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MLBTR take on Adley extension


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On 1/9/2022 at 6:16 PM, Frobby said:

Insane.  

 Buster posey had a career earnings of $153mm over 12 years. With the rise in contracts, what would you say is not insane? 10/$180mm? 12/$180mm? When you are talking 10 or 12 years, you are splitting hairs when it averages out to $2mm a year or just shy each year. Who are you going to lose out on signing or resigning over that much?  Besides, the Os love to kick the can down the road so I am sure there would be 20 years of deferred payments. 

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5 hours ago, sevastras said:

 Buster posey had a career earnings of $153mm over 12 years. With the rise in contracts, what would you say is not insane? 10/$180mm? 12/$180mm? When you are talking 10 or 12 years, you are splitting hairs when it averages out to $2mm a year or just shy each year. Who are you going to lose out on signing or resigning over that much?  Besides, the Os love to kick the can down the road so I am sure there would be 20 years of deferred payments. 

Posey got his big contract after he’d won ROY and then an MVP award, and the Giants had won two WS with him behind the plate.  We have no idea if Rutschman will be anywhere near that level of player, or whether he’ll be more like Wieters, or not as good as Wieters.   Any long term contract now needs to factor in that risk very heavily, even if we think he might turn out to be as good as Posey.   

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7 hours ago, sevastras said:

 Buster posey had a career earnings of $153mm over 12 years. With the rise in contracts, what would you say is not insane? 10/$180mm? 12/$180mm? When you are talking 10 or 12 years, you are splitting hairs when it averages out to $2mm a year or just shy each year. Who are you going to lose out on signing or resigning over that much?  Besides, the Os love to kick the can down the road so I am sure there would be 20 years of deferred payments. 

Adley will make something in the area of 30M, give or take, for the first 6 years of his career.  (At least under the previous system..we will see if that changes)

So that means you are proposing signing him to a 5/170M extension.  
 

That’s an insane overpay.  If he is a HOF level catcher by the the time he gets to FA maybe he would get a contract along those lines but to pay it how would be insane.

Right now, if you signed him for say, 8 years (taking up 2 years of free agency), something in the area of 80ishM makes sense.

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8 hours ago, sevastras said:

 Buster posey had a career earnings of $153mm over 12 years. With the rise in contracts, what would you say is not insane? 10/$180mm? 12/$180mm? When you are talking 10 or 12 years, you are splitting hairs when it averages out to $2mm a year or just shy each year. Who are you going to lose out on signing or resigning over that much?  Besides, the Os love to kick the can down the road so I am sure there would be 20 years of deferred payments. 

If Rutschman turns out to be Posey, $180M for his career would be an excellent deal, but we have no idea that will be the case. The idea of doing a big extension now would be for him to accept a team friendly number in exchange for guaranteed dollars regardless of how his career turns out. Wieters earned $60M which included the O's overpaying on that QO, and there is no guarantee Rutschman will even be as good as Wieters. 

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What are the odds the Orioles sign Adley to any form of an early contract extension? It's something I'd like to see if he's as good as advertised, but I have my doubts on ownership going through with it. 

I'm not advocating for it, but AR signed to an early extension makes him a better trade asset if he is indeed an elite MLB catcher. 

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7 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

What are the odds the Orioles sign Adley to any form of an early contract extension? It's something I'd like to see if he's as good as advertised, but I have my doubts on ownership going through with it. 

I'm not advocating for it, but AR signed to an early extension makes him a better trade asset if he is indeed an elite MLB catcher. 

I'm just being my normal pessimistic self but I don't think ownership is going to be on board with early contract extensions.  I think if they were we would have already heard about it with Adley, Mountcastle, Means or Mullins.

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3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm just being my normal pessimistic self but I don't think ownership is going to be on board with early contract extensions.  I think if they were we would have already heard about it with Adley, Mountcastle, Means or Mullins.

I'm definitely being pessimistic too. If things really are different now following the 2018 season, then we should be hearing talks about early extensions for the players you mentioned. 

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When PA was in charge, they kept their own (except Moose) and signed some players to pre arb contracts.

What they haven't done is sign the player in the first year or 2 of his service time.  Will they do that?  I think they would if Elias thinks they should and a cheap, reasonable deal can happen.

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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When PA was in charge, they kept their own (except Moose) and signed some players to pre arb contracts.

What they haven't done is sign the player in the first year or 2 of his service time.  Will they do that?  I think they would if Elias thinks they should and a cheap, reasonable deal can happen.

Who did they sign to pre-arb multi-year contracts?  Markakis had filed for arbitration when they extended him so he may or may not qualify depending on your definition.  Who else?

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10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

When PA was in charge, they kept their own (except Moose) and signed some players to pre arb contracts.

What they haven't done is sign the player in the first year or 2 of his service time.  Will they do that?  I think they would if Elias thinks they should and a cheap, reasonable deal can happen.

I think if a front office has confidence in itself, this is the way to go.   Cleveland and Tampa have done it very successfully over the years.  

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Who did they sign to pre-arb multi-year contracts?  Markakis had filed for arbitration when they extended him so he may or may not qualify depending on your definition.  Who else?

Actually, I misremembered when Jones signed his deal.  And yes, Markakis qualifies.

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