proposal I think is fair: 6/$27 mm for the next 6 years, then team options at $18/20/22 mm, player options at $15/17/19 mm.   
 

[Pickles]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

As I see it, those are reasons not to pursue a long term contract that values Rutschman as a sure fire superstar.   Not necessarily reasons not to pursue a long term deal at all.  Any long term deal should take these risks into account and discount for them.   Now, it may be that the two sides evaluate what those risks are and what discount they warrant differently, and that they won’t be able to reach a deal at a point where Rutschman hasn’t had a chance to show at least a little of what he can do at the big league level.  But for me, I’d at least explore it.   

I’ll repeat here a proposal I think is fair: 6/$27 mm for the next 6 years, then team options at $18/20/22 mm, player options at $15/17/19 mm.   
 

Sure, if he's willing to take a cheap deal, I guess.

But again, how much have you gained by buying out his 31, 32 and 33 years in exchange for guaranteeing him 30+ million?

I see a lot more risk than upside.

[Sports Guy]

17 hours ago, sevastras said:

I didn’t want to draft a catcher 1-1, but since the Os did, he looks pretty good. I would value him similar to Buster Posey. That is including make up, which is one of those intangibles. I wouldn’t be hurt if they signed him to a 10 year $200mm deal now.  12/$225mm would be fine too. If I owned the team, I would build around him before Tatis(whom is an exceptional talent but I like the composer more and leadership of AR).  That isn’t me being a homer, I just value the intangibles more. 

A 10/200 deal right now is a severe overpay.